rollover Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 (edited) Quote WHAT ABOUT BUY-TO-LET? The buy-to-let bubble has well and truly burst. Daily Mail It is not the main headline just yet, but the good news is slowly seeping through. Edited July 19, 2019 by rollover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, rollover said: It is not the main headline just yet, but the good news is slowly seeping through. But there is still a silver lining . The good news is that there are still some opportunities to make money — typically in areas with low property prices and strong demand for rentals. The Northern Powerhouse cities of Newcastle, Liverpool and Hull have all seen strong growth in buy-to-let lending, according to UK Finance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Houdini Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 26 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: But there is still a silver lining . The good news is that there are still some opportunities to make money — typically in areas with low property prices and strong demand for rentals. The Northern Powerhouse cities of Newcastle, Liverpool and Hull have all seen strong growth in buy-to-let lending, according to UK Finance. Newcastle I can just about see, Liverpool and Hull really (they are seaside ports where the population and work prospects are continually reducing).. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeanutButter Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 DM knows how to push their readers' buttons ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regprentice Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 (edited) Still plenty of people wanting on the BTL gravy train, or doubling down on existing BTL investments. This thread on MSE today...how do I buy a third BTL without telling my husband while I'm up to my eyes in credit card debt. I've heard a couple of 'savvy' btl investors at work trying to offload their portfolios... But I think the general mood among sheep investors is that BTL is still the game to be in. Edited July 19, 2019 by regprentice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollover Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, regprentice said: Still plenty of people wanting on the BTL gravy train, or doubling down on existing BTL investments. This thread on MSE today...how do I buy a third BTL without telling my husband while I'm up to my eyes in credit card debt. I've heard a couple of 'savvy' btl investors at work trying to offload their portfolios... But I think the general mood among sheep investors is that BTL is still the game to be in. Tell me more, tell me more Was it love at first sight? Tell me more, tell me more How much dough did he spend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, regprentice said: Still plenty of people wanting on the BTL gravy train, or doubling down on existing BTL investments. This thread on MSE today...how do I buy a third BTL without telling my husband while I'm up to my eyes in credit card debt. I've heard a couple of 'savvy' btl investors at work trying to offload their portfolios... But I think the general mood among sheep investors is that BTL is still the game to be in. This sort of nonsense would end if they brought back debtors prisons instead of bailing the idiots out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 The bad landlords spoil it for the rest.......debt interest rates flat on the floor and rents have been rising well above inflation......more people being squeezed into smaller space to collect more rent from low wage earners...some awful living conditions, sub letting and poor or no maintenance to property.....many would expect to be paid to live there or would prefer to sleep on the street.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 BTL lending has been stable last few years, no sign of a collapse Source: https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/mlar-statistics-june-2019-detailed-long-run.xlsx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotblack42 Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, slawek said: BTL lending has been stable last few years, no sign of a collapse Source: https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/mlar-statistics-june-2019-detailed-long-run.xlsx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burbujista Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 23 minutes ago, slawek said: BTL lending has been stable last few years, no sign of a collapse Source: https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/mlar-statistics-june-2019-detailed-long-run.xlsx They are pro cyclical and they seem to be the marginal buyer during booms... this DOES mean that it will go crashing down when they start seeing house price declines, but now in most of the South their cash flow will be negative... it’s going to be EPIC! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckinlimbo Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Something's definetly afoot, I've seen a couple of empty plots near me in South London come up for sale. Something I haven't seen in the many years that I have been looking in my area. Let's see what the government is gonna throw at it this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 25 minutes ago, slawek said: BTL lending has been stable last few years, no sign of a collapse Source: https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/mlar-statistics-june-2019-detailed-long-run.xlsx That chart is not telling the whole story......it is not stable compared to HPI....it is telling you less debt being taken on. What percentage of BTL meaning bought outright with cash rented properties are there in the market? Is it more landlords quiting the letting market and a few established buying more stock? ....are there more trying to reduce their debt on btls because holding the debt is now not so profitable? ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazypabs Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 26 minutes ago, hotblack42 said: Can't have SLAUGHTER without LAUGHTER!!! :-D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, winkie said: That chart is not telling the whole story......it is not stable compared to HPI....it is telling you less debt being taken on. What percentage of BTL meaning bought outright with cash rented properties are there in the market? Is it more landlords quiting the letting market and a few established buying more stock? ....are there more trying to reduce their debt on btls because holding the debt is now not so profitable? ? My guess is that leveraged BTLs should be first to jump the ship due to tax changes and a higher risk they have taken. If they don't panic then cash buyers are likely not doing this either. It doesn't seem that leverages BTLs are leaving the market yet, the outstanding loans are still growing (faster than HPI) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurlerontheditch Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 2 hours ago, regprentice said: Still plenty of people wanting on the BTL gravy train, or doubling down on existing BTL investments. This thread on MSE today...how do I buy a third BTL without telling my husband while I'm up to my eyes in credit card debt. I've heard a couple of 'savvy' btl investors at work trying to offload their portfolios... But I think the general mood among sheep investors is that BTL is still the game to be in. that MSE thread is crazy!! 38k in credit card debt on 0% teaser rates and no job but wants another BTL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 45 minutes ago, slawek said: My guess is that leveraged BTLs should be first to jump the ship due to tax changes and a higher risk they have taken. If they don't panic then cash buyers are likely not doing this either. It doesn't seem that leverages BTLs are leaving the market yet, the outstanding loans are still growing (faster than HPI) With banks still providing 5 year fixed rate BTL mortgages at 2.2% its hard to see a crash happening until at least 2024. These mortgages will enable BTLers to put off the day of reckoning and unless intending to switch the mortgage into another BTL disincentives sales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kirk Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 2 hours ago, winkie said: The bad landlords spoil it for the rest.......debt interest rates flat on the floor and rents have been rising well above inflation......more people being squeezed into smaller space to collect more rent from low wage earners...some awful living conditions, sub letting and poor or no maintenance to property.....many would expect to be paid to live there or would prefer to sleep on the street.? I think that'll be the BoE rather than bad landlords. They are debt pushers supplying the debt junkies. Watch them slash rates to zero and blame Brexit if prices continue to slide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 2 hours ago, slawek said: BTL lending has been stable last few years, no sign of a collapse Source: https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/mlar-statistics-june-2019-detailed-long-run.xlsx You sure thats not remortgages? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kirk Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 3 hours ago, regprentice said: Still plenty of people wanting on the BTL gravy train, or doubling down on existing BTL investments. This thread on MSE today...how do I buy a third BTL without telling my husband while I'm up to my eyes in credit card debt. Reading the comments, she is obsessed like a gambling addict. What happens if there is a recession and she can't rent them out? It's insane that we are producing these kinds of people in the UK. The whole thing is insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regprentice Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 (edited) 26 minutes ago, spyguy said: You sure thats not remortgages? Looking at the most stats linked the graph looks right. Between £62 and £73Bn on gross new mortgage business written each quarter last year with roughly 13-14% of that for BTL gives roughly £8.7-9bn of BTL lending each quarter. It's easier to see on the summary table 1a https://www.fca.org.uk/data/mortgage-lending-statistics Interesting that on this table the amount taken in mortgages is flat, yet the volumes in the DM article the number of mortgages issues has fallen around 60% (iirc it was 170k to 70k) in a rising market suggests fewer BTL mortgages being issued for larger and larger amounts. Edit. Spy guy is right those figures include mortgages (at very roughly 40% of all mortgages) but there doesn't appear to be a table which identifies mortgages as a proportion of btl. I'm struggling to read the spreadsheets on a mobile. Edited July 19, 2019 by regprentice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said: Reading the comments, she is obsessed like a gambling addict. What happens if there is a recession and she can't rent them out? It's insane that we are producing these kinds of people in the UK. The whole thing is insane. "Both our properties are let and the rents service the credit cards and the mortgage, its just that the cards are in my name therefore the debt shows as belonging to me" ??? hubby has a brain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kirk Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 (edited) 59 minutes ago, spyguy said: You sure thats not remortgages? Looks correct. There doesn't appear to be any slowing in BTL or other residential mortgage lending yet. Total outstanding appears to be an upward linear trend. Balances of residential loans to individuals: All (Regulated and Non-regulated) 2007 Q1 2019 Q1 BTL £75bn £212bn ALL £881bn £1.35tr Edited July 19, 2019 by Captain Kirk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slawek Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 40 minutes ago, spyguy said: You sure thats not remortgages? Data are reported under headers "Advances/Home purchase/Buy to let". Remortgages are reported separately. I don't see then how they could be interpreted to include BTL remortgages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kirk Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 (edited) Out of interest, according to those figures, total mortgage debt is expanding at £40bn a year, which is equivalent to 200,000 new builds a year assuming £200K per unit. BTL debt is expanding at £11.4bn a year. Edited July 19, 2019 by Captain Kirk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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