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rantnrave

Nationwide Oct 2019

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Well, the initial results are always the best spin they can put on the numbers - ignoring some data, etc etc.

Then they revise the numbers andtheyll be -2% off.

 

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19 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Well, the initial results are always the best spin they can put on the numbers - ignoring some data, etc etc.

Then they revise the numbers andtheyll be -2% off.

 

It is down bit like doing a spin on some monthly management accounts let’s write down the company cars a little less so it looks like a profit 

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While the latest survey from the Nationwide indicates that UK house prices are barely moving, Samuel Tombs - chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics - reckons they could pick up next year.

He points to the fact that mortgage rates have been falling this year, and says this usually translates into higher prices.

"The average quoted interest rate for a 75% LTV [loan-to-value] 5-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 1.80% in September, 25bp [basis points] lower than at the start of the year.

"Past precedent suggests that the majority of the decline in mortgage rates will feed through to higher prices, not lower interest payments. Accordingly, we expect house prices to rise at a slightly faster pace next year."

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the BBC take on it..... 

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42 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Up £16 over the month.

Prices appear to be treading water

Price increases are yesterdays news.

What do the number of transaction look like?

 

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3 hours ago, spyguy said:

What do the number of transaction look like?

Transactions are slightly higher than the 2 year average.

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“The underlying pace of housing market activity has remained broadly stable, with the number of mortgages approved for house purchase continuing within the fairly narrow range prevailing over the past two years."

 

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I downloaded the data to pour over and try to make sense of it.

Interested in your opinions.  Since Q1 2018 to Q3 2019, prices in London, Outer SE, Outer MET have fallen. Prices in North are virtually the same and every other region is up inc Wales and Scotland. But why?

In the 2007 crash all regions followed London exactly, save for a quarter or two of lag, the low being Q1 or Q2 2009. Not this time.

Is this London adjustment an actual crash? Or an adjustment of out of kilter prices in London compared with the rest of the UK? If this was a full on crash the rest of the UK would be falling by now.... maybe they will later?

Edited by bear.getting.old

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  • 298 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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