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Nationwide HPI April 2019...?


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IIRC figures are usually released in the last few days of the month; however today is the last day of April and they're not out yet.

Does anyone have a link to a summary of the release dates for this info please, if there is one?

I'm sure they'll be along soon anyway, so we might as well treat this as the usual monthly prediction thread. I'm hoping for accelerated losses in the SE and perhaps a bit of a fall in annual growth from last month's 0.7%, but I don't expect it to go negative yet..

 

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4 hours ago, evictee said:

I've just finished updating https://houseprices.io/ with March's sales if anyone's interested.

Fantastic tool and for several years I've been seeing the same in the areas I follow in the North West and North East. Yet another month with a paltry number of transactions and hardly anything selling above £150k which is understandable taking wages in these areas into account.  Most property listed for sale (but not selling) is on for 200k+

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19 hours ago, evictee said:

I've just finished updating https://houseprices.io/ with March's sales if anyone's interested.

Thanks, that really useful.

4 hours ago, LetsBuild said:

+0.4% MoM

+0.9% YoY

I've been looking at a few houses around here (SE) recently and it's a mixed market. All the asking price falls have been on less desirable / 'froth of the market' type homes whereas the more desirable areas have either held or in some cases even sold for more. For example, one place near me was on for £315k, which was reasonable given the lack of drive / parking & amount of work needed (looked like it hadn't been updated since the 1970's) but it recently sold for £342.5k, which seems astonishing.

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2 hours ago, LandOfConfusion said:

Thanks, that really useful.

I've been looking at a few houses around here (SE) recently and it's a mixed market. All the asking price falls have been on less desirable / 'froth of the market' type homes whereas the more desirable areas have either held or in some cases even sold for more. For example, one place near me was on for £315k, which was reasonable given the lack of drive / parking & amount of work needed (looked like it hadn't been updated since the 1970's) but it recently sold for £342.5k, which seems astonishing.

i'm sure and chances are existing equity is financing that.....there will always be these anomalies.....as the market totters......the peak is most definitely someway behind...us outside of more intervention..the trajectory is serious correcton territory.....where we are now i liken to the phoney war from in 1939.....its going to kick off in a major fashion just a question of when !

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1 hour ago, Spindler said:

i'm sure and chances are existing equity is financing that.....there will always be these anomalies

You're probably right; I live in a commuter town and if you're desperate enough...

TBH though I think this is the 'peak' - I'm not seeing a lot of price action either way just mostly flat. From where I'm standing it looks like the constraint on prices going higher is interest rates while the constraints on prices falling is lack of supply coupled with... interest rates. I can get a 10-year fix for circa. 2.5% and today I found out you can get a 5-year fix for just 2%. With that sort of surety of rate and term prices will inevitably reach a peak and just stay there.

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its going to kick off in a major fashion just a question of when !

To me it's only a question of what. I don't read the Sun but one of their, er, 'articles' came up on Google News and the headline was interesting enough so I had a look. Although it was pure newbuild property price pumping masquerading as 'advice' it did reveal one interesting titbit: the couple featured had taken on approximately £260k in debt and brought their newbuild with just a £12k deposit. They had so little money left that they ended up buying their furniture by maxing out with £2k in credit card debt!

That is one hell of a coiled spring and if typical would lead to devastating consequences for both the housing market and banking sector, should IR's rise. That equates to a lot of pressure, both political and economic for the current trend to continue and it will take something pretty major for that to be overcome. But what?

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well this is all reminiscent of 89/90 and 06/07....Northern Rock and their 125% loans......the only things i can see pouring accelerant on the dying flames are HTB for the wider market...and breaking open pension money......without that...she's going down....

Bruce ISmay 15th April 1912  " this ship can;t SINK"

Thomas Andrews "She's made of Iron Sir...I assure you she can"

Edited by Spindler
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