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RM April 2019 +1.1% MoM

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36 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Hah, ready for a brexit relief rally, why? The cans only been kicked 6 months - nothing has changed. The spring bounce has been neutered and we are heading for the summer doldrums, only now even the most stubborn landlords are going to want to sell as no fault evictions look like are about to be a thing of the past.

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As it is only mid April, it appears to “cover” the last month of the TY.  It is a puff piece by a huge V.I., trying to pull an Easter from the hat, and combat S21, RICs...

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I have been following a number of properties in my area, many have been on for 6 months or more, but in the past two weeks many of the descent ones have sold. There is definitely a change...it may lead to price drops in the short term as people accept lower offers, but if other properties aren’t listed then prices will start rising again. The economy is doing well, unemployment is low, IRs are low, I can see the HPC being called off for a while.

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9 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

I have been following a number of properties in my area, many have been on for 6 months or more, but in the past two weeks many of the descent ones have sold. There is definitely a change...it may lead to price drops in the short term as people accept lower offers, but if other properties aren’t listed then prices will start rising again. The economy is doing well, unemployment is low, IRs are low, I can see the HPC being called off for a while.

I really don't believe our economy is doing well and am surprised that anyone else does.  I live in the 'prosperous' South East and I think the economy is on the edge of tanking - it far too dependent on consumer spending and that is stretched beyond breaking point.

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33 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

I have been following a number of properties in my area, many have been on for 6 months or more, but in the past two weeks many of the descent ones have sold. There is definitely a change...it may lead to price drops in the short term as people accept lower offers, but if other properties aren’t listed then prices will start rising again. The economy is doing well, unemployment is low, IRs are low, I can see the HPC being called off for a while.

Similar over here

However I dont think the market could take a influx of listings.

The dearth of decent houses is the only thing holding up some decent corrections.

Vendors with the only semi decent 4 bed detached in a whole area have no competition atm so logically holding out.

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1 hour ago, hurlerontheditch said:

 

I am a good chunk of that

Desperate to buy..... yes

Search all the time..... yes

anything I like ..... no

going to pay 650 for a house bought in 2016 for 450....no

my looking does not mean that I am going to buy anything

 

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44 minutes ago, dougless said:

I really don't believe our economy is doing well and am surprised that anyone else does.  I live in the 'prosperous' South East and I think the economy is on the edge of tanking - it far too dependent on consumer spending and that is stretched beyond breaking point.

I think it depends what business you are in.  I have a company in electrical engineer ng and one in Artificial Intelligence.  They are both booming.  Locally some restaurants never seem to have any customers but there are 20 + restaurants in a very small high street which is just not sustainable in a location which has a small target market.  

18 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

The dearth of decent houses is the only thing holding up some decent corrections.

But that is inevitable - when the market is tough many people will just not bother to sell unless they have to.  That prevents huge drops t

2 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

going to pay 650 for a house bought in 2016 for 450....no

my looking does not mean that I am going to buy anything

No you are not going to buy anything 

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4 hours ago, happyguy said:

 

No you are not going to buy anything 

LOL

That's just wishful thinking on your part, Mr Troll!

My house, bought in early 2017, is now (according to Acadata) worth about what I paid for it, having unexpectedly gone up by about 10% (Acadata again) in the meantime.

I fully expect it to continue to depreciate.

Edit: Too funny... https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/234222-latest-rics-survey/&do=findComment&comment=1103472147

 

Edited by Bruce Banner

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3 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

I have been following a number of properties in my area, many have been on for 6 months or more, but in the past two weeks many of the descent ones have sold. There is definitely a change...it may lead to price drops in the short term as people accept lower offers, but if other properties aren’t listed then prices will start rising again. The economy is doing well, unemployment is low, IRs are low, I can see the HPC being called off for a while.

" but if other properties aren’t listed then prices will start rising again "   That old chesnut...credit availability determines prices not property scarcity...the market is correcting lower...surveyors lenders know this caution is gathering pace....the few sales that get done will be the price discovery a t the margin.......someone can sit in their self detrmined 500k house as long as they like any similar house or houses that get sold will be the benchmark...up or down....if thats down....and an identical house is sold for 300k......thats your new price.....

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3 hours ago, Spindler said:

" but if other properties aren’t listed then prices will start rising again "   That old chesnut...credit availability determines prices not property scarcity...the market is correcting lower...surveyors lenders know this caution is gathering pace....the few sales that get done will be the price discovery a t the margin.......someone can sit in their self detrmined 500k house as long as they like any similar house or houses that get sold will be the benchmark...up or down....if thats down....and an identical house is sold for 300k......thats your new price.....

I think it depends on the area. Where I am there is a shortage of good semis and detached, with a good garden and close to good school and amenities. These sell fast and often above asking but comprise only ~5% of the market. I wouldn't consider the other 95% of the market no matter how cheap it got. I don't think the economy is doing well but that is irrelevant to the doctors and dentists who can always afford that top 5% of properties

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58 minutes ago, Killian said:

I think it depends on the area. Where I am there is a shortage of good semis and detached, with a good garden and close to good school and amenities. These sell fast and often above asking but comprise only ~5% of the market. I wouldn't consider the other 95% of the market no matter how cheap it got. I don't think the economy is doing well but that is irrelevant to the doctors and dentists who can always afford that top 5% of properties

This is a very good point, 5% of the market may indeed be booming, 4 bed detached homes with decent gardens (ie something large enough to build a second shoebox on), but the rest of the market, the other 95%, consisting BTL, flats, semis, hmos, mansions is in the toilet and will be even with loosening credit and HTB props.

Edited by GreenDevil

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The economy is doing well hahaaa! Because it is housing-based on free steroids and you see a few people spending a couple of quid on food and drinks....people spending more debt...they havent got enough debt onboard, have some more debt. Deliquency rate in US through the roof, U3 jobs falling (U6 tanked 10 years ago).....We are next, if hasnt already happened in the numbers! 

Edited by Maximus Skepticus

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12 hours ago, Killian said:

I think it depends on the area. Where I am there is a shortage of good semis and detached, with a good garden and close to good school and amenities. These sell fast and often above asking but comprise only ~5% of the market. I wouldn't consider the other 95% of the market no matter how cheap it got. I don't think the economy is doing well but that is irrelevant to the doctors and dentists who can always afford that top 5% of properties

valid points and the exception doesnt make the rule so real estate is local in some respects....but this does not impact the situation for the whole market...and of cpurse much if not all of of the money for that 5% is coming from existing equity

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18 hours ago, happyguy said:

Locally some restaurants never seem to have any customers but there are 20 + restaurants in a very small high street which is just not sustainable in a location which has a small target market.  

I think the volume of restaurants is quite ridiculous anyway, even in a fair size city where I live. I'm sure we learned in A-level Business Studies about assessing the amount of competition and acting accordingly.

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As others have said, it is all about perspective. I have seen houses go on and sell in a week recently, but they are the 4 bed detached in a good location...they were not moving so quickly back in the winter. I have to decide whether to buy before October or renew the lease on my ridiculously expensive rental...or rent a dump. A real dilemma. 

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Or do both; buy TWO, just rent em both out, one of em to YOURSELF

 

Naturally there will come a time when you are forced to just bang the rents up on yourself, nothing personal strictly business you understand... that’s when the real fun begins 🧐

 

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  • 292 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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