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Trump Invective

Halifax May 2019

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The index recently identified as being "most bonkers" is back on Friday 7th June for another attempt to rescue its shattered "reputation".

The experts in the know on the inside predict -0.2%

 

Edited by Trump Invective

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Not a credible index month on month it's too volatile. Anything that rules out cash buyers and so much of the mortgage market should be sent straight to the shredder.

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41 minutes ago, Sausage said:

Plus 0.5

Per month. Schucks.

Edited by Si1

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But what credibility is there for any index that reports an average house price of £230,400 in December, £223,700 in January, then £236,700 in February?

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Does anyone know exactly what metrics this index is based on?  Aware it is mortgages, but does it include remortgages or just new purchases?  I'm struggling to find their actual lending ratios, i.e. I'd like to see a breakdown of BTL purchases/BTL remortgages/Owner Occupier Purchase/remortgage.

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1 hour ago, TopBanana101 said:

Does anyone know exactly what metrics this index is based on?  Aware it is mortgages, but does it include remortgages or just new purchases?  I'm struggling to find their actual lending ratios, i.e. I'd like to see a breakdown of BTL purchases/BTL remortgages/Owner Occupier Purchase/remortgage.

Same!

I don't think they're outright lying, but I would be very interested in knowing what the mix of properties is, and how the weights between e.g north / south / London have changed over time.

For example, if a year ago, they were mainly lending up north, but have started lending more in the south, presumably the average would go up just from this, unless it's corrected for.

 

 

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1 hour ago, TopBanana101 said:

Does anyone know exactly what metrics this index is based on?  Aware it is mortgages, but does it include remortgages or just new purchases?  I'm struggling to find their actual lending ratios, i.e. I'd like to see a breakdown of BTL purchases/BTL remortgages/Owner Occupier Purchase/remortgage. 

from what I understand it is from mortgages for new properties on their book. Therefor is a skewed by where they lend, excludes cash buyers which make up a huge proportion of the market and indeed i think Halifax (although Britain's biggest mortgage lender) still lend a minority of mortgages. The only accurate index is the land registry although it has a bit of a lag. All others are just conjecture.

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46 minutes ago, Henrik said:

Same!

I don't think they're outright lying, but I would be very interested in knowing what the mix of properties is, and how the weights between e.g north / south / London have changed over time.

For example, if a year ago, they were mainly lending up north, but have started lending more in the south, presumably the average would go up just from this, unless it's corrected for.

 

 

I'd really like to see the algorithm.  But a wise man told me as an apprentice to never put down anything maliciousness which can equally be explained by incompetence.  It's quite dangerous comparing averages when you don't know what they are averages of!

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4 minutes ago, TopBanana101 said:

I'd really like to see the algorithm.  But a wise man told me as an apprentice to never put down anything maliciousness which can equally be explained by incompetence.  It's quite dangerous comparing averages when you don't know what they are averages of!

HANLON’S RAZOR:
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

 

 

Incidentally, Hanlon was a computer programmer....

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8 minutes ago, TopBanana101 said:

I'd really like to see the algorithm.  But a wise man told me as an apprentice to never put down anything maliciousness which can equally be explained by incompetence.  It's quite dangerous comparing averages when you don't know what they are averages of!

Absolutely - and I wish more people on this website took that to heart!

So many conspiracy theories - so little recognition that the elite are carried along on the tide like the rest of us, with the results of their actions far more down to error and luck than design.

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50 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Absolutely - and I wish more people on this website took that to heart!

So many conspiracy theories - so little recognition that the elite are carried along on the tide like the rest of us, with the results of their actions far more down to error and luck than design.

 

Crazy talk, are you sure you're not a VI Troll? ;)

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2 minutes ago, Henrik said:

Crazy talk, are you sure you're not a VI Troll? ;)

Lol!

Over the years I've been accused on this board of being a property professional, a BBC journalist and a teacher - mainly because whenever I stick up for anyone that the "groupthink" doesn't like they immediately jump to thinking I must be one of them.

I guess on that basis I will shortly be accused of being part of the "elite" :D

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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