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Chasing the market down

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14 hours ago, longgone said:

The 70s house I did up for my mum had that terrible warm air krap installed.cost a fortune to run and blew dust and muck around the house. Fun removing all the ducting and asbestos sheets. If copper was expensive then I see why they installed it. Although looking at the deeds the first purchaser paid 44k for the house in 1970 so was expensive then.

44k in 1970....must be the size of Southfork or be  central London..thats a lot then... iremeber parents talking about neigbours 3 beds semi being sold around that time maybe bit later ....nowhere near that.....i remember a 3 bed house in shepperton being sold in 1986 for 60k and they  bought a bungalow 2 bed detached for around 40k....

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1 hour ago, Spindler said:

...but that aside you didn't actually get even an offer .... hence no price discovery actually happened because your listing price was obviously too high..everything will find a price if it is marketed correctly....

 

I guess asking too much initially for reasons given prev. was our mistake.  We'd reduced asking by 20% before giving up which was less than slightly inferior places had exchanged for at the peak.  Oh well, perhaps next time we'll offer it cheap.  Luckily we have other funds, I feel sorry for anyone with all their eggs in one mortgaged basket.. 

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23 hours ago, spyguy said:

Get the street name, put it in houseprices.io, print out and give tio the selling EA and ask them why they think the price is correct.

MMR is a big change. Massive.

Now housing is being priced to what people earn - after regular outgoing, which can be fing huge thee days.

Pick an area. Look at how much people 25-45 earn - and youll find 80% of people dont earn more  than 30% more than the local median wage. Times it by 4. Thats how much mortgage finance is available. Thats your selling market.

 

 

Is it true that spyguy is an MI5 agent who manages the secret services interests in domestic housing? ;)

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4 hours ago, Spindler said:

44k in 1970....must be the size of Southfork or be  central London..thats a lot then... iremeber parents talking about neigbours 3 beds semi being sold around that time maybe bit later ....nowhere near that.....i remember a 3 bed house in shepperton being sold in 1986 for 60k and they  bought a bungalow 2 bed detached for around 40k....

neither really it is detached 4 bed.  i was surprised they paid 44k back then as the house i grew up in london was only 30k in 1975 another 4 bed detached. 

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6 hours ago, hotblack42 said:
 

I guess asking too much initially for reasons given prev. was our mistake.  We'd reduced asking by 20% before giving up which was less than slightly inferior places had exchanged for at the peak.  Oh well, perhaps next time we'll offer it cheap.  Luckily we have other funds, I feel sorry for anyone with all their eggs in one mortgaged basket.. 

Better to take the house off the market, wait 6 months then re-list with a different agent at what could be a more realistic price than keep doing "small"(still thousands of pounds!) reductions.  That way it doesn't go "stale". 

(I've done this in the past when initially I had 3 wildly different valuations from 3 different EAs and stupidly went with the highest and then wasted 4 months without a single viewing! )

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25 minutes ago, janch said:

Better to take the house off the market, wait 6 months then re-list with a different agent at what could be a more realistic price than keep doing "small"(still thousands of pounds!) reductions.  That way it doesn't go "stale". 

(I've done this in the past when initially I had 3 wildly different valuations from 3 different EAs and stupidly went with the highest and then wasted 4 months without a single viewing! )

Mitch Feierstein and his comment about houses are assets but not an asset class because they are so illiquid to buy and sell was bang on.....buying and selling houses is a royal pain in the derriere.......before exchange the whole process can end in a moment with a text and thats after you've had and accepted an offer.....from a viable buyer......and as for no viewings ...no offers....no interest....youre not even really on the market......just kite flying........

 

Sometimes  you see cars on autotrader that are so far out of whack.price wise....hoping for some mug to come along......its rare really....but the housing market at this time seems to be in a state of kite flying and wondering where the buyers are......and won;t look in the mirror.....to see where the problem is...anything but understand the goose is cooked..there are so many signs of downward pressure...perfect storm doesnt cover it......but most sellers don't understand jack....the knowledge on this forum is light yers from where your average vendors head is at

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Here's another

 

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/48209195

 

9th Apr 2019 £799,999 Price reduced by £50,001
15th Feb 2019 £850,000 Price reduced by £49,999
30th Aug 2018 £899,999 Price reduced by £100,000
28th Aug 2018 £999,999 Price reduced by £150,001
2nd Jul 2018 £1,150,000

 

 

£1,400 sq/ft was kiteflying, now it's £1,000 and that would have worked two years ago but not any more.

It looks ex rental - those voids much be hurting.

But that nice man from Foxton's said I'd get it no problem!

 

Edited by Bankside

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3 hours ago, Bankside said:

Here's another

 

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/48209195

 

9th Apr 2019 £799,999 Price reduced by £50,001
15th Feb 2019 £850,000 Price reduced by £49,999
30th Aug 2018 £899,999 Price reduced by £100,000
28th Aug 2018 £999,999 Price reduced by £150,001
2nd Jul 2018 £1,150,000

 

 

£1,400 sq/ft was kiteflying, now it's £1,000 and that would have worked two years ago but not any more.

It looks ex rental - those voids much be hurting.

But that nice man from Foxton's said I'd get it no problem!

 

That's a classic! Must be painful as reality bites.

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On 4/14/2019 at 12:39 PM, spyguy said:

No.

Foreign captial, in companies or real estate, or anything is pretty much non existent in Japan.

 

so as the funny money dries up in London this should make our crash even happen faster than Japan if they never even had that kind of rocket fuel ?

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On 4/14/2019 at 12:47 PM, spyguy said:

That was pretty standard.

 

not in the 70's the houses around the corner had floorboards but the builder was running out of money so changed the spec....eventually went bust....chipboard is the nastiest thing....squeaks..groans and if it gets wet...well pour milk on weetabix and you get the same result

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On 4/14/2019 at 9:03 PM, PeanutButter said:

Safe to conclude then that any surface parallels between their market (and crash) and ours are false. 

makes ours more vulnerable i would say we had that kind of accelerant they didnt....when that goes ? Just a faster type of turning japanese ?

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17 hours ago, Bankside said:

Here's another

 

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/48209195

 

9th Apr 2019 £799,999 Price reduced by £50,001
15th Feb 2019 £850,000 Price reduced by £49,999
30th Aug 2018 £899,999 Price reduced by £100,000
28th Aug 2018 £999,999 Price reduced by £150,001
2nd Jul 2018 £1,150,000

 

 

£1,400 sq/ft was kiteflying, now it's £1,000 and that would have worked two years ago but not any more.

It looks ex rental - those voids much be hurting.

But that nice man from Foxton's said I'd get it no problem!

 

how many angles do we need to see those 4 chairs and a table from and the bed and the kitchen....because thats all there is for nealry a million quid and a leasehold...no thanks

In a severe correction ...can you imagine what that property could go down to ?  To buy that what kind of money do you need to bea earning....and if you earn that kind of money ..is that what you aspire to ....i wouldnt be excited by that for 100k

Edited by Spindler

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3 hours ago, Spindler said:

how many angles do we need to see those 4 chairs and a table from and the bed and the kitchen....because thats all there is for nealry a million quid and a leasehold...no thanks

In a severe correction ...can you imagine what that property could go down to ?  To buy that what kind of money do you need to bea earning....and if you earn that kind of money ..is that what you aspire to ....i wouldnt be excited by that for 100k

That's actually really big for for two bed flat in London.

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Quote

 

Already got a mortgage

If you already have a mortgage the impact of the RMR will be minimal for now, it will only impact you if you try to extend your borrowing.

However, for those who have recently agreed a mortgage in principle the rules coming into effect could mean you have to restart your mortgage application.

 

 

From: https://www.uswitch.com/mortgages/guides/mortgage-market-review/

Probably adding to the number of sales falling through and when those fixed mortgages at 2% people have been taking come up for renewal in 5 years, it will be a bloodbath. Especially if rates are higher (hint: they will be).

 

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On ‎22‎/‎04‎/‎2019 at 11:01, Bankside said:

Here's another

 

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/48209195

 

9th Apr 2019 £799,999 Price reduced by £50,001
15th Feb 2019 £850,000 Price reduced by £49,999
30th Aug 2018 £899,999 Price reduced by £100,000
28th Aug 2018 £999,999 Price reduced by £150,001
2nd Jul 2018 £1,150,000

 

 

£1,400 sq/ft was kiteflying, now it's £1,000 and that would have worked two years ago but not any more.

It looks ex rental - those voids much be hurting.

But that nice man from Foxton's said I'd get it no problem!

 

That's a grim flat.

Click on the market stats link..and it reveals...

Sale activity

Average estimated value for a flat in N1:

  • £617,722
  • Price decrease

  • -£48,053
  • (-7.218%)
  • Over the last 12 months

 

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Street I watch in London. 2 bed terrace

Sale fell though at 560k. Currently on with several agents at 550k.

4th Jan 2019£549,500 Price reduced by £450
17th Dec 2018£549,950 Price increased by £20,000
20th Nov 2018£529,950 Price reduced by £20,000
7th Nov 2018£549,950 Price reduced by £15,000
3rd Sep 2018£564,950 Price reduced by £25,000
24th Aug 2018£589,950 Price reduced by £35,000
15th Aug 2018£624,950 First listed
22nd Jun 2012£329,950 Last sold

 

Neighbours are having a punt now. Guess what they put house on at - bearing in mind the other IDENTICAL house that hasn't sold? 

610k

*eyeroll*

2 weeks later and they've seen the light, down to 590k now. 

 

 

Edited by PeanutButter

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Are there many drops coming out of London? I’m hearing talk that it’s a total bloodbath in London - the numbers I heard were closer to 10% off to get viewers!  (Though there were such strong rises in prior years guess i shouldn’t be shocked at 10% falls in a year)

Edited by Ash4781

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23 hours ago, This time said:

That's actually really big for for two bed flat in London.

Cut the Price and They Will Come: New House Prices Drop to December 2014 Level 

This in the US but how long(think already started) before developers start repricing down to shift the stock to the dismay of those who already purchased for top whack.....i can see some articles on the "bought off planeers" wanting to escape the contracts they signed....we have been here before and not so long ago...

They said 90% sold... the liars etc etc ...you knw the script 😉

Edited by Spindler

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On 22/04/2019 at 14:59, Trump Invective said:

That's a classic! Must be painful as reality bites.

The more painful bit is, only one flat has to drop in a block, times that by all the flats in the block and you get your real total reductions....

Only the service and obliged to pay add-ons on the increase.;)

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34 minutes ago, winkie said:

The more painful bit is, only one flat has to drop in a block, times that by all the flats in the block and you get your real total reductions....

Only the service and obliged to pay add-ons on the increase.;)

Those kite flyers that take their house off the market when they dont get the fantasy price do not realise all price discovery is at the margin...so when someone has to sell or is much more pragmatic it sets the benchmark...of course you can refuse to sell but it only takes those that do in the same road with a similar house or even in the next few roads to basically stick a price tag on your house and there aint nothing you can do about it.....this must be even worse for flat "leaseholders" as being uniform....2/3 bed flat same sq footage..etc...they are even more easily benchmarked...houses differ in the same street very often but the effect is still there...and if your neighbour sells the exact same house thats your point in time...if the market is dropping it sets a high benchmark you will then struggle to get anywhere near.....all the same rules as on the way up apply on the way down..just in reverse..

 

So if we have FOMO on the way up ? ....FOLO on the way down...fear of losing out....nobody likes their investment to go negative.....

Edited by Spindler

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Kite flying itself isn't an intrinsically bad. If there's some willing to pay 250k if you put your house on at 200k you'll never know if you could get more. Dropping from higher value means you will find the true 'value'.

I suspect the way chains form will be affected too in an falling market as there will be more inclination to sell before yours before buying on another.

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