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Sisyphus

U S Unemployment Rate Falls

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US Jan unemployment drops to 4.7%

Average hourly earnings rise to 3.3% YOY

Dollar strengthens as market sees this as confirmation that the FED will continue raising rates.

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US Jan unemployment drops to 4.7%

Average hourly earnings rise to 3.3% YOY

Dollar strengthens as market sees this as confirmation that the FED will continue raising rates.

Im lovin it

US Jan unemployment drops to 4.7%

Average hourly earnings rise to 3.3% YOY

Dollar strengthens as market sees this as confirmation that the FED will continue raising rates.

check out the take from BBC

"BBC News: US jobs growth less than forecast"

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Im lovin it

check out the take from BBC

"BBC News: US jobs growth less than forecast"

not very bright - just looking at non farm payrolls for Jan +193k v s +250k avg expected - think this was down to bad weather in January. Wage inflation creeping up.

When are the heating bills due?

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not very bright - just looking at non farm payrolls for Jan +193k v s +250k avg expected - think this was down to bad weather in January. Wage inflation creeping up.

When are the heating bills due?

the US unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to a four-and-a-half year low of 4.7%, the Department of Labor reported.

140,000 jobs were generated in December, up from a previous figure for the month of 108,000.

Some 354,000 were created in November, up from a previously reported 305,000

does not seem a bad news at all, anyway i am only happy as dollar is up

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"its different this time"

"new paradigm"

etc etc

BoE, Brown and all those numpties must be sh*tting it now they know that sooner or later rates will have to rise and revert back to a non accommodative level. Which unfortunately for them will bring on the HPC.

Edited by I Told You So

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"its different this time"

"new paradigm"

etc etc

BoE, Brown and all those numpties must be sh*tting it now they know that sooner or later rates will have to rise and revert back to a non accommodative level. Which unfortunately for them will bring on the HPC.

Brown is doing a brown stuff, how appropriate :D

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Brown is doing a brown stuff, how appropriate :D

Browns choice: HPC or Sterling crash.

If he chooses a sterling crash by lowering IR Mr. Inflation unleases his destructive forces throughout the entire economy. Unliklely IMHO as Sir Alan is now Brown's advisior and Alan's policies are always anti-inflationary.

My guess is he will choose a "contained" HPC andcontinue to raise rates and let the house market find its true level, somewhere around 3.5 to 3.75 times earnings. Sterling will fall somewhat, maybe 10%, but dreaded inflation will be avoided and the pensioners will be happy with the better return on their savings.

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Thats a good point actually, because i think the pensioners are the most active part of the electorate.

Not 100% on this but ultimately any politician will do almost anything to stay in power so he may upset the BLT brigade but if they dont vote will he be that bothered?

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Browns choice: HPC or Sterling crash.

If he chooses a sterling crash by lowering IR Mr. Inflation unleases his destructive forces throughout the entire economy. Unliklely IMHO as Sir Alan is now Brown's advisior and Alan's policies are always anti-inflationary.

My guess is he will choose a "contained" HPC andcontinue to raise rates and let the house market find its true level, somewhere around 3.5 to 3.75 times earnings. Sterling will fall somewhat, maybe 10%, but dreaded inflation will be avoided and the pensioners will be happy with the better return on their savings.

What you're saying makes sense. But what sort of containment can you achieve on a market that's risen 350% in a decade. Don't forget that the public at large still expect long term flat to easing rates.

BTW I don't have a poll button - could someone kick off a poll about where rates are going ie. next move: UP or Down.

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What you're saying makes sense. But what sort of containment can you achieve on a market that's risen 350% in a decade. Don't forget that the public at large still expect long term flat to easing rates.

BTW I don't have a poll button - could someone kick off a poll about where rates are going ie. next move: UP or Down.

By "contained" I mean an end to the spin and acceptance that prices need to return to normal ranges in relation to earnings. By raising rates incrementally he will show that he is trying to avoid a crash but knowing a sharp correction is coming one way or the other. Al will probably tell him to get on with it and not to try to stand against the tide. If he continues down the present path with excessive liquidity he will face a far bigger problem with inflation.

Brown really has got himself into a fine mess but I do not see how he has any way out. Its raise the rates and allow a HPC or far worse if rates remain where they are or go lower.

Edited by Realistbear

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By "contained" I mean an end to the spin and acceptance that prices need to return to normal ranges in relation to earnings. By raising rates incrementally he will show that he is trying to avoid a crash but knowing a sharp correction is coming one way or the other. Al will probably tell him to get on with it and not to try to stand against the tide. If he continues down the present path with excessive liquidity he will face a far bigger problem with inflation.

Brown really has got himself into a fine mess but I do not see how he has any way out. Its raise the rates and allow a HPC or far worse if rates remain where they are or go lower.

I think you're on the money. I honestly think that people do not expect rates to rise - it will be a shock to the market. BTW MPC is supposed to be independant ... :)

Do you fancy kicking off that poll?

Edited by Sisyphus

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I think you're on the money. I honestly think that people do not expect rates to rise - it will be a shock to the market. BTW MPC is supposed to be independant ... :)

Do you fancy kicking off that poll?

Agree on a poll but I am not that computer literate!

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Brown really has got himself into a fine mess but I do not see how he has any way out. Its raise the rates and allow a HPC or far worse if rates remain where they are or go lower.

Given the choice between HPC and having a recession – wouldn’t Brown be better of just devaluing the pound (not too much)

If the pound drops then inflation rises (which they will ignore) but also it stops people spending on imports and will help UK deficit, business, manufacturing etc. wouldn’t more people be happier with a lower pound?

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A HPC is merely a return to reality. Any society needs reality to function properly. We have just been kidding ourselves since 2001. The HPC is nothing to fear for most people, we will return to some sort of norm where intelligent people are rewarded for their hardwork instead of people being rewarded for fortunate timing. Australia, America and parts of the Eurozone will/are acknowledging reality now and this will be the new found wisdom in Britain too. Same old stuff , different day , I watched the last one day by day and the only difference this time is the sheer size of the bubble had a lot more people going for a while but in the end it was just a speculative bubble.

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Given the choice between HPC and having a recession – wouldn’t Brown be better of just devaluing the pound (not too much)

If the pound drops then inflation rises (which they will ignore) but also it stops people spending on imports and will help UK deficit, business, manufacturing etc. wouldn’t more people be happier with a lower pound?

Can he devalue without lowering IR?

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Can he devalue without lowering IR?

I thought he could do what ever he wanted to – i.e. inflation a problem just take every thing that goes up off the CPI index / houses go down then add them to the CPI

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Brown is stitched up like a kipper. He has no way out. What trick can he now pull? High debt low inflation is a trap, one big trap. What can he dop to encourage growth etc, with debt already sky high?

I can't see a crash for a while yet, but when it comes it will be horrific. The whole debt-based economy is f*cked.

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Browns choice: HPC or Sterling crash.

If he chooses a sterling crash by lowering IR Mr. Inflation unleases his destructive forces throughout the entire economy. Unliklely IMHO as Sir Alan is now Brown's advisior and Alan's policies are always anti-inflationary.

My guess is he will choose a "contained" HPC andcontinue to raise rates and let the house market find its true level, somewhere around 3.5 to 3.75 times earnings. Sterling will fall somewhat, maybe 10%, but dreaded inflation will be avoided and the pensioners will be happy with the better return on their savings.

why has he been printing loads of money for most of the time he was in charge - easy money policies result in inflation.

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Can he devalue without lowering IR?

The BoE could devalue the pound by buying a lot of Dollars, Euros, Yen etc in open market operations, I think (but I could be wrong).

frugalista

Thats a good point actually, because i think the pensioners are the most active part of the electorate.

Not 100% on this but ultimately any politician will do almost anything to stay in power so he may upset the BLT brigade but if they dont vote will he be that bothered?

I didn't realise the bacon, lettuce and tomato faction were such a powerful lobby! ;)

frugalista

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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