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Boom And Bust!

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Finally the news that we all knew months ago hits the mainstream. The Independant out tomorrow has a front page saying that boom and bust is back and highlighting the difference between city bankers earning 1 mill plus salaries and the rest of the country going bust with rising reposessions and bankruptcies.

When headlines like these come out people stop spending and start saving - a veritable catastrophe for the British economy (but good news for ftb's :) )

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'Boom and Bust Britain, 2006':

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_brit...ticle343102.ece

City bonuses hit a record £7.5bn,3,000 workers given at least £1m, Sales of penthouses, fast cars and champagne at all-time high, House repossessions up 70% to highest level since the 1991 crash, Mortgage arrears up 21%, Record 70,000 go bankrupt, a 51% rise

Also see 'Analysis: Why consumerism has become a problem':

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_brit...ticle343103.ece

What goes up must come down, in economics as in physics. Britons' seemingly unquenchable appetite for consumption helped keep the economy afloat during the roughest economic waters since the recession of the 1990s.

But eventually the music had to stop. The rise in personal insolvencies and mortgage repossessions indicates that the chickens are coming home to roost.

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Time's a ticking, when the panic sets "in" en masse...

it'll take awhile I rekon as people are oblivious to the signs right in front of them a few more stories like this and who knows where the limit is.

Kudos to The Independent.

tis a shame though that the bulk of their story though outlines how there are always those who win by the suffering of others.

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Sorry to p1ss on your bonfires, but how many people read The Independent?

Are they really saying more than what a lot of people already know or suspect?

I am all for a house price correction, and the sooner the better. But we know things are changing when we see this in The Sun & The Mirror, and frequently.

Regards

Frank

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It's just a shame that The Independent has such low readership figures. They deserve far more. In my opinion it is one of the best newspapers the UK has with some really excellent journalists. Robert Fisk is superb.

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Guest The_Oldie

Sorry to p1ss on your bonfires, but how many people read The Independent?

Are they really saying more than what a lot of people already know or suspect?

I am all for a house price correction, and the sooner the better. But we know things are changing when we see this in The Sun & The Mirror, and frequently.

Regards

Frank

Headlines are different though, people see them on the shelf in the paper shop and on station paper stands.

They may not read the article, but the headline is noticed.

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Headlines are different though, people see them on the shelf in the paper shop and on station paper stands.

They may not read the article, but the headline is noticed.

Absolutely - and they are carefully constructed for that purpose. Look at the last three words: 'Bust Britain, 2006'. They've even given a date...

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Are they not giving away learn Spanish CD today? Advertised on the telly I think. May attract more than usual.

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Sorry to p1ss on your bonfires, but how many people read The Independent?

Are they really saying more than what a lot of people already know or suspect?

I am all for a house price correction, and the sooner the better. But we know things are changing when we see this in The Sun & The Mirror, and frequently.

Regards

Frank

I doesn't matter, because by the time the masses get to realise that property comes down in price faster than it goes up it will be old news. That is why they are the masses and not entrepreneurs.

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Finally the news that we all knew months ago hits the mainstream. The Independant out tomorrow has a front page saying that boom and bust is back and highlighting the difference between city bankers earning 1 mill plus salaries and the rest of the country going bust with rising reposessions and bankruptcies.

When headlines like these come out people stop spending and start saving - a veritable catastrophe for the British economy (but good news for ftb's :) )

We're approaching the endgame.

On Radio 4 this morning there was a news item about house prices picking up and people willing to offer over the asking price for property, followed by a news item about soaring repossessions and bankcruptcies.

These seemingly contradictory indicators along wth the record bonuses for city bankers exposes the imbalances in the UK economy.

The question is - where do we go from here?

Edited by Bear Goggles

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We're approaching the endgame.

On Radio 4 this morning there was a news item about house prices picking up and people willing to offer over the asking price for property, followed by a news item about soaring repossessions and bankcruptcies.

These seemingly contradictory indicators along wth the record bonuses for city bankers exposes the imbalances in the UK economy.

The question is - where do we go from here?

This is just one article, try reading this one it shows another angle on things:

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e124e340-94ec-11d...00779e2340.html

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This is just one article, try reading this one it shows another angle on things:

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e124e340-94ec-11d...00779e2340.html

For me it says exactly the same thing. The gap between rich and poor is rising, people in wealthy areas are feeling flush, while the average earner faces rising costs and little or no wage inflation.

I still ask the same question. Where do we go from here?

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This is just one article, try reading this one it shows another angle on things:

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e124e340-94ec-11d...00779e2340.html

'Estate agents are reporting the highest levels of “gazumping” for a decade in prime areas of London as a drought of properties and bumper City bonuses fuel competition among buyers.'

The clue is in the first two words...!

Also, why would City high fliers but their bonuses into property?

Does anyone here personally know of one who has?

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For me it says exactly the same thing. The gap between rich and poor is rising, people in wealthy areas are feeling flush, while the average earner faces rising costs and little or no wage inflation.

I still ask the same question. Where do we go from here?

Social unrest - think poll tax demonstrations and 'race riots'

I honestly don't think the majority of the public are as stupid as is sometimes made out on here. It is very easy when you are surrounded by people with similar ideas (such as on here) to think that you are the only one who thinks like that and everyone else is happy with the situation. I don't think they are.

People who buy houses are not happy about paying £300K for a house they could have bought four years ago for half the price. But for some people they see this as the only way they can put a decent roof over their head.

The myth that there is a lot of good quality private rented accomodation out there is exactly that, a myth. Outside London there is very little good quality, long term family accomodation.

Most of the anecdotes on here about people buying talk of the 'nervouness' of recent buyers and how people are realising they can't fund the mortgage repayments. My impression is that there is a fatalistic resignation that people have to buy.... but they don't really want to.

Even people who already own and are trading up can see the massive jump in mortgage costs it will take to change that two bed terrace to a three bed semi.

I personally don't know anyone buying. Every person I know thinks the housing market is out of control and is going to crash.

Every person I know thinks we are heading towards a recession.

All I see is people cancelling holidays (job insecurity), re-training (job insecurity) and saving (fear of coming recession).

Look at the responses on other forums e.g the recent BBC discussion on house prices. Most of these people were saying the same thing as on this forum...co-incidence? No- there are lots and lots of people out there who are p1ssed off with the economy and house prices.

The only people pleased about house price rising are people who bought years ago and are cashing in (either emigrating or downsizing).

Even those who have seen the house prices rise and feel wealthy are starting to get p1ssed off. All very well 5 years ago when the family could mew to buy the kids that Playstation and new computer. BUT those little darlings are now 5 years older and leaving university with massive debts. Suddenly Mummy and Daddy are starting to realise that despite all their hardwork little Johnny and Jessica won't be buying the nice 3 bed semi they were raised in but a crappy bedsit above a kebab shop in the darkside of town.

Pent up demand...I don't think so...try pent up resentment

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Hi,

I am quite happy to eat humble pie on this occassion after highlighting the Independent as a pro-bubble VI in previous posts. I am quite surprised they broke ranks and started reporting what, seemingly for the past few years, is really happening out there. Booming property, booming repocessions and bankruptcies. It's not rocket science to link the two, Gordon Brown has been at the latter-day printing press for several years and non-headline inflation is catching up with the economy.

Well done Independent! I salute you.

Boomer

Edited by boom_and_bust

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Headlines are different though, people see them on the shelf in the paper shop and on station paper stands.

They may not read the article, but the headline is noticed.

Exactly. Here's the front page of today's Telegraph............

1376581.jpg

Record numbers go bust in 'live now' Britain

By Rosie Murray-West

(Filed: 04/02/2006)

The number of people going bankrupt has hit a record level as consumers struggle to cope with spiralling debt, Government figures showed yesterday

There has also been a sharp rise in repossessions as people failed to meet their mortgage repayments.....continued

Telegraph

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Home repossessions rose to 10,250 last year, up 70 per cent on 2004.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders said that this was an extremely low figure historically and the third lowest since 1983. But Vincent Cable, the Liberal Democrats' Treasury spokesman, said the figures were "a cause for grave concern".

There has also been a rise in the number of mortgages that are more than 12 months in arrears, up 23 per cent last year to 13,820.

@: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml.../ixnewstop.html

Hi,

12 months in arrears. I remember, in years past, going three or fours months in arrears on mortgages, on a couple of occasions, and genuinely fearing imminent repocession. I know the world is a more 'liquid' place nowadays but 12 months IS a longtime. I am not sure it would have been tolerated 10-15 years ago. If you added that figure to the processed repocession orders so far, you are not far off the repocession levels for 1989, when the last bubble had only just popped. Let's keep a tag on this over the year and see if it plays out. The old VI spinline about high interest rates necessary for a correction is looking less and less plausible all the time now (at a time incidently of rising unemployment to boot). Could you imagine what a run on sterling now would do to the economy with this outstanding debt and arrears level in the economy? Think about it before you sign your life away at the top of a bubble.

Boomer

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I bought the Indie today to show my support for their reporting on this occasion.

Seems like they were just one among many! The HPC inches ever closer, today we have taken a relatively big move... if it was like plate tectonics, we just had a tremor

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Exactly. Here's the front page of today's Telegraph............

1376581.jpg

Telegraph

and in other examples of spin (just for illustration - I have no intention of opening an off-topic can of worms here) please not how many pictures there are today of Sol Campbell pictured next to some *woman* or other.

In the shop, I also noticed two Celebrity Big Brother contestants on the cover of some girly mag (obviously I check these on a daily basis) with the headline "in love". The two were infact superimposed from two seperate photographs.

Now that my eyes have been opened to spin, I see it everywhere... and I'm glad for it.

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Two current side by side headlines on Moneyam Personal Finance are:

UK house repossesions surge

and

Home price rises accelerate

Quote from first article:'The moderate rises in unemployment of the past 12 months and higher numbers entering the initial stages of the repossession process, should mean that repossessions will continue to increase over the next few quarters,' said RICS' Stubbs.

'But its impact on the overall housing market will be limited, and will not stall the recovery in market activity and prices witnessed in recent months,' he added.

Hmmmmm

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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