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warrior88

Seeing is believing - February 2019

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After being repeatedly told by everyone,  prices cant really fall - it was time for me to do a bit of my own research and to believe in HPC again.

I researched online data and land registry sales and did my own analysis limited only to London sales in February 2019 (with the current data available). There are hundred of sales in February in London where people have made huge gains but there are some losing money as well (Hurray).

 

See table below for nominal losses - I have left out some sale which I did not feel were commercial sales at fair value.

 

Date Address Price Sold Previous Price Loss Loss Percentage
22/02/2019  Flat 1, 126 Brondesbury Villas, London, NW6 6AE £715,000 £800,000 £85,000 10.63%
22/02/2019 27 Mablethorpe Road, London, SW6 6AQ £1,250,000 £1,500,000 £250,000 16.67%
22/02/2019 6, Copper Court, 2, Essex Wharf, London, E5 9QG £425,000 £460,000 £35,000 7.61%
22/02/2019 5 Wolseley Road, Hornsey, London, N8 8RR £617,000 £740,000 £123,000 16.62%
22/02/2019 Flat 13, Ossel Court, 13, Telegraph Avenue, London, SE10 0TE £507,500 £535,000  £27,500 5.14%
22/02/2019 3, 1 Ennismore Gardens, London, SW7 1NL £3,294,000 £3,500,000 £206,000 5.89%
22/02/2019 Flat 33, Melrose Apartments, 6, Winchester Road, London, NW3 3NT £1,338,000 £1,471,066  £133,066 9.05%
22/02/2019 49 William Barefoot Drive, London, SE9 3JD £268,000 £269,995 £1,995 0.74%
22/02/2019 Flat 8, Hall Place, 5 - 7, Urswick Road, London, E9 6EG £565,000 £570,000 £5,000 0.88%
19/02/2019 74a Elm Park, London, SW2 2UB £449,000 £475,000 £26,000 5.47%
18/02/2019 57b Cleveland Road, London, N1 3ES £825,000 £895,000 £70,000 7.82%
18/02/2019 Flat 17, Arrandene Apartments, Silverworks Close, London, NW9 0FA £308,000 £347,000  £39,000 11.24%
15/02/2019 Flat 2, 78 Greenham Road, London, N10 1LP £560,000 £575,000 £15,000 2.61%
15/02/2019 Flat, 66b Glengall Road, London, SE15 6NH £315,000 £320,000 £5,000 1.56%
15/02/2019 Flat 2, 16 Glenluce Road, London, SE3 7SB £190,429 £325,000 £134,571 41.41%
15/02/2019 Flat 138, 3 Cornell Square, London, SW8 2ES £365,000 £393,000 £28,000 7.12%
15/02/2019 158 Chiswick Village, London, W4 3DG £492,050 £500,000 £7,950 1.59%
15/02/2019 Apartment 38, 21 Young Street, London, W8 5EH £2,320,000 £2,350,000 £30,000 1.28%
14/02/2019 Flat 387, Neutron Tower, 6, Blackwall Way, London, E14 9GT £340,000 £351,500 £11,500 3.27%
14/02/2019 22, Commodore House, 3, Schooner Road, London, E16 2PT £659,000 £695,000 £36,000 5.18%
13/02/2019 Flat, 41a Casewick Road, London, SE27 0TB £345,000 £375,000 £30,000 8.00%
12/02/2019 4 Laverton Place, London, SW5 0HJ £2,900,000 £3,300,000 £400,000 12.12%
12/02/2019 Flat 60, 23 Maud Street, London, E16 1YU £370,000 £378,000  £8,000 2.12%
11/02/2019 146a Blythe Road, London, W14 0HD £600,000 £640,000 £40,000 6.25%
08/02/2019 7 Goodman Road, London, E10 6JG £170,000 £243,000 £73,000 30.04%
08/02/2019 Flat 19, Presidents Quay House, 72, St Katharines Way, London, E1W 1UF £210,000 £420,000 £210,000 50.00%
08/02/2019 Flat 6, 17 Wilmer Place, London, N16 0BJ £388,650 £397,600 £8,950 2.25%
08/02/2019 31c Cheverton Road, London, N19 3BB £484,500 £500,000 £15,500 3.10%
08/02/2019 Flat 7, 73 Anerley Road, London, SE20 8DQ £372,500 £382,500 £10,000 2.61%
08/02/2019 Flat 2, 235 Upper Richmond Road, London, SW15 6SN £870,000 £877,050 £7,050 0.80%
08/02/2019 Flat 1, 35 Fairmount Road, London, SW2 2BJ £469,000 £500,000 £31,000 6.20%
08/02/2019 Flat 2, 35 Evelyn Gardens, London, SW7 3BJ £3,075,000 £3,300,000 £225,000 6.82%
08/02/2019 49 Ashfield Road, London, W3 7JF £960,000 £995,000 £35,000 3.52%
08/02/2019 Flat 73, Sir Francis Drake Court, 43 - 45, Banning Street, London, SE10 0FF £130,000 £132,500 £2,500 1.89%
08/02/2019 Flat 1, 12 The Paragon, London, SE3 0NZ £1,069,666 £1,070,000 £334 0.03%
07/02/2019 First And Second Floor Flat, 28 Woodhurst Road, London, W3 6SP £650,000 £769,950 £119,950 15.58%
06/02/2019 43 Gower Road, London, E7 9NF £220,000 £250,000 £30,000 12.00%
06/02/2019 Flat 6, 48 Lowndes Square, London, SW1X 9JX £1,378,000 £1,785,000  £407,000 22.80%
04/02/2019 Apartment 1203, 1 Tidal Basin Road, London, E16 1US £390,000 £390,510  £510 0.13%
04/02/2019 Flat A, 3 Haldon Road, London, SW18 1QD £550,000 £670,000 £120,000 17.91%
04/02/2019 192 Barcombe Avenue, Streatham Hill, London, SW2 3BD £875,000 £893,750 £18,750 2.10%
04/02/2019 Flat 12, 29, Macaulay Road, London, SW4 0QP £237,500 £675,000 £437,500 64.81%
01/02/2019 69b East Road, London, E15 3QS £340,000 £350,000 £10,000 2.86%
01/02/2019 124, Liner House, 16, Admiralty Avenue, London, E16 2SJ £974,000 £980,000 £6,000 0.61%
01/02/2019 Flat B, 484 Kingsland Road, London, E8 4AE £348,000 £360,000 £12,000 3.33%
01/02/2019 Flat 11, 17 Canalside Square, London, N1 7FP £650,000 £660,000  £10,000 1.52%
01/02/2019 Flat 10, Nelson Mandela House, 124, Cazenove Road, London, N16 6AJ £350,000 £362,500 £12,500 3.45%
01/02/2019 Flat 6, The Winchester, 206, Archway Road, London, N6 5BA £595,000 £665,000  £70,000 10.53%
01/02/2019 141f Rotherhithe Street, London, SE16 5QT £360,986 £370,000 £9,014 2.44%
01/02/2019 6d Hamlet Road, London, SE19 2AW £358,500 £370,500 £12,000 3.24%
01/02/2019 Flat 18, Roebuck House, 89, Roehampton Lane, London, SW15 5FN £495,000 £513,000 £18,000 3.51%
01/02/2019 Flat A, 191 Lyham Road, London, SW2 5PY £525,000 £540,000 £15,000 2.78%
01/02/2019 Flat 592, Bromyard House, Bromyard Avenue, London, W3 7FG £108,750 £172,534 £63,784 36.97%
Edited by warrior88
Correcting dates

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Nice.

A few de minimis falls in there (£660k to £650k hardly makes that affordable to the average punter!) but also some much chunkier ones.

The idea that prices "can't fall" always baffles me when there is clear evidence of numerous times in the past when they have.

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21 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Nice.

A few de minimis falls in there (£660k to £650k hardly makes that affordable to the average punter!) but also some much chunkier ones.

The idea that prices "can't fall" always baffles me when there is clear evidence of numerous times in the past when they have.

Yes fair enough but I can see the trend in London now. Of these 53 sales, the average loss was £70,527 or 9.51%.

The sales also don't account for inflation so in real terms the losses are much greater.

The whole point is we would not have seen this couple of years ago - so the prices are now moving in the right direction.

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Some like this one are odd

Quote
08/02/2019 Flat 19, Presidents Quay House, 72, St Katharines Way, London, E1W 1UF £210,000 £420,000 £210,000 50.00%

Looks more like someone buying a share of the property

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24 minutes ago, Freki said:

Some like this one are odd

Looks more like someone buying a share of the property

Possibly, there were few others that I excluded where the loss was 90% or more.

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Just now, Freezer? Best place for it said:

Still,  with record employment and all the props - something must be wrong.

Record employment......what is that?;)

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8 minutes ago, winkie said:

Record employment......what is that?;)

This is London, so something about vintage music shops. "pre-loved"

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51 minutes ago, Freki said:

Some like this one are odd

Looks more like someone buying a share of the property

Lease extension or freehold purchase 

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4 hours ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

Still,  with record employment and all the props - something must be wrong.

As the marginal buyer at the top the loss of a chunk of Chinese Money is weaving the same magic as New York, Sydney etc etc

I saw a great graph which plotted the London differential in an article discussing why London wages do not pay the amount that creates this differential.

normally 1.5 - 2 x the "North"

This peak circa 3 x 

If this corrects back we could be looking at 20-30% off just down to foreign buyers and BTL changes (with still more changes to come).

In another post on here they quoted a source re money laundering and how clamping down on it would have a material effect on the London property market ergo a % slice of the market has now gone.

It does feel like something has happened  here in my area over the last few weeks maybe the winter has come from London.

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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Use www.houseprices.io to see more detail and the date of last transaction. For example 27 Maplethorpe Road price of £1.5m was set in Nov 2015.

Thanks for above info but really date of last transaction is needed to make sense of it. I expect most or all of your examples above previous transaction was in last 3 years.

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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