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Tester

Fighting The Spin

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In the past week or two I've done the following:

Had comment published on BBC Have Your Say: Are House Prices Now Unaffordable?

Had two letters published in my Local Paper pointing out price drops: Horsham: County Times

In a local discussion forum I've raised the issue and argued that high house prices are bad: House Prices in Horsham

and today Working Lunch on BBC2 put one of my Questions to a Mortgage "Expert" comparing Interest only Mortgages to the Endowment Mortgage Scandal: Click on "Video" and see 23 minutes into the programme.

What have you done to fight the Spin?

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Every opportunity I get, whether it be in conversation or an internet message board, I talk the market down.

:D

In fact I had a big row the other night with my uncle who has a large BTL portfolio about house prices. He is under the impression that I should rush out and buy now "before it's too late" and that house prices "never go down" ansd how when he bought his first place he thought 4k was "a lot of money" and inflation would "take care of things"

:lol::lol:

Edited by devslim

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Every time someone on this site says the crash is underway – I have to reply that we have a change in direction but no proof of a crash as yet. There is spin on both sides of the coin!

I agree. A completed "crash" is something we see from hindsight. However, we should be able to see the signs that a crash is happening and these include the following:

1. Rising repossessions

2. Excess supply and increasing time on market

3. FTBs dissappearing causing chains to lock up

4. Rising unemployment rates

5. EAs seeking other employment

6. House prices levelling off sharply, e.g. from double digit inflation to low single digit inflation in one year

7. An emerging consensus that prices are no longer rising above inflation.

When all 7 signs are out there a HPC is underway.

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Fighting spin is good because one day you will be able to look back and say

"HA I F*CKIN TOLD YOU, BUT WOULD YOU LISTEN NOOOO."

But there is no need to fight spin, there are real factors and processes that mean the market can only fall.

It feels like watching your football team come back from 3 - 0 down to win 4 - 3. You’re oblivious it’s a replay of the 91 fixture.

You can make all the noise you like in the early days but nobody can hear you over the roar of the opposing fans. Only when they begin to doubt their position will you be heard and when everything you have been saying comes true you can goad them for having the audacity to think they knew better than you. They will blame the ref, poor old GB.

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I just made a sarky reply to all 50 people in the company when people were excited about potentially winning around 3 mil on the euro lottery sweepstake..: 'just enough to buy a studio flat, yay..'

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Hey Tester, did you notice that your question didn't make it to the list of questions under the article?

Personally I have brought up HPC dozens of times to as many people. I have upset* two people who are trying to sell their homes and couldn't work out why they had no offers as all they knew was the VI spin.

*in neither case was it diliberate

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In the past week or two I've done the following:

Had comment published on BBC Have Your Say: Are House Prices Now Unaffordable?

Had two letters published in my Local Paper pointing out price drops: Horsham: County Times

In a local discussion forum I've raised the issue and argued that high house prices are bad: House Prices in Horsham

and today Working Lunch on BBC2 put one of my Questions to a Mortgage "Expert" comparing Interest only Mortgages to the Endowment Mortgage Scandal: Click on "Video" and see 23 minutes into the programme.

What have you done to fight the Spin?

Had a letter published in the ''Harrogate Advertiser'' last week bemoaning the lack of action re-affordable housing............................

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Guest Winners and Losers

I have too broached the subject when it has come up in conversations. I am sure that fellow HPC'ers know the look that you get. A brief moment of thought, then complete dismissal, and a little laugh, then a comment about how the price of their house has tripled in the last 5 years (even in Leeds!), then a look that indicates you must be completely bonkers - like, don't you know that house prices never go down? The denial is HUGE and keeping the market alive.

Hey Tester, did you notice that your question didn't make it to the list of questions under the article?

Personally I have brought up HPC dozens of times to as many people. I have upset* two people who are trying to sell their homes and couldn't work out why they had no offers as all they knew was the VI spin.

*in neither case was it diliberate

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The level of ignorance about any kind of market is remarkable.

We need a poll, how many hours day do you spend on this or a related website looking into HPC stuff?

Because most of us on HPC.co.uk are experts compared with the masses we tend to assume others are aware of what is going on. The EAs and VIs are looked upon as experts as there are very few who take the opposing view. Little wonder Alf and Mavis Public think HPI will continue forever.

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Hi RB - yes, we are the ones who are doing extensive research and can claim, to some degree, to have at least a level of knowledge about all the different aspects. We also benefit from some very clever people with a good grasp of economics. All I can say is 'Education is expensive, but ignorance is more expensive'!

The level of ignorance about any kind of market is remarkable.

We need a poll, how many hours day do you spend on this or a related website looking into HPC stuff?

Because most of us on HPC.co.uk are experts compared with the masses we tend to assume others are aware of what is going on. The EAs and VIs are looked upon as experts as there are very few who take the opposing view. Little wonder Alf and Mavis Public think HPI will continue forever.

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Yes, I noted they didn't have the transcript of my question! I'll write to them to ask why!

The response to the question:

Will Interest Only loans be like the Endowment scandal of the 90's?

... by the Mortgage Broker was predictable as he said people should have an investment vehicle. However, what annoys me is the lack of counter question: eg. "How many Interest Only loans have been taken out in the past 3 years and what percentage of those have an investment package?"

It was very typical of the lack of inquisitiveness that has developed in journalism.

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Some guy published two great letter in the Times and Telegraph about the plight of FTBers, what a hero. Pithy, punchy letters with real thought and clarity.

Apparently he sometimes comes on hpc.co.uk

Times

Telegraph

Edited by RichM

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Not TTRTR then..

Some guy published two great letter in the Times and Telegraph about the plight of FTBers, what a hero. Pithy, punchy letters with real thought and clarity.

Apparently he sometimes comes on hpc.co.uk

Times

Telegraph

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I complained to the BBC and got this reply. Tried to post it on the BBC breakfast link but it wont let me!!

Dear Mr Jones

Thank you for your e-mail regarding 'Breakfast' broadcast on 28 January.

I am sorry if you were disappointed by the programme's coverage of the housing

market on this occasion.

In the course of that morning's broadcast 'Breakfast' offered a straightforward

news report on the number of first time buyers in the property market. It was

pointed out that this is thought to have dropped to its lowest level for twenty

five years and that they appear to be having to save harder and for longer in

order to get onto the housing ladder.

In addition there was a discussion with a first time buyer in a shared ownership

scheme - and a mortgage advisor. This was quite specific about how difficult it

can be for first time buyers to get into the housing market. It also looked at

some of the alternatives available such as shared ownership with housing

association.

Within the confines of this type of report and a short discussion piece it was

simply not possible to explore the pros and cons of a home ownership culture in

depth which seems to be were your concerns lie.

However, this is an interesting topic which no doubt the BBC will cover again

when there is a relevant opportunity.

Please be assured that your feelings have been fully registered and have been

made available to the production team and senior BBC management.

Thank you once again for taking the trouble to contact us.

Regards

Richard Carey

BBC Information

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think the very fact that they peaked 6 months ago and are GRADUALLY falling means there will not be a crash.

Yep that's right. House price crashes dont happen bit-by-bit like 2% per month/ 24% per annum for a few years.

Instead, what happens in a house price crash, is that they half in price overnight. This is what happens in a house price crash. As this is impossible, it won't happen! ;)

Taken from the horsham forums:

I think this time people are a lot more cautious. People like yourselves and various experts are advising caution. I do not see the mad bubble inflating frenzy that we saw in the 1980s. People are not buying for speculation they are buying because they need a home. The inflated prices are largely due to demand exceeding supply.

Care to pick holes?

:ph34r:

Edited by A Fool & His Borrowed Money

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Just been watching the working lunch interview with the mortgage broker. I cannot believe the BBC can interview this guy as an expert.

The guy is sitting there saying the only way a current FTB can purchase a low quality flat is to:

  1. Get a huge income multiple on your mortgage
  2. Get your parents to pay part or take the risk on your behalf on your mortgage
  3. If you are not allegable for the Key Worker Scheme, you will have to go an buy half a house with someone else
  4. If you can prove that you do not have a life and that you will be unfit by not going to the gym, then you can go to a lender who will lend you enough to keep you in debt until you die

The Working Lunch Presenter then agrees in a smug way and said one of his friends went in to a shared ownership scheme and he thinks it is a great idea, so much for inpartial interviewing!

IMHO this is a last ditch effort by the VI's to try and get every poor FTB to be overstreched and buy an overpriced home. This will mean that he and his friends in can keep their BMW's and overpaid jobs at the expense of the future of this country.

I really hope that some of these Estate Agents and Mortgage Brokers who make these comments get held responsible for the bankruptcies that will come as a result.

Rant Over... :angry:

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The mortgage advisors are accountable f

The mortgage advisors are accountable for their repossession rates but the estate agents are just generally a bunch of underpaid kids who haven't got a fecking clue what they are talking about, certainly don't know anything about the economy, try having a conversation with one about bubbles and you get a blank stare.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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