Bank of England forecast for HPI

[neon tetra]

In Carney’s forward guidance today, this:

What is the outlook for the housing market?

The Bank expects a fall in UK house prices this year, with property values predicted to fall by 1.25%.

It says some households are likely to have delayed moving house because of Brexit uncertainty.

It also says that affordability is also slowing the market, particularly in areas where prices are high, such as London and the South East.

[dpg50000]

1.25% - so precise of them, again trying to give the impression that they can predict and control the falls. Still, if they're now admitting they expect a fall this year, that indicates prices are already falling and they've realised they can't hide the fact anymore.

[Spindler]

36 minutes ago, dpg50000 said:

1.25% - so precise of them, again trying to give the impression that they can predict and control the falls. Still, if they're now admitting they expect a fall this year, that indicates prices are already falling and they've realised they can't hide the fact anymore. 

1.25 that is the equivalent of parting a gnats hairline with a rifle bullet at 100 yards !

 

Edited May 2, 2019 by Spindler

[Spindler]

1.25....It just looks like a so stupid figure...... so I guess they think we are all stupid after all....

But acceptance of downwards trajectory is that the equivalent of them dropping breadcrumbs so they can point to the trail where they mentioned falls......?

[rollover]

31 minutes ago, Spindler said:

1.25....It just looks like a so stupid figure...... so I guess they think we are all stupid after all....

But acceptance of downwards trajectory is that the equivalent of them dropping breadcrumbs so they can point to the trail where they mentioned falls......?

I was thinking the same, he can't get the figure right.

But more important is the message:

Interest rate increases could be "more frequent" than expected if the economy performs as the Bank of England is expecting

and property values predicted to fall by 1.25%

 

 

[Staffsknot]

Sounds like he is trying to talk down ideas of a large fall. Would be intrigued to know how they reached this figure as seems as finger in the air as Nationwide or Halifax.

Crucially though it is in all the papers and that might be good enough to push a few reductions

[bear.getting.old]

The Fing bloke hasn't a sodding clue. 

"Interest rate increases could be "more frequent" than expected if the economy performs as the Bank of England is expecting"

Talk about contradicting yourself!

[zugzwang]

4 hours ago, dpg50000 said:

1.25% - so precise of them, again trying to give the impression that they can predict and control the falls. Still, if they're now admitting they expect a fall this year, that indicates prices are already falling and they've realised they can't hide the fact anymore.

Three significant figures! Comedy gold.

 

[longgone]

surely 12.5% this year and for the next 5 years no ?? 

That pesky decimal point. 

[Spindler]

when buying and selling does anyone put in an offer 1.25% below asking ?

Would any seller(i would) be perplexed at receiving such an offer ? You'd know the buyer was an idiot just from that...

[hurlerontheditch]

8 hours ago, longgone said:

surely 12.5% this year and for the next 5 years no ?? 

That pesky decimal point. 

that wont happen. too many people in power with too much skin in the game to let that happen. 

[longgone]

5 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

that wont happen. too many people in power with too much skin in the game to let that happen. 

when you cut yourself wound turns to scab then scab turns to new skin ?

[scottbeard]

20 hours ago, dpg50000 said:

1.25% - so precise of them, again trying to give the impression that they can predict and control the falls. Still, if they're now admitting they expect a fall this year, that indicates prices are already falling and they've realised they can't hide the fact anymore.

 

5 hours ago, Spindler said:

when buying and selling does anyone put in an offer 1.25% below asking ?

Probably the median output of a stochastic model, rounded to the nearest quarter of a percent.

An expected value of -1.25% doesn't actually mean you genuinely "expect" (in everyday language) exactly that number, "expected value" in statistics just means the sum of all possible outcomes multiplied by the probability of that outcome.

A fall of -1.25% wouldn't occur because everyone suddenly offers (or ends up paying) precisely £197,500 on every £200,000 asking price.  It would occur when a large number of increases and falls all averaged out end up averaging out to that level.

It's like saying the (statistically) expected temperature of an August day is 21C - no-one would "expect" every day to be exactly that, it's just a forward looking average value.

[Fromage Frais]

They dont want falls.

So admitting a fall is a big deal.

1.25% I wager will feel like circa 5% out there in the real world.

[Spindler]

2 hours ago, scottbeard said:

 

Probably the median output of a stochastic model, rounded to the nearest quarter of a percent.

An expected value of -1.25% doesn't actually mean you genuinely "expect" (in everyday language) exactly that number, "expected value" in statistics just means the sum of all possible outcomes multiplied by the probability of that outcome.

A fall of -1.25% wouldn't occur because everyone suddenly offers (or ends up paying) precisely £197,500 on every £200,000 asking price.  It would occur when a large number of increases and falls all averaged out end up averaging out to that level.

It's like saying the (statistically) expected temperature of an August day is 21C - no-one would "expect" every day to be exactly that, it's just a forward looking average value.

so a load of old baloney then really ?

Sounds lke something Mr Logic from Viz would cough up