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The real reasons for high house prices


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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

No.

Bank's books are rapidily shrinking as OO  mortgages are paid off.

MMR and Basel3  are driving massive structural shift occurring in UK property lending. Yet, despite the evidence, the properdee crown still bang on.

There was a massive, quiet shuift as soon as TFS and the like ended.

Look at EAs - falling to bits due to lack of sales.

Look at banks - doign stupid Ads to try and shift their mortgage.

Look at London Down ~20-30% + record low trasnaction. Yet none seems to have clicked.

Look atthe no5rthern places I follow. Prices have been flat for 15 years now.

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1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

a) 10% includes Scotland, which certainly isn't overcrowded.

b) Even 10% is a sign of being overcrowded and overdeveloped, it's a terribly high number for an overall level of development. Also compare that number with what it would've been just within living memory - a truly scary rate of change.

It's beyond me how anyone who's even travelled around the country more than a tiny bit could not find it overcrowded; you've got to be really oversimplifying to treat that as "well I can see lots of bits that aren't built on" when you're rarely more than 20 miles from somewhere large.

Fair enough about the "small" bit though, as far as islands go it's a fairly large one.

I was oversimplifying it and hopelessly overestimating how much of our land we have used its closer to 2% -

Yes. According to the most detailed analysis ever conducted, almost 98% of England is, in their word, natural.

Elsewhere in the UK, the figure rises to more than 99%. It is clear that only a small fraction of Britain has been concreted over.*

Certain areas are overcrowded but there is still plenty of land to go round, its how we chose to use it.

*https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18623096

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2 hours ago, Riedquat said:

"As they've done for centuries" therefore suggests that they're not why house prices have gone really bonkers this century.

? That doesn't follow? The rich and powerful do own land and property...are you saying they don't? And they will work to inflate prices if they can..Wars  and low demand , adequate supply kept prices low in the past. In recent decades conditions of scarcity and competitive bidding for housing together with easy credit and many other techniques to distort the market have worked successfully for them.

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4 minutes ago, nightowl said:

Buying already overpriced assets that return no yield and at risk of devaluation could only be explained by is safer than in a bank account. 

Too much money seems to be tied up in totally unproductive activity to me and redistrubuting it via a productive economy is more sustainable than taxation. 

Yes, but also leading to the never ending demand for more & more insane growth ...... Why can't an economy be allowed to contract ..... (he asked knowingly)

 

Had to look up TFS ....again

All / both anti price discovery systems, designed for 'market' manipulation ...... ?

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=qe+vs+tfs

 

 

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9 hours ago, Wayward said:

Yes but why does he have to look so silly when presenting one of the most important messages of our times...

Maybe he was trying to further illustrate the silliness (to put it very mildly) that is the UK housing market and the general population's attitude towards it.

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4 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

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I keep telling people that im from the future - Scabby coast.

The structural shift in reduction of oaps migrating and collapse of under 50s earning power is eyebrow raising.

Most over 65s putting their houses up for sale are likely to leave in a box than a remival van.

Prices are everywhere, transactions are flatlining.

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All the answers above, particularly relating to debt and fiat money. Plus an existential one, the elites fear they lose the consent to govern. Already diisatisfaction with elites throughput western world, falling incomes and standards of living. They fear a housing crash would be the final straw. It is the financial vehicle most middle class money held in, along with hopes and dreams. Not the best political climate in which to upset people. 

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On 29/06/2019 at 06:20, winkie said:

Because people can keep borrowing more against it, quality security for debt.....people feel richer holding it so spend more into the economy, it can make more money annually than working doing a full time job......an income today, a future pension, future living/care provision.....an inheritance......money for doing nothing......Oh! and you can also live in it.

......but nothing always stays the same always.?

Sounds like all the reasons to buy one then, whats stopping you

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On 29/06/2019 at 08:16, spyguy said:

EU is in a terrible position, as academic economists continue their failed strategy, whilst the EU and nations governments just do no t address the fundamental problems - EURO does not work, most Med countries need massive wage adjustments down.

I thought wages in Spain were very low especially relative to cost of living. Along with the spanish islands too. Greek, Cyprus wages etc. Not so in Germany, Ireland france etc

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On 29/06/2019 at 13:46, Captain Kirk said:

What does this graph suggest? Land or number of homes has little to do with prices?

image.png.4794751c7ee34430fa417eafea5c6ab0.png

Or homes are getting smaller?

It suggests that Brits are living in one person households more due to divorce and small families and foriegners are living 6 to a house like they do with all the grand parents etc

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44 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Sounds like all the reasons to buy one then, whats stopping you

.......buying one is more than enough, that is not to say I wouldn't wish homes would fall in value, have always said they should never have got to where they are.....many artificial props over time put into place to keep them rising, keeping them high....long overdue for a downward adjustment.?

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56 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

I thought wages in Spain were very low especially relative to cost of living. Along with the spanish islands too. Greek, Cyprus wages etc. Not so in Germany, Ireland france etc

It depends.

People on FT contracts tend be well paid esp public sector.

Outside of FT contract, young and and its 1000€ jobs.

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

.......buying one is more than enough, that is not to say I wouldn't wish homes would fall in value, have always said they should never have got to where they are.....many artificial props over time put into place to keep them rising, keeping them high....long overdue for a downward adjustment.?

put it this way.... If you needed a house to keep your uk roots/residency and you had the cash, would you buy one despite the chance of a correction down

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1 hour ago, bear.getting.old said:

put it this way.... If you needed a house to keep your uk roots/residency and you had the cash, would you buy one despite the chance of a correction down

What would you do?.......house prices have gone down, they go up and down whilst down paying the debt.....for most people it takes hard work over many years to buy a house......for most ftbers having enough deposit to buy today is the biggest hurdle......if someone is fortunate enough to have saved and or given a deposit to buy and they earn enough to borrow and employment is stable and they need a place to live, buying the right place can be a good thing to do......not all places will be the right place, not everyone should buy a place......what the price will be next year or in five years time is a minor consideration for buying....?

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On ‎29‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 13:02, dougless said:

I was oversimplifying it and hopelessly overestimating how much of our land we have used its closer to 2% -

Yes. According to the most detailed analysis ever conducted, almost 98% of England is, in their word, natural.

Elsewhere in the UK, the figure rises to more than 99%. It is clear that only a small fraction of Britain has been concreted over.*

Certain areas are overcrowded but there is still plenty of land to go round, its how we chose to use it.

*https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18623096

This is at least the third time this topic has come up on this forum.

The BBC analysis above is utter carp.  98% of England is most definitely not "natural".

Go to this site and download the pdf.  Go to page 5 for the detailed summary of land use:

https://figshare.com/articles/A_Land_Cover_Atlas_of_the_United_Kingdom_Document_/5266495

It's all used for something, even if that is natural habitats.  What arable land or woodland do you want to concrete over next?

Do you recall the protests and kerfuffle when they built a short section of road, the A34 Newbury Bypass?

The islands and highlands of Scotland suffer from depopulation.  As do many northern towns to this day.  There are thousands of  empty boarded up houses and shops in these areas.  It's not a question of space.

Move the jobs to where the people are, and stop destroying what is left of our natural environment.

 

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On 29/06/2019 at 13:02, dougless said:

I was oversimplifying it and hopelessly overestimating how much of our land we have used its closer to 2% -

Yes. According to the most detailed analysis ever conducted, almost 98% of England is, in their word, natural.

Elsewhere in the UK, the figure rises to more than 99%. It is clear that only a small fraction of Britain has been concreted over.*

Certain areas are overcrowded but there is still plenty of land to go round, its how we chose to use it.

*https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18623096

As well as kzb's points (which really show an agenda, and how idiotic the choice of the word "natural" is - urban and suburban areas are 100% developed even if they're not concrete and tarmac every inch - a built-up area that's 50% built up would be considered pretty densely developed) it sounds like you're merely considering "we can physically fit everyone in." This is an issue that becomes undesirable long before it becomes physically impossible, and that's without taking into consideration questions like food and water supplies.

It's beyond me how anyone could possibly have any knowledge of the UK, certainly England, and not be aware of the impact of population density, even in almost entirely rural areas. What's the average distance from something indicating a lot of people - city, large town, motorway, dual carriageway, busy railway etc.? I suppose some people are just so used to that being the norm that it's just normal to them. Such people should be pitied.

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On 28/06/2019 at 21:20, jiltedjen said:

fiat also means we can fund hospitals etc, and allows a smoother society, and allows us to be lazy and unproductive. and allows a few to be one super rich while the average joe still gets all the services he expects regardless or not if it’s actually paid for. 

Easy now is difficult later.

Fiat allows States to create the illusion of prosperity in the short term, while assuring that the long term will be miserable.

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