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Robert Shiller says it as it is. 

Looks like there is no where to hide, all assets are in a bubble.

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/stock-market-crash-robert-shiller-i-see-bubbles-everywhere/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

My opinion is that GBP is still weak and so should price some protection as will Gold. Essentially stocks have returned 348% since 2009, which is clearly an over valuation. On that basis Shiller is suggesting they can only return 4% average per year over the next 30 years. Of course at HPC we know markets don't work in such linearly orderly fashion. So I am calling a crash soon, from which valuations will look much better. 

BTW, as the article starts, Monday the 28th October 2019 is the 90th Anniversary of the 1929 Black Monday crash - traders will be nervous! 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Looks like there is no where to hide, all assets are in a bubble.

...

Essentially stocks have returned 348% since 2009, which is clearly an over valuation. 

1.  I still think UK stocks are NOT in a bubble, because their value is over-suppressed by Brexit fears (they aren't necessarily UNDER priced, but just not OVER priced)

2. The 2009 price was essentially pricing in complete financial Armageddon.  I'm not sure that it follows that +348% in and of itself is "clearly" an over valuation.  However, US stocks are - by other measures - overvalued in my opinion.

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1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

1.  I still think UK stocks are NOT in a bubble, because their value is over-suppressed by Brexit fears (they aren't necessarily UNDER priced, but just not OVER priced)

2. The 2009 price was essentially pricing in complete financial Armageddon.  I'm not sure that it follows that +348% in and of itself is "clearly" an over valuation.  However, US stocks are - by other measures - overvalued in my opinion.

I don't disagree on UK stocks. Probably where my money is heading next, but I think they may get pulled down short term due to rising Sterling and US falls. 

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Gold, Bitcoin and various commodities is where I have 100% of my long-term savings other than my house. Too much money getting created for pure speculation.

Once the music stops who knows what will happen but I want to be holding things that people will need and can't be created via a click on a mouse.

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7 hours ago, doomed said:

Gold, Bitcoin and various commodities is where I have 100% of my long-term savings other than my house. Too much money getting created for pure speculation.

Once the music stops who knows what will happen but I want to be holding things that people will need and can't be created via a click on a mouse.

The only trouble with commodities is are you actually holding them.

If things get really bad, there is counterparty risk. 

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18 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

My opinion is that GBP is still weak and so should price some protection as will Gold. Essentially stocks have returned 348% since 2009, which is clearly an over valuation. On that basis Shiller is suggesting they can only return 4% average per year over the next 30 years. 

UK stocks have returned far less than 348% since 2009 and far less since 1999 (I'm pretty sure returns have been far below the average). So what returns can we expect from the UK over the next 30 years? Maybe 8 or 9%, even assuming the long run trend has fallen. If the long run trend hasn't changed, we are due at least several years of much higher returns.

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12 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

UK stocks have returned far less than 348% since 2009 and far less since 1999 (I'm pretty sure returns have been far below the average). So what returns can we expect from the UK over the next 30 years? Maybe 8 or 9%, even assuming the long run trend has fallen. If the long run trend hasn't changed, we are due at least several years of much higher returns.

Agree.  The UK has had a constraint though which has been poorly paid jobs increasing in numbers relative to well paid ones and excessive borrowing.

Part of the plan could be to push up wages, which would then reduce debts as a proportion of GDP overtime.  But if that happens IRs to do need to be controlled carefully to keep property inflation in check.

In some ways, the 20% annual wage increases during the 1970s laid the bedrock for the 1980s boom.

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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You should see the prices for examples of the more ''attainable'' performance cars from the 90's and 00's, I'm not talking Ferraris or Lambos, just ordinary Jap rally reps, French hot hatches, fast Fords etc 

Most good examples are at least treble what you could pick them up for less than 10 years ago.

Such a shame that what should be affordable cars to be driven and enjoyed by ''ordinary'' people have instead been turned into overpriced speculative assets where it only makes sense to buy them if you're going to hoard them away as a pristine garage queen.

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2 hours ago, nome said:

You should see the prices for examples of the more ''attainable'' performance cars from the 90's and 00's, I'm not talking Ferraris or Lambos, just ordinary Jap rally reps, French hot hatches, fast Fords etc 

Most good examples are at least treble what you could pick them up for less than 10 years ago.

Such a shame that what should be affordable cars to be driven and enjoyed by ''ordinary'' people have instead been turned into overpriced speculative assets where it only makes sense to buy them if you're going to hoard them away as a pristine garage queen.

My Aqua Green Honda Jazz was £200 about 2 years ago. Nice dint in the side, 2002 plate...but everything works ie Leccy windows, central locking and even the ‘cassette’ player. Anti theft device...ie it looks so bad no one will steal it. and it runs and runs. Surely a classic one day...might be worth £250. 
Best investment I ever made....now my son has it (punishment for crashing his own car). 

Joking apart I don’t do cars....but I get why some people love them. And it is a shame they are such high prices. I fancied an Escort Mk 1, nostalgia and a challenge to maintain...until I saw the price. 

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11 hours ago, Kosmin said:

UK stocks have returned far less than 348% since 2009 and far less since 1999 (I'm pretty sure returns have been far below the average). So what returns can we expect from the UK over the next 30 years? Maybe 8 or 9%, even assuming the long run trend has fallen. If the long run trend hasn't changed, we are due at least several years of much higher returns.

I agree that 1999 the FTSE was close to 7000 and today is just over 7300. 
Due to the changing companies listed within it then it’s a difficult comparison but I guess it’s as good as any. Seems to offer value but only because of QE and low rates...many feel where else do they go with investments? 

The Dow on the other hand feels like a bubble ready to pop. In 1999 it was 10000 (and then more) and had a huge rally to get there....now it sits at an eye watering 27000.
There are other dates we can use to illustrate points and I am genuinely not trying to be selective...I think it highlights the Dow bubble rather than illustrating the FTSE is ‘good value’  

Whilst I keep reasonably well informed on investments....my guess about the future is likely to be a wrong as the experts. 
Unprecedented QE and unheard of low interest rates make the whole system almost impossible to predict. 🤷🏻‍♂️😆

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19 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

My Aqua Green Honda Jazz was £200 about 2 years ago. Nice dint in the side, 2002 plate...but everything works ie Leccy windows, central locking and even the ‘cassette’ player. Anti theft device...ie it looks so bad no one will steal it. and it runs and runs. Surely a classic one day...might be worth £250. 
Best investment I ever made....now my son has it (punishment for crashing his own car). 

Joking apart I don’t do cars....but I get why some people love them. And it is a shame they are such high prices. I fancied an Escort Mk 1, nostalgia and a challenge to maintain...until I saw the price. 

Escort Mk 1, yes there will be very few of those that won't have decomposed into rust or just been scrapped as a working car, so a pristine one will change for silly money from car collectors. 

I do have a theory on collectibles though. Either they are absolute classics that will retain value, or they are things that appeal to nostalgia and were typically unaffordable or unobtainable to people between the ages 8 and 20 at the time. Once those people hit their 40s and 50s and have made money they then start paying crazy money for those things as collectors. This wave probably then dies out 20 years later once they retire and can't be bothered with the up keep. 

I'm not big into collecting, as I tend to like new shiny tech stuff. That said, I do have a bunch of those classic HP Calculators 12C, 15C, 16C etc. Good ones are silly money, seen one or two ebay for over £500.

 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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5 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Escort Mk 1, yes there will be very few of those that won't have decomposed into rust or just been scrapped as a working car, so a pristine one will change for silly money from car collectors. 

I do have a theory on collectibles though. Either they are absolute classics that will retain value, or they are things that appeal to nostalgia and were typically unaffordable or unobtainable to people between the ages 8 and 20 at the time. Once those people hit their 40s and 50s and have made money they then start paying crazy money for those things as collectors. This wave probably then dies out 20 years later once they retire and can't be bothered with the up keep. 

I'm not big into collecting, as I tend to like new shiny tech stuff. That said, I do have a bunch of those classic HP Calculators 12C, 15C, 16C etc. Good ones are silly money, seen one or two ebay for over £500.

 

HP calculators? Probably worth only sharing that information under a pseudonym on the internet 😆😆.

Joking apart, £500....clearly something valued by a set of collectors. 

My dirty collection is Viz magazines, the first 12 are rare, some very rare. I have all issues except issue 2 and issue 4. Yep, an original number 1 takes pride of place 😆😆

I paid daft money for it and a true comic collector told me they were rare but almost worthless. I was worried until I defended the £700 I paid...he explained that was actually good value...what he meant was the DC and Marvel stuff can go for £100k. (Ie £700/£2k is almost worthless in comparison😆😆

 It’s interesting when I realised I was way out of my league with some comic collectors. 😉

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2 hours ago, Pop321 said:

HP calculators? Probably worth only sharing that information under a pseudonym on the internet 😆😆.

Joking apart, £500....clearly something valued by a set of collectors. 

My dirty collection is Viz magazines, the first 12 are rare, some very rare. I have all issues except issue 2 and issue 4. Yep, an original number 1 takes pride of place 😆😆

I paid daft money for it and a true comic collector told me they were rare but almost worthless. I was worried until I defended the £700 I paid...he explained that was actually good value...what he meant was the DC and Marvel stuff can go for £100k. (Ie £700/£2k is almost worthless in comparison😆😆

 It’s interesting when I realised I was way out of my league with some comic collectors. 😉

Yeah, crazy world, crazy prices, but somethings are rare. 

Regards to Roger Melly and Billy the Fish! 

I shall now keep my calculators in a Brown Paper Bag under my trenchcoat. 

PS - I do get the interest in old publications, both books and magazines.My wife did have a decent collection of fashion magazines at one point, I am currently building up the 2000 AD ultimate collection for my eldest son who likes comics - but clearly these are booked reprints. Unfortunately I don't think modern comics are what they once were - mainly Paw Patrol with plastic attached these days. There are of course the graphic novels now, but no sure on the entry point for these. Again mainly reruns. 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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old ibm pc`s can go for a grand depending on which one. 😜

i dread to think how many i have chucked out over the years.  i should have stored them up.  old mca and eisa bus stuff is in demand.

 

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1 hour ago, longgone said:

old ibm pc`s can go for a grand depending on which one. 😜

i dread to think how many i have chucked out over the years.  i should have stored them up.  old mca and eisa bus stuff is in demand.

 

Does this include TokenRing networking? 

 

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On 26/10/2019 at 14:24, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I don't disagree on UK stocks. Probably where my money is heading next, but I think they may get pulled down short term due to rising Sterling and US falls. 

I wouldn't hang around too long. Start dripfeeding in now. Solid companies like Shell and BATS paying 6.5% dividends on low PE's and people say that yield is hard to get!

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19 hours ago, Pop321 said:

DC and Marvel stuff can go for £100k

Makes you wonder which things that are cheap now will be priced that way in 50 years' time. Fortnite skins?

I reckon that Newsweek cover jumping the gun and featuring Killary as Madame President will be a pretty penny.

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1 hour ago, Locke said:

Makes you wonder which things that are cheap now will be priced that way in 50 years' time. Fortnite skins?

I reckon that Newsweek cover jumping the gun and featuring Killary as Madame President will be a pretty penny.

I really really need to start loading up on box fresh nokia 3310's

they will be worth an absolute mint in 30 years time. 

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On 26/10/2019 at 14:30, doomed said:

 Bitcoin - Too much money getting created for pure speculation.

Isn't that exactly what Bitcoin is?

On 26/10/2019 at 14:30, doomed said:

 Bitcoin - I want to be holding things that people will need and can't be created via a click on a mouse.

Err, no-one needs Bitcoin. Isn't the click of a mouse exactly how Bitcoin is generated? :huh:

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40 minutes ago, HariSeldon said:

Isn't the click of a mouse exactly how Bitcoin is generated? :huh:

Go on then - click your mouse and generate some!

It is generated electronically, but certainly not by one mouse click.

Unlike fiat currency, which GENUINELY is generated by one mouse click, the moment your local HSBC bank manager clicks "Authorise loan" or the moment the Bank of England chairman clicks send on that email to say "yep, press ahead with that QE purchase" he creates it just like that.  That's why fundamentally fiat currency isn't really money.

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11 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Go on then - click your mouse and generate some!

It is generated electronically, but certainly not by one mouse click.

Unlike fiat currency, which GENUINELY is generated by one mouse click, the moment your local HSBC bank manager clicks "Authorise loan" or the moment the Bank of England chairman clicks send on that email to say "yep, press ahead with that QE purchase" he creates it just like that.  That's why fundamentally fiat currency isn't really money.

Fiat currency is money - medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value.

Fiat currencies tend to lose value over time. The currencies of well functioning economic and political systems lose value slowly.

It's worth noting the constraints on bank lending and central bank money supply increases. These explain why they lose value slowly.

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Just now, Kosmin said:

Fiat currency is money - medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value.

Fiat currencies tend to lose value over time. The currencies of well functioning economic and political systems lose value slowly.

Your own second sentence shows why the first is incorrect...?

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56 minutes ago, HariSeldon said:

 

Err, no-one needs Bitcoin. Isn't the click of a mouse exactly how Bitcoin is generated? :huh:

i think you will find actually we need bitcoin more than ever. Bitcoin will grown to be the one true wealth store which cannot be diluted. 

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17 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Go on then - click your mouse and generate some! It is generated electronically, but certainly not by one mouse click.

Unlike fiat currency, which GENUINELY is generated by one mouse click, the moment your local HSBC bank manager clicks "Authorise loan"

How is that much different to clicking "Start Mining" on a Bitcoin mining rig? Genuine question.

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  • 297 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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