Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
TheCountOfNowhere

Woodford fund suspended

Recommended Posts

It's all kicking off... 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48506032

 

Iirc, there is some linke to purple bricks? 

 

Britain's own Warren buffet. 

The best bit is Kent Council triggered the shutdown after asking for.... 250 MILLION... If our money back. 

This story is worth watching... 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The money will be kent councils reserve. Sensible idea in principal for a council to have a reserve. However, having so much in a fund with equities like this isnt. I dont know for sure, but guessing that a decade of miserly interest rates from holding cash, that doesnt even match inflation, has been a motivation behind this.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure how big a story this actually is - it's just one fund manager who used to produce good returns later producing bad ones.

Either he used to have skill, and has lost his touch.  Or he used to just get lucky and now his luck has turned.

Either way, I'm not sure what the big deal is for anyone unless they're invested in his fund?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Either way, I'm not sure what the big deal is for anyone unless they're invested in his fund?

The people of Kent are invested in it by the tune of £250m.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

I'm not sure how big a story this actually is - it's just one fund manager who used to produce good returns later producing bad ones.

Not unreasonable to assume there are other fund managers following this 'star' and behind the scenes other funds suffering a cash exodus.  It's whether this is a single spark or the start of something much bigger.

Given the push for gold, given the cluster**** of Brexit and the impact on property funds with so many leading name CVAs, I'd like to think people want a safe haven to buy some distressed assets.  If there is too much cash exiting the system, that will trigger a sterling crisis and up go interest rates.

I can also be completely and utterly wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's actually got an incredible track record. The last time he was 'wrong' was the build up too the financial crisis.

The time he was 'wrong' before that was the dotcom bubble when he avoided it all so looked crap while everyone went up and then back down. 

However,  My money is in the fund he used to manage with Invesco Perpetual. Running your own firm and desk of analysts with a different strategy is something else. 

Don't suppose he gives a f*** though. 59 And a multi millionaire. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Outperforming active fund managers are really great up until the point they're not.  Personally, I go passive and save on the fees.  Woodford 0.75% per annum vs VUKE at 0.09%, VMID at 0.10%, VUSA at 0.07% etc...  My total expenses (funds, ETF's, wrappers like ISA's/SIPP's) are 0.22% per annum.  On £1M of assets that's £5,300 in my pocket vs  just the active fund manager and there would be wrapper costs on top of that.  That's a lot in my world.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I'm not sure how big a story this actually is - it's just one fund manager who used to produce good returns later producing bad ones.

Either he used to have skill, and has lost his touch.  Or he used to just get lucky and now his luck has turned.

Either way, I'm not sure what the big deal is for anyone unless they're invested in his fund?

Its big Imho. Its property related. The market is dead... There is only one way left to get it going again... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, wish I could afford one said:

Outperforming active fund managers are really great up until the point they're not.  Personally, I go passive and save on the fees.  

Over 90% of my pension and other investments are passive, but I must admit to keeping a little bit of actively managed stuff just as diversification.

I used to have a couple of slides on active management in a training course I give regularly as part of my job.  Essentially, a study we did shows 80% of active managers who outperform over I think it was a 3 year period are just lucky, with only 20% outperforming due to skill.  And even the 20% you need to look at whether that is REPEATABLE skill, or did they just have one good idea that worked once, and now that's done are back in the crowd.  Personally I can't see how any active manager can outperform in the long term, although I can see how it can work for short and medium term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I'm not sure how big a story this actually is - it's just one fund manager who used to produce good returns later producing bad ones.

Either he used to have skill, and has lost his touch.  Or he used to just get lucky and now his luck has turned.

Either way, I'm not sure what the big deal is for anyone unless they're invested in his fund?

Echos of the credit crunch?  That started with a few funds falling over.  Seems unlikely in this case, but I don’t know enough about it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BorrowToLeech said:

Echos of the credit crunch?  That started with a few funds falling over.  Seems unlikely in this case, but I don’t know enough about it. 

That started when some property funds said "actually these derivatives are so complex we have no idea what they're actually worth".

Contrast that to people going "Mr Woodford's lost his touch - can I have my money back please?" and Mr Woodford saying "to do that so quickly I'd have to sell all the stuff at knock-down prices - so I'm not going to give your money back yet, to give me time to sell them at better prices".

The credit crunch started when someone suddenly realized a systematic issue that had been overlooked.  Mr Woodford's scenario seems way more usual - and is only making the headlines because he's famous.

As an analogy, restaurants go bust every day in every town and no-one cares.  However, when Jamie's Italian went bust it was headline news because Jamie is famous.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

That started when some property funds said "actually these derivatives are so complex we have no idea what they're actually worth".

Contrast that to people going "Mr Woodford's lost his touch - can I have my money back please?" and Mr Woodford saying "to do that so quickly I'd have to sell all the stuff at knock-down prices - so I'm not going to give your money back yet, to give me time to sell them at better prices".

The credit crunch started when someone suddenly realized a systematic issue that had been overlooked.  Mr Woodford's scenario seems way more usual - and is only making the headlines because he's famous.

As an analogy, restaurants go bust every day in every town and no-one cares.  However, when Jamie's Italian went bust it was headline news because Jamie is famous.

Have you got a list of funds that have done this in say the last ten years? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Have you got a list of funds that have done this in say the last ten years? 

No I don't.

A bit of Googling shows 7 property funds suspended withdrawals in July 2016 due to the referendum result https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-property/number-of-uk-property-funds-suspended-since-brexit-vote-doubles-idUKKCN0ZL13H

Before that most stories relate to the time of the credit crunch.

This does NOT mean that this story is somehow the start of the next credit crunch.

Doing that is the equivalent of saying "last night a tree fell down in our village.  the last tree to fall down was in the 1987 great storm.  therefore we must be in the midst of the biggest storm since 1987" without considering WHY this latest tree fell down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, wish I could afford one said:

I'd doubt it's the people of Kent.  I'd put my money on it being part of the Council's pension fund.

If their pension fund drops in value, that money will have to be replaced. Maybe cuts to public services or an increased social care charge. One thing is for sure the CEO won't be having a wage or pension cut.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

No I don't.

A bit of Googling shows 7 property funds suspended withdrawals in July 2016 due to the referendum result https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-property/number-of-uk-property-funds-suspended-since-brexit-vote-doubles-idUKKCN0ZL13H

Before that most stories relate to the time of the credit crunch.

This does NOT mean that this story is somehow the start of the next credit crunch.

Doing that is the equivalent of saying "last night a tree fell down in our village.  the last tree to fall down was in the 1987 great storm.  therefore we must be in the midst of the biggest storm since 1987" without considering WHY this latest tree fell down.

I never said it was 

 

This is not an insignificant event tho, especially taken in context 

 

The QE/Fls stopped and now its all falling apart. 

 

Did the credit crunch ever end? 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its only 4% of Kent's total pension fund assets - stock market movements could lose that in a few weeks anyway.

So a problem but not a disaster.

At least local government has funds invested for its pension schemes - central government pensions including police, fire, NHS and teachers pension contributions aren't invested and pensions are paid out of current taxation revenues. That is a problem going forward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I never said it was 

...

Did the credit crunch ever end? 

I never said that you said it was, either!  I just wanted to make that point very clear in my post.

And no, the credit crunch hasn't ended, not in my view anyway.  As I've often said, not until interest rates are back to something normal (4-5%pa) can we say it's over.  It's still going.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I never said that you said it was, either!  I just wanted to make that point very clear in my post.

And no, the credit crunch hasn't ended, not in my view anyway.  As I've often said, not until interest rates are back to something normal (4-5%pa) can we say it's over.  It's still going.

👍👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.