Global population of eight billion and growing: we can’t go on like this

[PeanutButter]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/07/africa-birth-control-global-population-crisis

President Magufuli pulled off an intriguing feat last year when, in a single speech, he managed to affront just about every liberal cause on the planet. The Tanzanian leader told a public rally not to listen to advice from foreigners on contraception because it had “sinister motives”. For good measure, he accused women who use birth control of being “lazy” – it was their duty to have large numbers of children.

By any standards, these were outrageous remarks – and worrying ones, for they indicate there has been a deep and potentially catastrophic failure by the west in promoting a measure on which the future health of our planet depends: limiting numbers of our species. Until this basic task is achieved, virtually every measure we take to tackle global heating will be negated by the energy demands of the extra billions we have added to global populations, say campaigners.

Hence the demonstrations – to be staged by groups such as Britain’s Population Matters and others – in capitals around the world on Thursday when the planet marks World Population Day. This will be the 30th anniversary of the annual event set up by the United Nations in 1989 – when there were a mere 5 billion people on Earth – to focus attention on the urgency of our impending population crisis.

Today there are about 7.7 billion men, women on children on Earth, a staggering figure given that a century ago, there were only 1.9 billion. And although populations have stabilised in many regions, in particular Europe and North America, figures released by the UN this month show global numbers are now growing at the alarming rate of about 100 million every 14 months. By 2050, the Earth’s population will have hit 9.7 billion and it will continue to rise, reaching a figure of about 10.9 billion by 2100.

These are the kind of population numbers we associate with simple organisms swimming in a pond, not those of a big-brained omnivore that requires 3,000 calories a day to survive. If there are 10 billion of us, every forest, valley and piece of land will have to be turned to agriculture to feed us. “Our planet cannot withstand such numbers,” says the palaeontologist Peter Ward in his book The End of Evolution.

Crucially, the vast majority of the extra 3 billion human beings that could be added to Earth’s population will be born in Africa. Today there are about 1.2 billion Africans. By 2100, there will be more than 4 billion. Our growing population crisis therefore needs to be tackled there as a priority: by boosting women’s rights, by making contraception easily available and by improving education for all. The remarks of President Magufuli suggest that this is going to be a very hard task. Nor have the actions of Donald Trump’s White House helped. By slashing funds to international birth control programmes, the US is now undermining hopes of limiting Africa’s population growth.

We should note that many countries in Africa are likely to become grimly inhospitable when global heating takes its grip on Earth. Millions may be driven from their homes as heatwaves, famines and droughts sweep their lands.

Yet very little of the burning of fossil fuels that has triggered this climate crisis occurred in Africa. It took place in the west, whose industrial emissions are a key cause of global heating. It is a fact we should remember when millions of climate refugees from scorched and overpopulated nations seek salvation on our shores.

[Orsino]

Demographics - the issue that impacts everything, and that hardly anyone seems to know or care about. The article is pretty accurate. In fact population hasn't just stabilised in many developed countries but is already below replacement levels. 

Fertility rates have been falling in Africa too but that decline has seemed to have stalled in recent years. I'm not sure of the reasons but let's hope the president of Tanzania has schools and jobs for all the millions of citizens he's so keen on. Otherwise his country is in for a rough ride.

 

[chronyx]

Stop sending aid to Africa then.  

[Orsino]

33 minutes ago, chronyx said:

Stop sending aid to Africa then.  

To what ends? Well targeted aid reduces deaths (especially of children) improves education (especially of women) and reduces the birth rate, which is good for the planet. It is a proven strategy in all continents. There is self interest in giving aid and that doesn't have to be cynical either.

[Captain Kirk]

1 hour ago, chronyx said:

Stop sending aid to Africa then.  

Except condoms.

[chronyx]

1 hour ago, Orsino said:

 It is a proven strategy in all continents. 

Why has African population doubled?

[PeanutButter]

Trouble with aid is that most of it seems to be administered by orgs with ulterior motives - ie the Catholic Church, the US govt. Helping people shouldn't come with religious strings attached. 

TBH I'm amazed the Guardian is even publishing these types of articles as it goes against their prevailing ideology somewhat. But every little helps. 

 

[PeanutButter]

8 minutes ago, chronyx said:

Why has African population doubled?

https://qz.com/africa/1099546/population-growth-africans-will-be-a-third-of-all-people-on-earth-by-2100/

Quote

 

The population of Africa is increasing because births outnumber deaths four to one. While African mortality is the highest in the world, it has decreased in recent decades, following a pattern already observed on other continents.

Fertility has also declined. African women have 4.5 children on average – as opposed to 6.5 forty years ago and 5.5 twenty years ago. Here too, the same trend has been established on other continents. Women in Asia have just 2.1 children on average, in Latin America 2.0 children, in North America 1.9 and in Europe 1.6.

This combination of declining mortality and relatively high fertility is the driver of rapid population growth in Africa. Even if fertility would continue to decline, as assumed by the United Nations medium scenario, it will not bring down the growth rate in the near future, let alone halt population growth. This is because of “demographic inertia”.

Even if African fertility were to fall right now to the level in Europe and China (1.6 children per woman) – a highly unlikely scenario – the population would continue to increase for several decades, reaching 1.6 billion in 2050. This is because Africa has a very high proportion of young adults of reproductive age (15-49). Even if each one had very few children, the number of births would remain high.

The population projections published by the United Nations in 1981 predicted that the world population would reach 10.5 billion in 2100 under the medium scenario. The latest projections published in June 2017 give a figure of 11.2 billion—0.7 billion higher.

 

Quote

Africa’s population will inevitably double by 2050 as a consequence of unstoppable demographic inertia. Depending on its speed of economic development in coming years, the improvement in women’s education and the implementation of family planning policies, the population of Africa in 2100 will be three, four, five or six times larger than it is today.

I'd posit it's increased so rapidly because of better logistics (road transport and communications) allowing medicines and medical practitioners and NGOs to vaccinate and save far more children. Those same logistics have allowed countries that used to be net food exporters to become importers (ie Nigeria). Malaria is being beaten. HIV Aids is being beaten. Better access to clean water and wells. Cheap mobile phones so people can access life saving information instantly. Seemingly unlimited natural resources to extract...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[chronyx]

Good old Graun

[Orsino]

4 hours ago, chronyx said:

Why has African population doubled?

Generally speaking people have lots of kids if they expect several of their children to die in infancy. If you improve life expectancy,  people have fewer children. It's called a demographic transition. However, the transition usually involves traditional high birth rates AND better life expectancy,  leading to a rapid increase in population. Again, most countries have already been through the transition so it's a well studied path.

[chronyx]

12 minutes ago, Orsino said:

If you improve life expectancy,  people have fewer children. 

Please can I have a citation on that as I think this is a case of correlation does not equal causation. 

I think (For example) that high house prices needing 2 full time workers to survive without resorting to the state is why people have fewer children. Among many such thoughts.  Again, just my opinion.

[PeanutButter]

In Somalia, the climate emergency is already here. The world cannot ignore it

Quote

The climate emergency is wreaking havoc across the world, and it is the poorest countries that bear the brunt of the crisis. In Somalia, where I am acting country director for the aid agency Islamic Relief, the population is currently experiencing a drought that could threaten the lives or livelihoods of more than two million people by the end of the summer, according to the UN.

The climate has been wreaking havoc on Somalia’s seasons. Ordinarily there are four: the main rainy season between April and June (gu), the second rainy season between October and December (deyr), and the dry seasons that follow each of them. Two-thirds of the country’s population live in rural areas and are completely dependent on the rains for their crops and livestock. Last year, these people were set back when the deyr season produced less rain than usual. And again this year the gu rains almost failed, eventually arriving in tiny pockets of the country too little, too late. This has led to widespread crop failure, and a decline in livestock production, rapidly pushing communities in the worst-affected areas into food insecurity.

In recent years, the frequency and duration of these dry spells has increased. As it does so, the capacity of people to resist these shocks decreases. Every drought depletes their assets: their animals will die, their crops will fail, they will have nothing to sell and next season they won’t have money to buy seeds to plant again. In desperation, pastoralists sell their animals at a giveaway price, leaving them even more vulnerable. Doing so significantly reduces their number of cattle to below the minimum threshold required to continue raising livestock. At this point they begin to flee and become displaced, often in informal camps near urban settlements.

I recently saw how extreme weather can throw the delicate lives of the most vulnerable off-kilter. Our staff met Geelo Ahmed Osman, a mother of five from Ainabo district, Somaliland, in an informal camp for internally displaced people (IDPs), where she now lives. She has been entrusted with a great deal of responsibility. Four of her five children are disabled with conditions so severe they cannot move without assistance – and her fifth is completely emaciated with malnourishment. Because her husband had a stroke last year, she is now the breadwinner for the entire household.

Two years ago, another drought hit Osman and her family hard. Her household, who were pastoralists, lost all their animals. In the two years since, they have been entirely reliant on handouts from their relatives, and when their relatives could no longer offer to support them, they moved to the outskirts of Ainabo district and joined an informal IDP settlement in the hope that they will get assistance from aid organisations.

The current drought has led to more and more people like Geelo Ahmed Osman, displaced from their homes and reliant on support from the international community. About half of the country’s population is in need of emergency assistance. If they don’t receive this, we are very likely to see a full-scale famine before the end of the year. Lack of water does not just have nutritional implications: it spreads disease. If people don’t have water to wash at critical times, they can’t stem the spread of disease, which becomes inevitable in crowded IDP camps. Things such as diarrhoea, if untreated, can be fatal to children.

Aid agencies need more funding, and not just for immediate assistance. With the climate crisis increasing these kinds of events in frequency and intensity, we could be in this exact same situation next year, the year after, and on and on. So while the first phase of intervention should be emergency response, we then need to build resilience so people are better prepared for the future and not reliant on handouts from the international community.

The sad thing is that around the world emergencies are on the increase: from the ongoing wars in Syria and Yemen to devastating natural disasters such as Cyclone Idai in south-east Africa. The climate crisis will only bring more disaster. But at the moment, the attention, funding and support from the international community is not there. It is crucial that, in our turbulent and increasingly unstable world, Somalia is not left behind.

Must be wonderful to be able to comfortably deny climate chaos. 

[chronyx]

47 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

In Somalia, the climate emergency is already here. The world cannot ignore it

Must be wonderful to be able to comfortably deny climate chaos. 

Must be wonderful to believe the fairy tales about it being caused by humans rather than it being a natural cycle that is out of our control.

[Riedquat]

15 hours ago, chronyx said:

Please can I have a citation on that as I think this is a case of correlation does not equal causation. 

I think (For example) that high house prices needing 2 full time workers to survive without resorting to the state is why people have fewer children. Among many such thoughts.  Again, just my opinion.

The move to fewer children in the UK was well established by the time house prices were reasonable, and before they shot up again. It was a bit higher than now in, say, the 60s through to the 80s but far less than in Victorian times, when the infant mortality rate was still high.

[Captain Kirk]

56 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

In Somalia, the climate emergency is already here. The world cannot ignore it

Must be wonderful to be able to comfortably deny climate chaos. 

There is no cure for climate chaos. No point beating yourself up over it.

[chronyx]

1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

The move to fewer children in the UK was well established by the time house prices were reasonable, and before they shot up again. It was a bit higher than now in, say, the 60s through to the 80s but far less than in Victorian times, when the infant mortality rate was still high.

OK, fair point. I wonder if r/K selection is a factor

[PeanutButter]

1 hour ago, Captain Kirk said:

There is no cure for climate chaos. No point beating yourself up over it.

Good to see you acknowledging the issue. Baby steps. 

[PeanutButter]

1 hour ago, chronyx said:

Must be wonderful to believe the fairy tales about it being caused by humans rather than it being a natural cycle that is out of our control.

Mindless passivity is the hallmark of truly outstanding individuals, donchaknow. Eat the plastic tray microwave food, watch the Love Island, buy the consumer products, take on the debt, do as you're told, question nothing. All is well. Nothing will ever change. Anyone who says otherwise is lying.  It's a natural cycle.  

[chronyx]

2 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Mindless passivity is the hallmark of truly outstanding individuals, donchaknow. Eat the plastic tray microwave food, watch the Love Island, buy the consumer products, take on the debt, do as you're told, question nothing. All is well. Nothing will ever change. Anyone who says otherwise is lying.  It's a natural cycle.  

What does your list of things i don't do have to do with anything? Oh well if we're down to toddler level, this is you:

OH YES DADDY GOV TELL ME MORE LIES! MMMMMM IT FEELS SO GOOD! HIGH HOUSE PRICES GOOD! CO2 BAD! DEBT IS WEALTH! 

 

[Captain Kirk]

1 hour ago, PeanutButter said:

Mindless passivity is the hallmark of truly outstanding individuals, donchaknow. Eat the plastic tray microwave food, watch the Love Island, buy the consumer products, take on the debt, do as you're told, question nothing. All is well. Nothing will ever change. Anyone who says otherwise is lying.  It's a natural cycle.  

Most free thinkers I know find those things abhorrent. Also they've got nothing to do with the climate.

[Orsino]

On 08/07/2019 at 15:30, chronyx said:

What does your list of things i don't do have to do with anything? Oh well if we're down to toddler level, this is you:

OH YES DADDY GOV TELL ME MORE LIES! MMMMMM IT FEELS SO GOOD! HIGH HOUSE PRICES GOOD! CO2 BAD! DEBT IS WEALTH! 

 

There's a big difference between your local estate agent, your national politicians and the entire global weight of scientific knowledge. Anyone with even the most basic knowledge of earth sciences appreciates we are in an unprecedented situation. We have ice cores in Antarctica providing 800,000 years of atmospheric data and the planet has not experienced a comparable change in climate during that time. In all fairness to yourself and the scientific method, if you disagree with the almost universally held view (in scientific circles) that human activity is affecting global climate - as supported by extensive observation, experimentation and modelling - then you are welcome to put forward an alternative view, backed by suitable evidence, for peer review.

As for a citation regarding demographics, I would recommend How Population Change will Transform our World, by Professor Sarah Harper of Oxford University. Or here's a 10-minute presentation of some of the key points:

 

[chronyx]

54 minutes ago, Orsino said:

almost universally held view (in scientific circles) that human activity is affecting global climate

Wrong.  

www.forbes.com/sites/alexepstein/2015/01/06/97-of-climate-scientists-agree-is-100-wrong/amp/

I could post science backed YouTube vids describing how CC is caused by the Sun. I will if you like. But generally I don't bother as no-one wants to change their mind. I grew up with and believed the CO2 hoax until I, as the droids so often suggest, educated myself.

[Riedquat]

Must be comfortable, finding reasons to bury your head in the sand.

Admittedly the vision of the future being parroted by the campaigners holds even less appeal than what they want to prevent (living in a house built to their vision, in a town built to their vision, travelling around on transport built to their vision, in the wider surroundings built to their vision - if I woke one morning and found that's what the world looked like I'd assume I'd died and gone to hell, although that's true enough of every vision of the future that gets trotted out, even where climate isn't at all part of it - the present is close enough to it that the stench wafts over). It's easier to find reasons to say one side is wrong than to face the reality that there's zero appeal in either.

[chronyx]

1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

Must be comfortable, finding reasons to bury your head in the sand.

 

Yes, as a multidimensional being I can comfortably say I don't believe the CO2 fraud, as if it was even real (It's not), I wouldn't be affected by it.  

[Orsino]

So it's a coordinated global conspiracy involving countless scientists from different fields, universities and countries?