2rocketman Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 I’ve been holding out for the crash for 5 years now. Although some people say “they’re still selling near me” I have not seen much evidence of this in the areas of of the south I keep and eye on. Most of the houses I’m interested in just sit on the market with the odd price drop every couple of months. I’m starting to think there could be an opportunity over the next quarter. Example: one house I have an interest in come to the market at 535k about a year ago, lot of drops in small increments & the obligatory change of estate agent and it’s now its 450k. Spoke with the agent and he said the vendor is now willing to negotiate. I said I would be looking for a 20% reduction and he seems to think that would be possible. I have another friend who just put in an offer on a house in Chichester 15% below asking and it was accepted without further negotiation. He just withdrew it because he thinks there was/is scope for further reduction. My plan now is to find & view 5 houses that I would be happy with, proof of mortgage in place, nothing to sell & ready to go. View each one twice so they know I’m serious and offer 25% below asking expecting it to be rejected. As the winter draws in, Brexit, recession looming, general election, Christmas, divorces, S24 round the corner etc etc. I’m am hoping someone caves for maybe -20%. It would still probably not be the bottom as personally I think they have a long way to fall but I am comfortable with something around that level, plus I can secure a fixed low rate mortgage. I am aiming to target houses that are maybe not in good enough condition to rent, also I look at each house up on Net House Prices to see what they paid for it. One I’m about to go in on is currently 475k but I know they are getting divorced and only paid 289k for it. Very small house, just a couple so they must be keen to shift it? New year new start and all that. They may just take it for a quick sale if there is no other offers on the table? It would still be a £67,250 profit and it looks tired so they’ve not spent any money on it. It’s hard to know when to make a move, I nearly did before, which looking back would of been a major mistake but I think between now any January with a good discount & a low rate mortgage might be somewhere in the middle. I never expect to get in at the bottom or out at the top. I’d be interested to know if anyone else who is using similar tactics.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, 2rocketman said: I’ve been holding out for the crash for 5 years now. Although some people say “they’re still selling near me” I have not seen much evidence of this in the areas of of the south I keep and eye on. Most of the houses I’m interested in just sit on the market with the odd price drop every couple of months. I’m starting to think there could be an opportunity over the next quarter. Example: one house I have an interest in come to the market at 535k about a year ago, lot of drops in small increments & the obligatory change of estate agent and it’s now its 450k. Spoke with the agent and he said the vendor is now willing to negotiate. I said I would be looking for a 20% reduction and he seems to think that would be possible. I have another friend who just put in an offer on a house in Chichester 15% below asking and it was accepted without further negotiation. He just withdrew it because he thinks there was/is scope for further reduction. My plan now is to find & view 5 houses that I would be happy with, proof of mortgage in place, nothing to sell & ready to go. View each one twice so they know I’m serious and offer 25% below asking expecting it to be rejected. As the winter draws in, Brexit, recession looming, general election, Christmas, divorces, S24 round the corner etc etc. I’m am hoping someone caves for maybe -20%. It would still probably not be the bottom as personally I think they have a long way to fall but I am comfortable with something around that level, plus I can secure a fixed low rate mortgage. I am aiming to target houses that are maybe not in good enough condition to rent, also I look at each house up on Net House Prices to see what they paid for it. One I’m about to go in on is currently 475k but I know they are getting divorced and only paid 289k for it. Very small house, just a couple so they must be keen to shift it? New year new start and all that. They may just take it for a quick sale if there is no other offers on the table? It would still be a £67,250 profit and it looks tired so they’ve not spent any money on it. It’s hard to know when to make a move, I nearly did before, which looking back would of been a major mistake but I think between now any January with a good discount & a low rate mortgage might be somewhere in the middle. I never expect to get in at the bottom or out at the top. I’d be interested to know if anyone else who is using similar tactics.... Where are looking, roughly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2rocketman Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 One end of the M3 to the other really. Someone between Twickenham, Winchester and as far as New forest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurlerontheditch Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, 2rocketman said: One end of the M3 to the other really. Someone between Twickenham, Winchester and as far as New forest. wow thats a big area! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, 2rocketman said: I never expect to get in at the bottom or out at the top. I too starting to see the potential of realism. Don’t expect to view before dark nights and frost, if we get any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flopsy Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 I think your strategy of viewing multiple properties and making offers on a shortlist of them is sound. We would do the same but there aren't 5 homes in our area where the seller seems happy to negotiate and we want to live in. There are one or two appearing now with multiple reductions and the photos look as if they are not inhabited so we may start doing viewings again and put together our own short list. We don't want to wait until there is a rock-bottom price and simply want a home we can live in comfortably, stay for 10 years and be able to afford if interest rates increase. I've noticed a tactic of EA's to try and find buyers who fall in love with a particular home and who are willing to pay over the odds. You have taken the emotion out of the transaction. If you make it clear that you want to buy a home but aren't willing to pay over the odds and are happy to wait then some EA's are going to find it difficult to cope with that. On tactic buyers seem to be using at the moment is to make an offer and then reduce the price when the valuation / survey is done if it is lower than their offer. The danger there is the seller will pull out. Also it means buyers who are not happy to take the risk miss out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simvastatin Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Don’t use the same estate agent for all five properties you dont know people circumstances one of them may accept the 20% off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2rocketman Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said: wow thats a big area! Yes it is, we lived in at each end and a couple of places in between so we are familiar. We’ve have had so long time to think about the merits of each place, lifestyle, commute, local attractions to us such as certain pubs, restaurants etc, cost of living. Each have pro’s cons for us. I guess it’s what ever attracts us the most & presents the best value for money that will make us jump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2rocketman Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, prozac said: Don’t use the same estate agent for all five properties you dont know people circumstances one of them may accept the 20% off May be the odd agent that has 2 houses that maybe be of interest but most likely all be with a different agent. That is the one downside to the plan. 5 or so agents calling and emailing all the time. That is not something I will enjoy. First viewing booked for Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2rocketman Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, Flopsy said: I think your strategy of viewing multiple properties and making offers on a shortlist of them is sound. We would do the same but there aren't 5 homes in our area where the seller seems happy to negotiate and we want to live in. There are one or two appearing now with multiple reductions and the photos look as if they are not inhabited so we may start doing viewings again and put together our own short list. We don't want to wait until there is a rock-bottom price and simply want a home we can live in comfortably, stay for 10 years and be able to afford if interest rates increase. I've noticed a tactic of EA's to try and find buyers who fall in love with a particular home and who are willing to pay over the odds. You have taken the emotion out of the transaction. If you make it clear that you want to buy a home but aren't willing to pay over the odds and are happy to wait then some EA's are going to find it difficult to cope with that. On tactic buyers seem to be using at the moment is to make an offer and then reduce the price when the valuation / survey is done if it is lower than their offer. The danger there is the seller will pull out. Also it means buyers who are not happy to take the risk miss out. I agree with all that. However once I agree a price, providing nothing nasty crops up on the survey I will honour it. One of the reasons I’m going in at -25% is because I want it to be rejected. I want to know I got every penny I can off. If someone was to say yes straight away I would have the same feeling as my friend that there was more to go. They were quick enough to bump the prices up I’m going to try and do the same in the other direction now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Good luck with your negotiating and purchasing! All I would say is - don't be too wedded to getting "X% off" whatever you buy, and look more at the price as an absolute figure. There are some houses where 10% off would be a good price, and others where even with 20% off it would be laughably too high. Don't get too anchored to the asking price and use other metrics to work out what you think something is worth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Don’t worry too much about the number of EAs - in the same area they talk quite a bit, without giving specifics anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2rocketman Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, scottbeard said: Good luck with your negotiating and purchasing! All I would say is - don't be too wedded to getting "X% off" whatever you buy, and look more at the price as an absolute figure. There are some houses where 10% off would be a good price, and others where even with 20% off it would be laughably too high. Don't get too anchored to the asking price and use other metrics to work out what you think something is worth. Yes, indeed. That is a very good point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1997 price plus 10% ? Kick em in the nuts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sithuk Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Work out the £/m² for similar properties that have sold recently. Use that as your baseline to calculate a valuation, then take your 25% of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2rocketman Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 42 minutes ago, Sithuk said: Work out the £/m² for similar properties that have sold recently. Use that as your baseline to calculate a valuation, then take your 25% of that. Yes, that makes good sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2rocketman Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 It could work out well for serious buyers on the sidelines here. Crazy prices gave us plenty of time to save a substantial deposit, in my case definitely more than I ever intended. Low fixed rates are still available with a good deposit. If a big reduction in price can be negotiated then lower stamp duty, plus the stamp duty fresh hold has been raised while waiting. It might all turn out okay. It’s looking a lot better than in previous years anyway. All I want is a average home in a good area with an affordable mortgage. All the above helps towards achieving this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Most vendors are deluded and won't sell it for less than they think It's worth to them. They name their price to EA who take it, in order to get the instruction. You can generally tell this By looking at an EAs books and their prices. You have to find the serious seller, ie care home, estate sale, and will only get a discount after the market has been tested(ie on the market for some time) . After this has happened play hard ball. I would say divorcees are not serious sellers as they are usually looking for a price to suit both parties and one is usually deluded. If you're the only buyer you can drop the price after survey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 How big a deal you are likely to get is all down to the vendors, find out as much as you can about them, why are they selling, have they also found their ideal home they really don't want to lose.....are they fed up with the selling process invading their life, are they eager to get their life back, start anew?......working on the relationship with the seller is key.......try to bypass the agent if you can.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, winkie said: .......try to bypass the agent if you can. A massive advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2rocketman Posted October 11, 2019 Author Share Posted October 11, 2019 It’s going to be a fair amount of hassle dealing with all the agents, multiple viewings etc, trying to cut through all the bullsh*t whilst gaining as much background information about seller as possible. The one I am viewing Saturday is inherited. Interior is to poor to rent, been on the market a long time etc so quite straight forward. It is more a case of how desperate is the vendor to sell. With weather like today he is probably dreaming of getting rid of it and buying a holiday home somewhere sunny! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregBowman Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 (edited) 22 hours ago, scottbeard said: Good luck with your negotiating and purchasing! All I would say is - don't be too wedded to getting "X% off" whatever you buy, and look more at the price as an absolute figure. There are some houses where 10% off would be a good price, and others where even with 20% off it would be laughably too high. Don't get too anchored to the asking price and use other metrics to work out what you think something is worth. Sound advice - in the crash of 2007 -2009 we rented then bought got 15% off a big house. This time rented for a year bought last Summer got about 10% off but smaller property and needed work. Now the area is alive with builders doing places up including ours. It would of cost me £20k pa rent a smaller house than the one we are in the knocking around including all new windows has only cost £35k There are more people chasing less properties this time so not as easy to get big reductions (in areas where you would want to stay 10 years) Edited October 11, 2019 by GregBowman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simhadri Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 If Brexit deal is struck with EU, we might see bit more activity in market than now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Simhadri said: If Brexit deal is struck with EU, we might see bit more activity in market than now. Sounds like a fairytale. As if people are actually sat at home saying "shall we buy a home to raise our children in?" "Not sure about that love, let's see what comes out of the talks with Varadkar this week and then decide". The market is anaemic because prices are far too high relative to incomes. Edited October 11, 2019 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mallish Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dorkins said: 1 hour ago, Simhadri said: If Brexit deal is struck with EU, we might see bit more activity in market than now. Sounds like a fairytale. As if people are actually sat at home saying "shall we buy a home to raise our children in?" "Not sure about that love, let's see what comes out of the talks with Varadkar this week and then decide". Agree the left wing media and remoaners love to say every ill in the world is down to Brexit. 23 hours ago, 2rocketman said: On 10/10/2019 at 12:38 PM, Sithuk said: Work out the £/m² for similar properties that have sold recently. Use that as your baseline to calculate a valuation, then take your 25% of that. Yes, that makes good sense. None at all - if they have sold recently why would anyone drop 25% - If a house the same as mine had recently sold at say 100k and someone the next week offers 75k I would laugh at him and not be interested even if he came back There is always the novel idea of buying property as a home to live in rather than seeing it as an investment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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