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ElPapasito

Dithering At The Peak

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http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...pe=post&id=2273

For the last year or more prices have hovered around the x6 of average earnings.

That is unprecedented. Every previous peak was very pointy - up quick and down quickly again. Many think we have entered a 'new paradigm'.

Actually it is a mega-disaster. Each month that passes more and more buy into the peak prices. I think I've heard 1/8 of houses change hands each year or something. Can you imagine how many people are locked into high prices this time. Even though at the time I had no interest in housing I remember all sorts of bleating from people in the early 90's just from that little foothill of a peak on the graph .

Look at the mother of all himalayan HP mountains we've got to get down this time. What'll it be like in 5 years from now? :unsure: What frightens me is that it'll be SO bad this time that somehow we all going to be forced to help dig the sheeple out of the mire whether we like it or not.

EP

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http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...pe=post&id=2273

For the last year or more prices have hovered around the x6 of average earnings.

That is unprecedented. Every previous peak was very pointy - up quick and down quickly again. Many think we have entered a 'new paradigm'.

Actually it is a mega-disaster. Each month that passes more and more buy into the peak prices. I think I've heard 1/8 of houses change hands each year or something. Can you imagine how many people are locked into high prices this time. Even though at the time I had no interest in housing I remember all sorts of bleating from people in the early 90's just from that little foothill of a peak on the graph .

Look at the mother of all himalayan HP mountains we've got to get down this time. What'll it be like in 5 years from now? :unsure: What frightens me is that it'll be SO bad this time that somehow we all going to be forced to help dig the sheeple out of the mire whether we like it or not.

EP

Interesting - and if one eighth (or so) of houses change hands every year - although turnover is down at the moment - it does mean a massive debt backlog is building up, for as long as it lasts.

With prices are levitating at this level, what's holding them up? It can't be first time buyers - they only make up 7% of the market. Is it investors without brains? Or people swapping houses between each other? Something doesn't make sense.

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With prices are levitating at this level, what's holding them up? It can't be first time buyers - they only make up 7% of the market. Is it investors without brains? Or people swapping houses between each other? Something doesn't make sense.

In reality, nothing is sustaining those prices apart from hype and spin.

I'm trying not to look at reports from Hometrack, Nationwide, Halifax, Rightmove because I think all of their models are flawed. As has been discussed in other threads, the group of houses selling at this current time is not the same representation of the market as two (or more) years ago. When more big houses sell in proportion to the number of small ones, the statistics are skewed.

Prices are sliding slowly but the stats and reports are masking the reality of the situation. Without a discernable downward trend, the 'Vested Interests' can continue their propaganda war. Their jobs and buy-to-let properties rely on it.

Xil.

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Or people swapping houses between each other? Something doesn't make sense.

This is something that a friend of kept telling me when i was refusing to buy in this bloated market.one of my arguments to him was that at some point with the very low numbers of ftb entering the market and investors getting more savvy that buyers would become more thin on the ground and that was his argument that 70% of people own their own houses and they could sustain the market by selling to each other well time will tell and imo it will prop things up for a period of time,shows how foolish homeowners are to swap higher debt between themselves....................

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http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...pe=post&id=2273

Actually it is a mega-disaster. Each month that passes more and more buy into the peak prices. I think I've heard 1/8 of houses change hands each year or something. Can you imagine how many people are locked into high prices this time. Even though at the time I had no interest in housing I remember all sorts of bleating from people in the early 90's just from that little foothill of a peak on the graph .

EP

Hmm... I think that churn varies a lot from area to area, but the overall figure is 5% rather than 12.5%. Perhaps that's changed recently

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Or people swapping houses between each other? Something doesn't make sense.

Just to give a few examples, some people are downsizing: that means they can buy at the bottom of a chain even if FTBs aren't. Some people are still deliberately BTL-ing. Others are accidentally BTL-ing when they find they can't sell their house to buy the one they want to buy, so they just get a second mortgage and try to rent out the old house.

Those can all prop up a market for a while, but are unlikely to do so indefinitely.

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x6 times earnings? Affordability has never been so easier!

x6 mortgage

x6 stress rate

x6 suicde rate

x6 divorce rate

x6 x6 x6x 6x x6 for the dumb BTLs

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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