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Chatting with a friend from Cambridge over the weekend. He drives plant vehicles on building sites. Said there's a 40% drop in residential new build activity: sites mothballed, work paused or canned. Something is afoot!

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Another example of the new north-south divide.

It's been just the opposite in my area these last 6-12 months... plots that have lain unsold and empty for years have all been snapped up and immediately built on, half finished mothballed developments all sprung back to life and completed.

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3 hours ago, nome said:

Another example of the new north-south divide.

It's been just the opposite in my area these last 6-12 months... plots that have lain unsold and empty for years have all been snapped up and immediately built on, half finished mothballed developments all sprung back to life and completed.

north still has headroom under HTB for further manipulation growth?

Cambridge probably already at the limit for a shoebox.

The answer = raise the HTB limit to help those enjoy the benefit of home ownership like their parents did.

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13 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

north still has headroom under HTB for further manipulation growth?

Cambridge probably already at the limit for a shoebox.

The answer = raise the HTB limit to help those enjoy the benefit of home ownership like their parents did.

Where I am in Leeds there seem to be a lot of flipping activity, BTLrs still keen etc.

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https://www.which.co.uk/news/2019/05/will-the-new-help-to-buy-scheme-really-help-first-time-buyers/

 

DONT PANIC DONT PANIC!!

Concerns over Help to Buy price caps

With just under two years until the price caps come into force, the government is already facing criticism for setting the levels in Autumn 2018 rather than waiting until much nearer the launch date.

The estate agency group Hamptons International claims that first-time buyers in the North of England could struggle to buy a home using Help to Buy if the current caps remain.

As it stands, homes in the North East of England will have price caps of £186,100. Hamptons says this is too low, pointing to the fact that the average new-build home sold in the region last year was £208,220. The agency claims that 53% of new homes in the region would be too expensive for Help to Buy if the caps were brought in now – let alone in two years.

And it’s not just the North that could be affected.

Hamptons says 44% of new homes are sold in the East Midlands for more than its cap of £261,900, while 43% of new-builds in the West Midlands would breach the limit of £255,600.

 

DONT GET ME STARTED!!

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That's amazing, but then to be fair, do they have a direct vested interest in new build sales prices, or is it the indirect effect of new build extortion encouraging upward pressure on existing home 'bargains'?

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5 hours ago, Si1 said:

Where I am in Leeds there seem to be a lot of flipping activity, BTLrs still keen etc.

Same for where I am in Leeds too unfortunately. All systems go this last month. Lots of volume and stuff selling.

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13 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Same for where I am in Leeds too unfortunately. All systems go this last month. Lots of volume and stuff selling.

The stats seem to suggest prices are static however, on home.co.uk

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The lower the price the area the better prospects for HTB manipulation.

Log way to go to 600k so pause the sites where the houses are 500-600k and move the lads to work on the sites in the areas around 200-400k and boost those prices up there.

HTB is a textbook case of the subsidy becoming the market.  

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Why in God’s name would anyone want to sell a good quality built period house for a smaller plot, lower quality 600-700k new build house. There must be people out there who do. perhaps the new houses are ‘prettier’ or something? Or just very good marketing 

I understand the first time buyers buying 200k new build as that’s often their only choice, with access to free easy money. 

HTB is the market, plenty will just take what’s offered to them not pausing for a split second to think of quality, negative equity, size and how suitable the house will be moving forward. Just ‘jumping on the ladder’ not realising the first step is covered in very strong superglue. 

We build some houses in this country, almost all are not fit for purpose. mental health problems and divorce galore are being stored up on mass. 

new build houses attracting morons like flies to a fly trap. 

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Since this thread is basically anecdotal I will weigh in with a recent observation. I've been watching family houses in a mid sized town in the south east where I know someone who is trying to sell but failing to get viewings. I had assumed they were just overpriced but looking on RM they are *relatively* good value. What is interesting to me is that family houses there have stopped selling so a glut is building. I know some of the houses have now been let out instead of sold so there is pent up supply. I would expect even before October brexit drama arrives, prices are going to have to drop if these vendors genuinely need to sell. I haven't made a quantitative prediction on here before but so I can point back to it in future I'm going predict a 10% drop by October. 

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On 27/05/2019 at 15:40, Trump Invective said:

homes in the North East of England will have price caps of £186,100. Hamptons says this is too low, pointing to the fact that the average new-build home sold in the region last year was £208,220.

You can buy a not new house up here for £50,000. Even then young couples struggle to find the deposit.

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1 hour ago, bushblairandbrown said:

Since this thread is basically anecdotal I will weigh in with a recent observation. I've been watching family houses in a mid sized town in the south east where I know someone who is trying to sell but failing to get viewings. I had assumed they were just overpriced but looking on RM they are *relatively* good value. What is interesting to me is that family houses there have stopped selling so a glut is building. I know some of the houses have now been let out instead of sold so there is pent up supply. I would expect even before October brexit drama arrives, prices are going to have to drop if these vendors genuinely need to sell. I haven't made a quantitative prediction on here before but so I can point back to it in future I'm going predict a 10% drop by October. 

I'm in the SE too. How many average local salaries is this property listed for? Are we talking 4 bed detached?

I'm seeing 4 bed detached at 15 times local salary. Nuts

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13 hours ago, copydude said:

You can buy a not new house up here for £50,000. Even then young couples struggle to find the deposit.

You can buy a not new house up here in an area you would want to live in for £100,000. I know as I do  and I could easily afford anything  else in the area (up to say £1.2m) however the transport links would be worse so we haven't moved.

Edited by Houdini

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59 minutes ago, Houdini said:

You can buy a not new house up here in an area you would want to live in for £100,000. I know as I do  and I could easily afford anything  else in the area (up to say £1.2m) however the transport links would be worse so we haven't moved.

There are pockets of the country where there are still 'affordable' houses. I paid £82k for my 3 bed ex council semi in West Lothian 15 years ago and the same type of house is currently selling in my street for £115k. I'm fortunate to be commutable to both Edinburgh and Glasgow and able to be paid a decent salary. 

The last time I made a similar comment on here a couple of people gutted me, asking how I thought £115k for a family home could be affordable for a couple on the minimum wage, but looking at the kinds of numbers in this thread it's still massively better than other parts of the country. 

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On 28/05/2019 at 07:01, jiltedjen said:

Why in God’s name would anyone want to sell a good quality built period house for a smaller plot, lower quality 600-700k new build house. There must be people out there who do. perhaps the new houses are ‘prettier’ or something? Or just very good marketing 

I understand the first time buyers buying 200k new build as that’s often their only choice, with access to free easy money. 

HTB is the market, plenty will just take what’s offered to them not pausing for a split second to think of quality, negative equity, size and how suitable the house will be moving forward. Just ‘jumping on the ladder’ not realising the first step is covered in very strong superglue. 

We build some houses in this country, almost all are not fit for purpose. mental health problems and divorce galore are being stored up on mass. 

new build houses attracting morons like flies to a fly trap. 

https://www.uswitch.com/mortgages/guides/mortgage-market-review/

ok so a couple on 30k each no kids = 180,000 + 25% deposit = £240,000

Take your income and deposit to a HTB property....

https://www.barratthomes.co.uk/Offers/Help-to-Buy/

5% deposit (woohoo) 18,000 + 20% loan from HMG 72,000 + 75% mortgage 270,000 = £360,000

So with HTB our heroes can pay 30% more.... and keep 40k of the deposit to lease a new car

If they both get 50k then your looking at MMR 300,000 (400K 75% LTV) and HTB 600,00 (95% LTV)

Nuts

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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3 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

https://www.uswitch.com/mortgages/guides/mortgage-market-review/

ok so a couple on 30k each no kids = 180,000 + 25% deposit = £240,000

Take your income and deposit to a HTB property....

https://www.barratthomes.co.uk/Offers/Help-to-Buy/

5% deposit (woohoo) 18,000 + 20% loan from HMG 72,000 + 75% mortgage 270,000 = £360,000

So with HTB our heroes can pay 30% more.... and keep 40k of the deposit to lease a new car

If they both get 50k then your looking at MMR 300,000 (400K 75% LTV) and HTB 600,00 (95% LTV)

Nuts

 

Definitely highlighted the lunacy of it all here. People think they're getting more house for their money, but they're just taking on more debt and overpaying. Give it a few years and the £360k new build will probably be worth the same as the £240k older house.

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7 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

https://www.uswitch.com/mortgages/guides/mortgage-market-review/

ok so a couple on 30k each no kids = 180,000 + 25% deposit = £240,000

Take your income and deposit to a HTB property....

https://www.barratthomes.co.uk/Offers/Help-to-Buy/

5% deposit (woohoo) 18,000 + 20% loan from HMG 72,000 + 75% mortgage 270,000 = £360,000

So with HTB our heroes can pay 30% more.... and keep 40k of the deposit to lease a new car

If they both get 50k then your looking at MMR 300,000 (400K 75% LTV) and HTB 600,00 (95% LTV)

Nuts

 

I think this is a helpful illustration of the whole HTB fiasco. 

I live in North York’s (nice town) and houses have always been a bit pricy v’s normal Yorkshire. But these new builds are a joke. 

I have just seen one listed on the second hand market. Bought last year for £420k and now listed at £350k...because it’s not new. And this is a relatively strong market. 

The whole marketing eg choose your cabinets, colour scheme, bathroom etc make it an opportunity to ‘shop’ rather rather buy an actual property to live in. 

New builds combined with HTB is a disaster waiting to happen for some families. 

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21 hours ago, Sausage said:

I'm in the SE too. How many average local salaries is this property listed for? Are we talking 4 bed detached?

I'm seeing 4 bed detached at 15 times local salary. Nuts

Yes exactly. That was the point I initially raised with them and why it is so interesting. House prices are probably 10+ times local professional salaries there. They may be affordable for London commuters but really I just can't see why you'd live there if you didn't work locally and the commute to London would be fairly brutal. Still, other comparable houses are at a higher price. Theirs is the best value and still not a sniff of interest. Would take some psychological courage to drop the price further before everyone else follows suit anyway. I'm not comfortable suggesting they do that - better conventionally wrong than unconventionally right and all that. 

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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