House prices could nosedive after no-deal Brexit, says KPMG

[PeanutButter]

Analysis by accountancy firm suggests nationwide decline of about 6% in 2020

The analysis of average house prices across the country showed no deal could trigger a nationwide decline of about 6% in 2020 and that and a drop of between 10 and 20% was “not out of the question” if the market reacted more strongly than expected.

 

[Pindar]

I wonder what they mean by "the market"? Does that mean the banks will decided to be more conservative in their lending practices, because, as far as I can see, "the market" doesn't determine the price of houses - it's the banks and their mortgage lending criteria. In this case "the market" is ordinary working people who just want somewhere to live.

Edited September 2, 2019 by Pindar

[warrior88]

27 minutes ago, Pindar said:

I wonder what they mean by "the market"? Does that mean the banks will decided to be more conservative in their lending practices, because, as far as I can see, "the market" doesn't determine the price of houses - it's the banks and their mortgage lending criteria. In this case "the market" is ordinary working people who just want somewhere to live.

Also interest rate in addition to credit availability and ease of credit!

[Locke]

10 to 20% is apparently a nosedive.

No way are these analysts older than 35

[mallish]

Heard this all before the referendum vote when Osborne said that prices would drop quickly by at least 18%.  

[Wayward]

[Monkey]

Could, if, may, might..

I could easily write these articles and do the analysis whilst having my morning movement.

There seems to be less facts reported and now its just opinions being reported.

Is this a symptom of requiring 24 hour news by every source,  bashing articles out every hour just to try and stay relevant?

Its more about gettings views of adverts (generating revenue) on the news page, than the content now. 

[scottbeard]

37 minutes ago, Monkey said:

Could, if, may, might..

I could easily write these articles and do the analysis whilst having my morning movement.

There seems to be less facts reported and now its just opinions being reported.

But when you're talking about possible future events you can ONLY talk in terms of opinions. 

There are no facts about the future!

That doesn't invalidate such articles though - they only way to discuss or plan for the future is via estimates, projections and opinions, we can't just say "the future is uncertain so it's not worth talking about." 

[kzb]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

But when you're talking about possible future events you can ONLY talk in terms of opinions. 

There are no facts about the future!

That doesn't invalidate such articles though - they only way to discuss or plan for the future is via estimates, projections and opinions, we can't just say "the future is uncertain so it's not worth talking about." 

Well it does mention "an analysis".  But it does not tell us what this entailed.

Presumably there are computer models of house prices.  Why do we not hear of them?

I suspect they've just been round asking their mates what they think, and done fancy stats on the responses.  Like that other thing the other week about food prices and Brexit.

[Wayward]

15 minutes ago, kzb said:

Well it does mention "an analysis".  But it does not tell us what this entailed.

Presumably there are computer models of house prices.  Why do we not hear of them?

I suspect they've just been round asking their mates what they think, and done fancy stats on the responses.  Like that other thing the other week about food prices and Brexit.

RICS monthly residential survey is exactly that but they don't suggest it is anything else...

[Nabby81]

Leaving Brexit aside I wonder when we will get to the point where Prices going down isn't reported as the end of the world ..

[Redranger41]

How much would prices have to reduce off the asking price for you to consider buying now? 

Or would you just wait no matter what post general election/Brexit.

Seller has reduced 25K off initial price and potentially accepting my offer which is 31K under the asking price. 

Property initially listed back in 2018 for 75k above what the listed price is now. 

Not sure whether the price potentially agreed now is a good price or wait for post Brexit etc 

[Locke]

9 minutes ago, Redranger41 said:

How much would prices have to reduce off the asking price for you to consider buying now? 

Or would you just wait no matter what post general election/Brexit.

Seller has reduced 25K off initial price and potentially accepting my offer which is 31K under the asking price. 

Property initially listed back in 2018 for 75k above what the listed price is now. 

Not sure whether the price potentially agreed now is a good price or wait for post Brexit etc 

What's the price? Your post is very different on a 100k house than a 1m house.

[Riedquat]

2 hours ago, kzb said:

Well it does mention "an analysis".  But it does not tell us what this entailed.

Presumably there are computer models of house prices.  Why do we not hear of them?

I suspect they've just been round asking their mates what they think, and done fancy stats on the responses.  Like that other thing the other week about food prices and Brexit.

Not necessarily a bad approach to take - experience is a very useful thing to have - how long will that job take, will it cost what it is claimed it will and so on. It's often not perfect but shouldn't be underestimated either. Any analysis tool, other than in the most mechanical cases, will rely on experience and, essentially, intuition, to set it up and select the most appropriate parameters, because the reality is of far more detail than can possibly be managed.

Of course the only experience some quarters have is of talking nonsense...

[29929BlackTuesday]

1 hour ago, Nabby81 said:

Leaving Brexit aside I wonder when we will get to the point where Prices going down isn't reported as the end of the world ..

System32Error

You must undergo your mind control sessions again NPC81

 

 

[Redranger41]

53 minutes ago, Locke said:

What's the price? Your post is very different on a 100k house than a 1m house.

Initially on for 350K. Then reduced by 25K

[Pop321]

On 02/09/2019 at 12:15, mallish said:

Heard this all before the referendum vote when Osborne said that prices would drop quickly by at least 18%.  

Yep. Post referendum we were told House prices would drop,  shares would plummet and interest rates would rise. 

The very exact opposite happened. I sold my holding at FTSE at 6500 and waited for the immediate drop...7600 made me really annoyed with the predictions and now we have ‘crashed’ to 7200. ??‍♂️??‍♂️

This is not a comment on Brexit nor is it a view in what ‘should’ have happened or what will happen. It is an observation. That the experts could NOT have been literally more wrong. Even a monkey randomly hitting the keyboard of a pc would have made a better guess. 

I am not sure any other profession could get things so wrong and still claim to be an expert.  

[Wayward]

9 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

Yep. Post referendum we were told House prices would drop,  shares would plummet and interest rates would rise. 

The very exact opposite happened. I sold my holding at FTSE at 6500 and waited for the immediate drop...7600 made me really annoyed with the predictions and now we have ‘crashed’ to 7200. ??‍♂️??‍♂️

This is not a comment on Brexit nor is it a view in what ‘should’ have happened or what will happen. It is an observation. That the experts could NOT have been literally more wrong. Even a monkey randomly hitting the keyboard of a pc would have made a better guess. 

I am not sure any other profession could get things so wrong and still claim to be an expert.  

Studies have shown monkeys are better than professional share pickers...

[Wayward]

6 hours ago, Redranger41 said:

Initially on for 350K. Then reduced by 25K

Where..? Could be one bed above a takeaway or 5 bed detached.  Depending on location,  such is the insane inequality in the UK..

[scottbeard]

11 hours ago, Pop321 said:

Yep. Post referendum we were told House prices would drop,  shares would plummet and interest rates would rise. 

The very exact opposite happened. I sold my holding at FTSE at 6500 and waited for the immediate drop...7600 made me really annoyed with the predictions and now we have ‘crashed’ to 7200. ??‍♂️??‍♂️

This is not a comment on Brexit nor is it a view in what ‘should’ have happened or what will happen. It is an observation. That the experts could NOT have been literally more wrong. Even a monkey randomly hitting the keyboard of a pc would have made a better guess. 

I am not sure any other profession could get things so wrong and still claim to be an expert.  

I'm not sure it was a genuine consensus of professionals that forecast that, wasn't it more George Osborne who was putting that view forward to scare people into voting Remain?  What type of professionals do you have in mind?

I think the main thing that a lot of people did miss about the FTSE though is that a plummeting pound IMPROVES the FTSE because it means all the foreign earnings of our FTSE100 companies are worth more in £ terms. 

[RDW]

Is this the same KPMG that told us Carrillion was a financially sound company.

They couldn't find their backsides with both hands.

[gp_]

37 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I'm not sure it was a genuine consensus of professionals that forecast that, wasn't it more George Osborne who was putting that view forward to scare people into voting Remain?

George Osborne was backed by supposedly neutral experts at the Treasury and  the Bank of England and the majority of bank and academic economists.

The problem with economic forecasting (or anything involving modelling a complex system) you can get the result you want by tweaking your model. For example, many remainer economists use "gravity models" which start by assuming that trade with nearby countries is more valuable than that with distant countries (the opposite of what you would expect from comparative advantage , which is the main reason for international trade in the first place). From that assumption they come to the conclusion that leaving the EU is a bad thing.

They also assume that anything that removes barriers to international trade is good - that was why they argued for joining the Euro!

[Riedquat]

I suspect one problem with the models is that you can see, to a degree, how things work now, and therefore get an inkling of what might happen if those methods ceased to work and nothing else came along to replace them. What can't really be accounted for is what alternatives will happen (even if it's possible to make educated guesses and rule out some of the more extreme possibilities). So you end up in a position where any disruption will automatically give a negative result.

[Redranger41]

19 hours ago, Wayward said:

Where..? Could be one bed above a takeaway or 5 bed detached.  Depending on location,  such is the insane inequality in the UK..

1 bed near Clapham south tube station. It’s about five min walk from the tube/common 

[IsThisRealLife]

On 03/09/2019 at 21:27, Pop321 said:

Yep. Post referendum we were told House prices would drop,  shares would plummet and interest rates would rise. 

The very exact opposite happened. I sold my holding at FTSE at 6500 and waited for the immediate drop...7600 made me really annoyed with the predictions and now we have ‘crashed’ to 7200. ??‍♂️??‍♂️

This is not a comment on Brexit nor is it a view in what ‘should’ have happened or what will happen. It is an observation. That the experts could NOT have been literally more wrong. Even a monkey randomly hitting the keyboard of a pc would have made a better guess. 

I am not sure any other profession could get things so wrong and still claim to be an expert.  

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”

When most of the population are panicking and rushing to sell in fear of big falls, just remember, most of the population have no idea what they are doing.