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rantnrave

Nationwide May '19

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why the fuss over what I suspect are  these bogus numbers from a vested interest ?

NW (a mutual apparently) deep into BTL isn't going to talk down it's vested interest....that's the route to being insolvent on the assets tied to it's loans.....it will happen regardless but don;t expect any help from them......

Edited by Spindler

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I have been involved with indices data...FTSE MSCI...DAX etc....the penalties for adulterating data would be severe....are there any independent checks of/or are there any penalties regarding what NW produce ?

Is it possible it is actually a total load  of manipulated ********s under the guise of a reliable index ?

 

Edited by Spindler

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18 minutes ago, Spindler said:

why the fuss over these bogus numbers from a vested interest ?

 

Because they drive sentiment with the man (or woman) in the street. Most of us here on the forum are house price obsessives and constantly scan every indicator out there and are aware of the pros and cons of each report - but not everyone's as obsessed as us and there sentiment will be driven by anecdotes and newspaper headlines.

For us to get a crash we need sentiment to change, for something to challenge the mantra of house-prices-only-ever-go-up. However much you may or may not trust the figures, this is a report that gets widely reported and in the past has driven big sentiment affecting headlines. If the Nationwide report shows big rises then paper's like the Daily Express publish headlines about booming house prices - but I also recall these reports driving panic-inducing headlines about tumbling prices.

 

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1 minute ago, lostinessex said:

 

Because they drive sentiment with the man (or woman) in the street. Most of us here on the forum are house price obsessives and constantly scan every indicator out there and are aware of the pros and cons of each report - but not everyone's as obsessed as us and there sentiment will be driven by anecdotes and newspaper headlines.

For us to get a crash we need sentiment to change, for something to challenge the mantra of house-prices-only-ever-go-up. However much you may or may not trust the figures, this is a report that gets widely reported and in the past has driven big sentiment affecting headlines. If the Nationwide report shows big rises then paper's like the Daily Express publish headlines about booming house prices - but I also recall these reports driving panic-inducing headlines about tumbling prices.

 

good points.....so it's totally ok for a lender to talk up its own book with a load of lies to manipulate that sentiment in spite of the realities without fear of being held to account.....so all house price indices are very very suspect....because in the world of securities..bonds equities there are rules but with house prices ..zilch

Falling prices lead to the scary prospect of having to revalue their loan book.....hence they are a biased source of information and not to be trusted....

I agree what you say about the joe in the street but i suspect they have stretched this elastic as far as its going...people are now not believing tradtional sources be they govt or institutions......

When these lemons below are not getting any viewings because the price is obviously too high..sentiment must be changing

image.png.b808b3f67aa678f9c96767ba43ec81e9.png

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Despite a brief up-tick in most figures for the past four months the clearly obvious trend in growth and prices is obviously down, down, down to anyone with half a brain. 

This statement also illustrates how much the despised help to buy schemes is propping up the new build market..

Quote

Those buying with Help to Buy accounted for 14% of first time buyer transactions in England in 2018 and almost 40% of private new build homes were bought under the scheme last year, although the proportion varies across the country,as shown in the chart above right

..and as usual the FTB's are taking progressively more of the burden in buying into the last days of / propping up this bubble.

I hope we don't have to wait until HTB is over (assuming it ever will be) for the real price corrections to begin...

Edited by ftb_fml

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" Despite a brief up-tick in most figures for the past four months the clearly obvious trend in growth and prices is obviously down, down, down to anyone with half a brain.  "

That's just the gloss they are putting on it...the real world stats will be much different.....they are probably struggling to manipulate it and keep it positive without just completely making it up in fear of getting caught out...perhaps by some whistleblower or a separate entity

 

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4 minutes ago, ftb_fml said:

Despite a brief up-tick in most figures for the past four months the clearly obvious trend in growth and prices is obviously down, down, down to anyone with half a brain.  

This statement also illustrates how much the despised help to buy schemes is propping up the new build market..

..and as usual the FTB's are taking progressively more of the burden in buying into the last days of / propping up this bubble.

I hope we don't have to wait until HTB is over (assuming it ever will be) for the real price corrections to begin...

yes but that's just new builds so away from new builds it will be a completely different picture.....

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1 minute ago, Spindler said:

yes but that's just new builds so away from new builds it will be a completely different picture.....

One would hope so, but it's still no good thing as more tax payer's money flows into the pockets of developers for their disgustingly over-priced and sub-par orange hutches, while these subsidised prices all help to keep the HPI figures and associated sentiment inflated...

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just a few years back in Manchester area someone i know newish build 4 beds detached...had terrible trouble selling...because no subsidies or assistance...all the buyers were off to the  BRAND NEW builds down the road

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7 minutes ago, ftb_fml said:

One would hope so, but it's still no good thing as more tax payer's money flows into the pockets of developers for their disgustingly over-priced and sub-par orange hutches, while these subsidised prices all help to keep the HPI figures and associated sentiment inflated...

yes agreed HTB distorts the stats.....those buyers of new builds with HTB will rue the day though....instant negative equity now....a few years down the line willl be brutal as prices correct

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Can you please stop smearing the index, with nothing to substantiate what you are saying?

Remember that the land registry data is openly available, and you can create your own index and let us know how you came up with a negative of x%. 

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@propertylionuk found a 3% annual fall in rightmove CURRENT asking prices in April.

Oddly rightmoves own initial asking price index shows no such big fall. 

Oddly nationwide showed no such fall. Oddly halifax showed no such fall. 

 

I'll believe the actual data everything else is advertising. 

 

The July figure from property lion should be very telling. 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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 Nothing?  -  A huge V.I with massive reason for keeping it going.  Yeah right.

I have thought about the various indexes, and concluded the average Joe is SO very thick, and HP greed is so established, that they will remain a driver of public sentiment and even if proved naff would continue to be believed.

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1 hour ago, Freki said:

Can you please stop smearing the index, with nothing to substantiate what you are saying?

Remember that the land registry data is openly available, and you can create your own index and let us know how you came up with a negative of x%. 

perhaps you can provide something that provides confirmation of Nationwide's solid basis of data ?

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No I will just call you out on your low hand methods of blind smearing without providing anything to substantiate. You are the one who has posted several posts back to back to try to discredit the index, once again without providing any evidence.

I don't really see how what it is describing is far from the reality experienced in the UK. Prices are not falling dramatically, there is a lot of pent up demand, the props are still around to support the insane levels. When it was describing the insanity of the 12% YoY growth, I think it was pretty accurate. Now we are slowly going into negative territory. 

Why do you think this VI index is only reporting +0.6% and not +1.6%? surely it will enable more of a FOMO mentality. I think you should stick with ZH comments

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16 minutes ago, Freki said:

No I will just call you out on your low hand methods of blind smearing without providing anything to substantiate. You are the one who has posted several posts back to back to try to discredit the index, once again without providing any evidence.

I don't really see how what it is describing is far from the reality experienced in the UK. Prices are not falling dramatically, there is a lot of pent up demand, the props are still around to support the insane levels. When it was describing the insanity of the 12% YoY growth, I think it was pretty accurate. Now we are slowly going into negative territory. 

Why do you think this VI index is only reporting +0.6% and not +1.6%? surely it will enable more of a FOMO mentality. I think you should stick with ZH comments

This is a Trollimage.png.d4f32ce15ba968affe8fd749b2bf92e0.png

Edited by Spindler

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Says the guy who has an average of 20 posts a day since created and can't talk data?

Sure, like I said ZH comment section will have you with open arms ;)

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14 minutes ago, Freki said:

No I will just call you out on your low hand methods of blind smearing without providing anything to substantiate. You are the one who has posted several posts back to back to try to discredit the index, once again without providing any evidence.

I don't really see how what it is describing is far from the reality experienced in the UK. Prices are not falling dramatically, there is a lot of pent up demand, the props are still around to support the insane levels. When it was describing the insanity of the 12% YoY growth, I think it was pretty accurate. Now we are slowly going into negative territory.  

Why do you think this VI index is only reporting +0.6% and not +1.6%? surely it will enable more of a FOMO mentality. I think you should stick with ZH comments

Indeed i get the idea there is a bit of tin foil hat wearing since post MMR there have been many on here constantly saying house prices are falling. This doesnt seem to be the case I know someone who has even flipped a profit in the south east in the last year. The only accurate figures are the land registry that are freely available to everyone and you can create your own statistics. They are not showing big falls or indeed even small falls round my part of the south east.

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2 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

Indeed i get the idea there is a bit of tin foil hat wearing since post MMR there have been many on here constantly saying house prices are falling. This doesnt seem to be the case I know someone who has even flipped a profit in the south east in the last year. The only accurate figures are the land registry that are freely available to everyone and you can create your own statistics. They are not showing big falls or indeed even small falls round my part of the south east.

I do not agree with you and believe you are talking up your own book....there will always be exceptions to the rule....mate 237k from 305k asking....taken 2 years to sell...i hate leasehold...but it's one of the few i would consider...near station near town near the river.....many houses around here can't even get viewings let alone offers....mate had 2 sales fall through on the flat....

This has only just begun...prices peaked end 2015....with MMR BTL to up their exit at least the leveraged crowd....its big falls ahead....2023 willlook like the 90's but worse...

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i was dismayed from 2012 to 2015 but that sugar rush from HTB is practically over...... and MMR and S24 are making and going to make the wheels come off...

 

The HTB crowd are mostly likely in negative equity and that will worsen to horrific levels

Edited by Spindler

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14 minutes ago, Spindler said:

I do not agree with you and believe you are talking up your own book....there will always be exceptions to the rule....mate 237k from 305k asking....taken 2 years to sell...i hate leasehold...but it's one of the few i would consider...near station near town near the river.....many houses around here can't even get viewings let alone offers....mate had 2 sales fall through on the flat....

This has only just begun...prices peaked end 2015....with MMR BTL to up their exit at least the leveraged crowd....its big falls ahead....2023 willlook like the 90's but worse...

You know nothing about me yet you accuse me of that. That is trolling. Look the latest ONS statistics (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/march2019  ) show a 1.4% rise so a real terms fall as wage inflation is running at over twice this. For me and what I can see this figure is about right some areas are showing falls (London and some areas) but my area of east anglia and I am looking at what sells as I am looking to buy (and need a crash to get what i want).

The nationwide is an index that drives sentiment like halifax rightmove and HSL but for actually giving actual statistics i wouldn't give it the time of day. The ONS with their published datasets via the land registry is a different kettle of fish and much better.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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