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crazychick

Lower End Of Market - Prices Dropping Quickly

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After studying house prices for a few years - over the past couple of months I have noticed that houses at the lower end of the market [selling for £90k+ in 2004] now have asking prices of £75k-£85k - and still not selling. The middle range of houses i.e. semis seem to be dropping slightly [apart from a few over the past week being valued at ridiculous levels :o ]. Would you say this is the start of the crash? I would have thought that the price drops would be across all prices - seems strange that the cheapest are hit first.

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now have asking prices of £75k-£85k - and still not selling.

Crickey - where do you live? A starter home for less than £100K !? you're joking right.

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Crickey - where do you live? A starter home for less than £100K !? you're joking right.

Where I live in Dorset FTBer houses are £150k minimum. £200k for a modest family house! Not much movement in prices and not many sales.

It is easy to get a certain feel for the property market depending on where in the country you live. House prices in the midlands and lincolnshire look very cheap too me. I guess it is the cheaper parts of the country which is keeping this bubble going along...longer...

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It could be dumped BTL or SIPPS stock.

I have noticed that there seems to be a shortage of terraced houses in certain towns in the midlands and the south on the market compared with semis and flats. This most likely a result of a higher than average proportion of terraced houses being used as BTL properties. An increase in terraces for sale could be a good indicator that the BTL landlords are offloading properties and that houses at the lower end of the market are vulnerable to a fall. This is something to keep an eye open for.

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After studying house prices for a few years - over the past couple of months I have noticed that houses at the lower end of the market [selling for £90k+ in 2004] now have asking prices of £75k-£85k - and still not selling. The middle range of houses i.e. semis seem to be dropping slightly [apart from a few over the past week being valued at ridiculous levels :o ]. Would you say this is the start of the crash? I would have thought that the price drops would be across all prices - seems strange that the cheapest are hit first.

I am seeing the opposite. The stagnation/falls are happening at the higher end of the market in the nicer areas. The price of smaller 2 bed terrace housing, even in the less well off areas is rising.

My theory: as more and more people are priced out of the market there are more people at the very bottom of the ladder chasing the cheaper properties. This puts upward pressure on the typical FTB property and creates price consolidation e.g the gaps between the nicer houses in nicer areas and the worse houses in not so nice areas gets less.

Eventually the whole thing stagnates as the last people have been sucked in at the bottom.

Sooner or later people start slashing prices. Those at the very top can afford to do this. They have usually paid off their mortgage, have a large house which they bought years ago (the difference between £550K and £500K is not as big as the difference between £150K and £100K) and are making pure profit. They just want to downsize/move to spain etc.

Eventually people realise that if a three bed semi in a good area costs £250K then they are not going to pay £220K for a s bed terrace in a not so good area....and the slow drift downwards of house prices begins.

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After studying house prices for a few years - over the past couple of months I have noticed that houses at the lower end of the market [selling for £90k+ in 2004] now have asking prices of £75k-£85k - and still not selling. The middle range of houses i.e. semis seem to be dropping slightly [apart from a few over the past week being valued at ridiculous levels :o ]. Would you say this is the start of the crash? I would have thought that the price drops would be across all prices - seems strange that the cheapest are hit first.

Hate to say I told you so... no I don't :P I have given it up now, but I was running a test of periferal crap changes daily on rightmove for about a year.

Just after Trev did 'Repossession, Repossession, Repossession" about september, periferal crap listings shot through the roof, they stablised, but I reckon the perifery is where the changes will be felt first and ultimately felt most. Those who couldn't buy a house used to buy a flat first. But the differentials between flats and houses have contracted to almost nothing (due to New Build marketing/pricing mechanisms mostly I think, but also because it has become simply impossible to own the earth beneath your feet and marginally possible on ridiculous gearings to own a pied a terre without the terre in a nasty part of the urban landscape). BTL had a lot to do with it too. A lot of buy in to BTL was by the speculative poor on the basis that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Pop knowledge via the Teev has shifted to marketing and investment in property. BLT is out. So there is one segment of the buying pop gone. FTBs are getting antsy and worried. Thats it. If you own periferal crap and you have 1/2 a brain you will be flogging it now.

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I am seeing the opposite. The stagnation/falls are happening at the higher end of the market in the nicer areas. The price of smaller 2 bed terrace housing, even in the less well off areas is rising.

Expect to see falls from the top downwards unless supply of lower end property is increased by former BTL houses being placed on the market.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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