scottbeard Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 18 hours ago, kzb said: It's right there in the current Labour manifesto: SPA no higher than 66. Oh yes, I hadn't spotted that. I don't really approve of most of their policies, but putting the brakes on those rises is a reasonable one. 5 hours ago, bearishonhouses said: What really matters is life expectancy conditional on reaching retirement age (be it 62, 65, 67 or 70). That is the period for which the pension has to be funded. If life expectancy is falling because of increases in mortality of those less than 21, it probably doesn't help much in being able to afford bigger pensions. The ratio of worlkers to pensioners would remain roughly constant. otoh, if overall life expectancy is falling because people are living fewer years in retirement - then yes, pensions should be increased. That's true. What's happening in practice though is complex - people are actually living LONGER at the moment, with mortality rates falling at all ages. However, the rate of improvement has stalled somewhat, which means life expectancy projections for the future are falling when this stalling is projected into the future. Kind of like saying "Bad news kid, we now think you're going to live to 88 instead of 90. But good news is that's still longer than the 86 your grandparents lived to." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onlooker Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 27 minutes ago, scottbeard said: Oh yes, I hadn't spotted that. I don't really approve of most of their policies, but putting the brakes on those rises is a reasonable one. That's true. What's happening in practice though is complex - people are actually living LONGER at the moment, with mortality rates falling at all ages. However, the rate of improvement has stalled somewhat, which means life expectancy projections for the future are falling when this stalling is projected into the future. Kind of like saying "Bad news kid, we now think you're going to live to 88 instead of 90. But good news is that's still longer than the 86 your grandparents lived to." Limiting the rise in state pension age to 66 means a more rapidly increasing number of state pensioners, and a more rapidly increasing dependency ratio. Under current law the State Pension age (SPA) is due to increase to 68 between 2044 and 2046, and the number of pensioners will rise from 12.4 million in 2017 to 16.9 million in 2042. Limiting state pension age to 66 will bust the UK budget much more than any Triple lock. AIUI the Govt has no plans to raise the SPA beyond 68, and if it does it will likely follow a calculation based on the decreasing rate of improvement in life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth and aged 65 is still rising. Just not so fast as it has for for many years up to 2010. The figures are stark and need IMHO some fundamental explanation. Partly it must be smoking which has almost be been eradicated, so that improvement which occurred mainly in the 80s and 90s is now dropping out of the figures. The effects of recent virulent flu epidemics and cutbacks in social care have also been blamed. However, I do wonder whether what is really happening is that we are seeing an asymptotic approach to the ultimate life expectancy of the human body. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankief Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Britain's Great Pension Crisis with Michael Buerk Tonight Channel 5 9pm. Not prejudging it, i'll have a look and comment tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted December 4, 2019 Author Share Posted December 4, 2019 26 minutes ago, frankief said: Britain's Great Pension Crisis with Michael Buerk Tonight Channel 5 9pm. Not prejudging it, i'll have a look and comment tomorrow. Quote Britain’s Great Pension Crisis With Michael Buerk 9.15pm, Channel 5 Do you know when you want to retire? Do you know how much money is in your pension fund? Do you know how much you should be putting in there each month? If these questions strike fear into your heart, this is the programme for you. The journalist Michael Buerk takes one couple as his guinea pigs and explores how they are sleepwalking into a penniless retirement, revealing what they can do to make sure they are looked after. A wake-up call to start saving. Ammar Kalia Well I'll prejudge then - bet they've got a mahoosive mortgage "to get on the ladder/ cos it's an investment innit/ cos rent's dead money/ BOMAD" etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 3 hours ago, onlooker said: Limiting the rise in state pension age to 66 means a more rapidly increasing number of state pensioners, and a more rapidly increasing dependency ratio. Under current law the State Pension age (SPA) is due to increase to 68 between 2044 and 2046, and the number of pensioners will rise from 12.4 million in 2017 to 16.9 million in 2042. Limiting state pension age to 66 will bust the UK budget much more than any Triple lock. AIUI the Govt has no plans to raise the SPA beyond 68, and if it does it will likely follow a calculation based on the decreasing rate of improvement in life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth and aged 65 is still rising. Just not so fast as it has for for many years up to 2010. The figures are stark and need IMHO some fundamental explanation. Partly it must be smoking which has almost be been eradicated, so that improvement which occurred mainly in the 80s and 90s is now dropping out of the figures. The effects of recent virulent flu epidemics and cutbacks in social care have also been blamed. However, I do wonder whether what is really happening is that we are seeing an asymptotic approach to the ultimate life expectancy of the human body. Yes but those calculations were done using previous ONS projections, which had significantly longer life spans than the most recent report. The SPA increases need reviewing downwards in the light of the new findings. You can bet if it was the other way round they would be reviewing them upwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onlooker Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 1 hour ago, kzb said: Yes but those calculations were done using previous ONS projections, which had significantly longer life spans than the most recent report. The SPA increases need reviewing downwards in the light of the new findings. You can bet if it was the other way round they would be reviewing them upwards. I'm not sure I follow your argument. The number dying in the UK each year is about 500,000 of which pensioners are say 450,000. So if life expectancy in 2042 is 2 years shorter than expected there will be 16 million pensioners instead of 16.9 million, not much of a difference. The rise in the SPA to 68 seems to be designed to save money on welfare, pay for the Triple lock, and keep people working longer if they can. It looks out to a future in 2042, and it is anyone's guess what happens then. My understanding is that it will continue to rise slightly in line with the rise in life expectancy. I don't think anyone is interested in lowering the SPA except Corbyn, because the amounts of money required are so large. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 1 hour ago, onlooker said: I'm not sure I follow your argument. The number dying in the UK each year is about 500,000 of which pensioners are say 450,000. So if life expectancy in 2042 is 2 years shorter than expected there will be 16 million pensioners instead of 16.9 million, not much of a difference. The rise in the SPA to 68 seems to be designed to save money on welfare, pay for the Triple lock, and keep people working longer if they can. It looks out to a future in 2042, and it is anyone's guess what happens then. My understanding is that it will continue to rise slightly in line with the rise in life expectancy. I don't think anyone is interested in lowering the SPA except Corbyn, because the amounts of money required are so large. Already, no-one can be forced to retire. If you want to keep working post-SPA you can do so. I am in two minds about that, I think at some point the oldies have to give younger people a go at the senior roles. With pension provision in this country being so poor, you are going to get loads of oldies hanging on in there. When you say it is anyone's guess what happens, well maybe, but that is not what the existing SPA revisions are based on. They are based on figures not guesses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simhadri Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, kzb said: With pension provision in this country being so poor, you are going to get loads of oldies hanging on in there. +1 We may see pension age crossing 70 in future. How many people will be alive until 70 eagerly waiting to withdraw their money ? Even if they're alive, there is little they can do with that money as they might not be able to travel/explore as they wanted in their mid 50s. Its like chasing an oasis in desert. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Simhadri said: +1 We may see pension age crossing 70 in future. How many people will be alive until 70 eagerly waiting to withdraw their money ? Even if they're alive, there is little they can do with that money as they might not be able to travel/explore as they wanted in their mid 50s. Its like chasing an oasis in desert. Yeah it's a difficult choice for some (those with a lot more financial resources that is). My choice has been made for me, along with the majority of the population, retiring in early 50's not really an option. I hardly felt any age at all until 55, now I feel more tired. By the time I actually retire I'll be too knackered to do much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 On 04/12/2019 at 10:53, frankief said: Britain's Great Pension Crisis with Michael Buerk Tonight Channel 5 9pm. Not prejudging it, i'll have a look and comment tomorrow. Hmmm.... Michael Buerk "having to continue working at age 73" ??? If Michael Buerk can't afford to retire, what hope is there for normal people ? Then, they were measuring against an ideal income of £27k for a "comfortable" retirement. By implication this seemed to be household income, not individual income, but we don't know if it includes the state pension(s). So a poor programme on many levels. But I trust people noticed the pension pot required was £500k, as I have been saying on here. The overall lesson was, as we know, that people are not saving anything like enough for retirement. The difference between the peoples' expectations of their retirement and the predicted reality was stark. I hope the people on here who complain about the living standards of pensioners watched this. Probably there is this same misperception of what it is going to be like, versus the grim reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayward Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 27 minutes ago, kzb said: Hmmm.... Michael Buerk "having to continue working at age 73" ??? If Michael Buerk can't afford to retire, what hope is there for normal people ? Then, they were measuring against an ideal income of £27k for a "comfortable" retirement. By implication this seemed to be household income, not individual income, but we don't know if it includes the state pension(s). So a poor programme on many levels. But I trust people noticed the pension pot required was £500k, as I have been saying on here. The overall lesson was, as we know, that people are not saving anything like enough for retirement. The difference between the peoples' expectations of their retirement and the predicted reality was stark. I hope the people on here who complain about the living standards of pensioners watched this. Probably there is this same misperception of what it is going to be like, versus the grim reality. How did they cover housing...and the long term consequences of current polices and market distortions for pensioners in the future...? Don't tell me that they brushed over it...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayward Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Michael Burke may want to work to 73...he has an interesting and high status career. Very different proposition for most workers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Just now, Wayward said: Michael Burke may want to work to 73...he has an interesting and high status career. Very different proposition for most workers. He said he had to work ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Wayward said: How did they cover housing...and the long term consequences of current polices and market distortions for pensioners in the future...? Don't tell me that they brushed over it...? There was a section on social care and how many have had to sell their homes to fund it. If one of you gets dementia it costs £1100 a week in a care home. Apparently "surveys say" people think it costs £377 a week on average. BTW, part 2 is on tonight, Channel 5. Instead of asking me what happened, try watching it. I get the feeling people are buried in their own social media bubbles complaining about pensioners and not seeing the other side of things. Edited December 5, 2019 by kzb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayward Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Just now, kzb said: He said he had to work ! I expect he has a million pound plus house and a considerable BBC pension and other savings and investments...something doesn't ring true for someone with his earning capacity. Why can't he downsize to Somerset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayward Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 1 minute ago, kzb said: There was a section on social care and how many have had to sell their homes to fund it. If one of you gets dementia it costs £1100 a week in a care home. Apparently "surveys say" people think it costs £377 a week on average. Okay thanks - so nothing on the UKGov's policy over recent decades of manipulating the housing market to restrict supply and inflate prices so an entire generation face a future of renting through to retirement and beyond. I would have thought that this coming time bomb of asset less pensioners needing support with housing would have been worth a mention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wayward said: I expect he has a million pound plus house and a considerable BBC pension and other savings and investments...something doesn't ring true for someone with his earning capacity. Why can't he downsize to Somerset. Not only that, TV presenters earnings are generally several £100k's per year. If I had just one or two years of his income I could retire off it. TV presenters are sucked into the Metrobubble and that is the only viewpoint we get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wayward said: Okay thanks - so nothing on the UKGov's policy over recent decades of manipulating the housing market to restrict supply and inflate prices so an entire generation face a future of renting through to retirement and beyond. I would have thought that this coming time bomb of asset less pensioners needing support with housing would have been worth a mention. It really wasn't that intellectual. Channel 5 remember. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Immediately after this programme I watched something from BBC3 on plastic surgery nose jobs. Apparently over 800,000 British men per year have cosmetic surgery. 41% of young people think cosmetic surgery is a normal thing in life. There was an Indian girl on, wanting her Indian nose reducing, and various weird looking gay men with felt-tipped on eyebrows. God knows how much NHS resource is spent on this. The lot of them should be putting the money spent on vanity into their pension schemes instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save me from the madness! Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, kzb said: The lot of them should be putting the money spent on vanity into their pension schemes instead. Maybe the current environment young people live in causes these mental illnesses. Bombarded with advertising 24/7 telling them how to look and live and comparing with their own situation living in a rented room is it any wonder some succumb to mental illness and believe the hype? Previous generations grew into mature adults with far less marketing and advertising in a world where all could get a secure home one way or another to build upon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 5 hours ago, kzb said: I hope the people on here who complain about the living standards of pensioners watched this. Probably there is this same misperception of what it is going to be like, versus the grim reality. No, the problem people have with the triple lock pension bride is that the current working generation is expected to pay for retirees who do did not save or contribute enough to their own or previous generations pensions. The extra burden of supporting the boomer generation is generational robbery, and its on top of the house price boom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 32 minutes ago, kzb said: God knows how much NHS resource is spent on this. You can't get it on the NHS. Blame the EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 10 minutes ago, Peter Hun said: You can't get it on the NHS. Blame the EU. They had an NHS surgeon on the programme itself ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 36 minutes ago, Save me from the madness! said: Maybe the current environment young people live in causes these mental illnesses. Bombarded with advertising 24/7 telling them how to look and live and comparing with their own situation living in a rented room is it any wonder some succumb to mental illness and believe the hype? Previous generations grew into mature adults with far less marketing and advertising in a world where all could get a secure home one way or another to build upon. It certainly looked like a sick society on that programme let me tell you. Granted most of it is not NHS funded but they are spending thousands on cosmetic procedures. Many of them will just like weird as they age and have multiple "revisions". Think Michael Jackson. But then he could afford it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 2 hours ago, kzb said: They had an NHS surgeon on the programme itself ! Most surgeons do private work don't they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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