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Nationwide HPI April 2019...?

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well this is all reminiscent of 89/90 and 06/07....Northern Rock and their 125% loans......the only things i can see pouring accelerant on the dying flames are HTB for the wider market...and breaking open pension money......without that...she's going down....

Bruce ISmay 15th April 1912  " this ship can;t SINK"

Thomas Andrews "She's made of Iron Sir...I assure you she can"

Edited by Spindler

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I tend to disagree with you there. Although she's fully laden there is no hole in the hull, so to speak and very little ice in the surrounding area...

For a crash to happen there needs to be a source of ignition. In 06-08 that was subprime 'teaser' rates expiring, in '89 it was Margaret Thatcher running out of future generations' money coupled with an oil price shock and in 1929-31 it was (IIRC) a small bank in France which got the ball rolling. But the common theme here is that they were all unstable markets, which is not where we are now. House prices are starting to mostly flatline whilst interest rates are stuck and sources of inflation subdued. And although it's a coiled spring, I just cannot see where the destabiliser is going to come from.

Anyone?

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18 hours ago, Gush said:

jeremy corbyn. Promise to build million social housing, tax btl out of market.

God. If Corbyn gets in I'm not sure any of us will want to buy a house. Except maybe in another country.

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On 01/05/2019 at 18:18, LandOfConfusion said:

I tend to disagree with you there. Although she's fully laden there is no hole in the hull, so to speak and very little ice in the surrounding area...

For a crash to happen there needs to be a source of ignition. In 06-08 that was subprime 'teaser' rates expiring, in '89 it was Margaret Thatcher running out of future generations' money coupled with an oil price shock and in 1929-31 it was (IIRC) a small bank in France which got the ball rolling. But the common theme here is that they were all unstable markets, which is not where we are now. House prices are starting to mostly flatline whilst interest rates are stuck and sources of inflation subdued. And although it's a coiled spring, I just cannot see where the destabiliser is going to come from.

Anyone?

I must correct you. Thatcher did not rely on future generations money, she was a PM of business and no free money. The 1989 crash was caused by the ERM crash out, associated high interest rates coupled with an end to MIRAS.

Today you could read the end of HTB or HTB loans requiring payback, rising rates as the trigger

Edited by bear.getting.old

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1 hour ago, bear.getting.old said:

Thatcher did not rely on future generations money, she was a PM of business and no free money.

Thatcher selling houses at a discount to market prices under Right to Buy proves that statement is not true. That was free money for the recipients of Right to Buy and it left the state with a worse balance sheet to be handed to the next generation.

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On 02/05/2019 at 21:32, bear.getting.old said:

Today you could read the end of HTB or HTB loans requiring payback, rising rates as the trigger

I suspect HTB to be part of the problem but not the cause. Rising interest rates OTOH... I read a piece today where Mr Carne suggested that IR's could rise shortly after he leaves in January. OK, he's been suggesting that for a while now but there are plenty of people for whom a 0.5% rise would be financially terminal.

Side note: I was talking to a 26 year old colleague last week re: house prices and he was pretty confident that they would only ever go up. I've seen articles where people around his age were HTB'ing their first home and taking on some pretty staggering debt in the process. Lambs to the slaughter?

On 02/05/2019 at 22:38, Dorkins said:

Thatcher selling houses at a discount to market prices under Right to Buy proves that statement is not true. That was free money for the recipients of Right to Buy and it left the state with a worse balance sheet to be handed to the next generation.

And it left us with massive problems when the '89-'90 crash happened and we needed council homes for all those that had brought, and lost, theirs.

Also I was  going to mention the selling off of national assets (Tell Sid!), particularly water & north sea oil. And whereas Norway invested their oil windfall in a sovereign wealth fund she seems to have blown ours on welfare.

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  • 241 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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