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PeanutButter

Global warming could create 'greater migratory pressure from Africa'

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I'm amazed this got reported at all - but it did drop very quickly off the main page :D

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/11/expect-even-greater-migration-from-africa-says-attenborough-imf-global-warming

 

Quote

 

David Attenborough uses IMF speech to warn of human consequences of inaction on climate change

Europe can expect even greater migratory pressure from Africa unless action is taken to prevent global warming, Sir David Attenborough has said in a strongly worded warning to policymakers that time is running out to save the natural world from extinction.

Speaking at the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, the broadcaster and environmentalist said that on current trends parts of the world would soon become uninhabitable and populations would be be forced to move.

Attenborough, 92, said it was vital that countries met their commitments made in the 2015 Paris climate agreement to reduce carbon emissions because time was fast running out for the planet.

Asked by the IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, whether there was a link between migration and climate change, Attenborough said: “It is happening in Europe. People are coming from Africa because they can’t live where they are.”

He said migration pressures would become more acute as temperatures continued to rise because more parts of the world would become uninhabitable.

Attenborough, who was publicising the Netflix series Our Planet, said: “I find it hard to exaggerate the peril. This is the new extinction and we are half way through it. We are in terrible, terrible trouble and the longer we wait to do something about it the worse it is going to get.”

Noting that “70% of bird species have gone”, he said: “We have time now, 10 years, perhaps 20 years, to do something about it. The longer we leave it the more difficult it is going to be and if we leave it too long we won’t be able to do something about it and the natural system will collapse.”

Attenborough likened the damage being caused to the natural world to an investor eating into capital: “It’s fine to take a profit but you wouldn’t be so silly as to eat into capital. But that’s what we are doing with the natural world all the time.”

Safeguarding the future of the planet meant that governments may need to risk the wrath of voters by ending subsidies for fossil fuels and imposing carbon taxes.

“We are supporting and subsidising the very things that are damaging our planet. The natural world is so delicate. It needs all the protection it can get. Sometimes that means governments have to take decisions that are painful and cost money.

“Carbon-based fuel is the source of many of our problems and we are subsidising that.”

 

 

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Another bit I dislike in that - “Carbon-based fuel is the source of many of our problems and we are subsidising that.” Nope, too many people and thus too rapid a use of them is the problem. The amount of fuel used is an effect of a problem, not a cause. Tinkering with the symptoms is, at most, only of any use at all as a short-term measure if it goes hand in hand with tackling the underlying problem of overpopulation.

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23 hours ago, Riedquat said:

Tinkering with the symptoms is, at most, only of any use at all as a short-term measure if it goes hand in hand with tackling the underlying problem of overpopulation.

OK, so I agree that we are swimming against the tide while the Earth's population is growing. It will inevitably peak at about 11bn in 2070. However, there's only one way to minimise this peak population and that is to significantly increase living standards in some of the poorest parts of the world (with the highest birth rates) particularly Sub-Saharan Africa. If we want to tackle population growth we should be promoting women's education and healthcare. Simply put - people have fewer children when their economic circumstances, education and life expectancy improve.

In the meantime, it's vital we urgently get our lifestyles onto a much more sustainable basis. Air pollution in London kills about 9000 a year, so it's not as if we don't have a very clear self-interest in taking action. 

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My understanding is that its happening already.  Water shortages in the Middle East have been one of the drivers of political instability for many years.  Migration from poorer and hotter parts of the Planet is one of the areas that the left and Brexiters have completely failed to grasp; migration from the EU has never really been a problem in the UK.  There will be many reasons why a relatively temperate region like Northern Europe will become more attractive over the next 40+ years.

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I suspect it got printed as got 'climate change' in the title and that's a standard Guardian article theme that's published without any obvious critical eye from the editors to its contents.🙄

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On 13/04/2019 at 12:36, Orsino said:

OK, so I agree that we are swimming against the tide while the Earth's population is growing. It will inevitably peak at about 11bn in 2070. However, there's only one way to minimise this peak population and that is to significantly increase living standards in some of the poorest parts of the world (with the highest birth rates) particularly Sub-Saharan Africa. If we want to tackle population growth we should be promoting women's education and healthcare. Simply put - people have fewer children when their economic circumstances, education and life expectancy improve.

In the meantime, it's vital we urgently get our lifestyles onto a much more sustainable basis. Air pollution in London kills about 9000 a year, so it's not as if we don't have a very clear self-interest in taking action. 

Meanwhile Trump is busy cutting these very schemes, and promoting abstinence based programmes overseas. The religious right has taken charge and I fully expect Roe Wade to be overturned once he starts his second term. This from a country that allows babies to be bought and sold like pets. 

He wouldn't need to build a wall if the would-be migrants could live safely and well in their own countries. But when subsistence farming is destroyed by climate chaos - leaving is the only option. 

 

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Migration, as any respectable bigot will tell you, is caused by economic migrants seeking a better life, not those looking for somewhere cooler to live away from the ravages of 'anthropogenic climate change'  as it is now to be referred to.

 

Personally I blame smartphone services, and put it down to many around the world looking at the affluence of the developed world, then looking at the poverty in their part of the world, and simply saying that they ain't gonna live on a dollar a day and a bowl of rice..._

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On 18/04/2019 at 13:58, DiggerUK said:

Personally I blame smartphone services, and put it down to many around the world looking at the affluence of the developed world, then looking at the poverty in their part of the world, and simply saying that they ain't gonna live on a dollar a day and a bowl of rice..._

I believe that this is partly the problem. I used to work as a project manager and for a low budget project, I hired a developer from the Ivory Coast. He would speak to me how he wanted to move the UK. He saw online how much he could earn. After I explained PAYE and the cost of housing he decided he was better off where he was. 

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How many of the issues in poorer parts of the world are really to do with social structure and organisation? I.e. what sort of standard of living is actually possible with the level of wealth they've got, and are they anywhere near it? Certainly in wealthy parts of the world we're nowhere near it (eveyone should be in absolute idle luxury in the UK by now by that measure).

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On 23/04/2019 at 13:26, Riedquat said:

Certainly in wealthy parts of the world we're nowhere near it (eveyone should be in absolute idle luxury in the UK by now by that measure).

Our wealth is relative and us being shackled to superfluous jobs or struggling with the extinction of the post-WWII economic prosperity and increasingly cramped, overpriced houses is down to bad governance (with the odd geography and mostly infinitely terrible or absent governance in Sub-Saharan Africa being its issues).

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Quite. It's not all about wealth. It's grown massively in the last 40 years but life was perfectly fine then, indeed I'd prefer living then to now. Admittedly not the greatest example because that was a pretty sh1tty time, also thanks to bad politics - I'd still take my chances though, a better starting point once the short-term downs had worked out, and the country would still be a lot less wealthy once they had done.

How much the same is true for poor countries I'm not sure although terrible mismanagement of their resources is a huge problem.

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On 26/04/2019 at 21:00, chronyx said:

Ah the famous wheat of Mount Tabor. lol 

As for Algeria: https://www.foodbusinessafrica.com/2018/10/23/algerias-my2018-19-grain-production-increased-74-to-reach-6-05-mmt/

Quote

ALGERIA – Algeria’s (Marketing Year) MY2018/19 cereals production reached 6.05 million metric tonnes, a 74.4% increase compared to last year’s 3.47MMT, according to figures from the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), quoted in USDA’s September GAIN report.

The Ministry attributed the production level to favourable climatic conditions as well as government support through loans, seeds, equipment and other technical support for crops.

It was also helped by adequate rainfall as most of the grain production areas benefited from good precipitations, enabling good crop conditions.

Efforts by government to increase yields have proved productive given that cereal yields have increased from 0.8 MT/ha in the 1980’s to 1.2 MT/ha in 2000 to 1.9 in 2017.

This was helped by increased use of locally produced certified seeds for all grains as well as increased use of inputs, especially fertilizers.

Total wheat production for the period is estimated at 3.940 MMT that is, 3.15 MMT for durum and 790,000 MT for bread wheat while barley production stood at 1.950MMT.

Wheat imports for the year 2017/18 were revised upwards due to low production and for the current year, this is expected to fall to 8.2 MMT with barley imports estimated 522,000 MT for MY2017/2018.

Wheat, barley and oat production in Algeria has increased in the last nine years but still falls short of the 8 million tons needed for domestic consumption.

 

Hardly becoming the bread basket of Africa, meanwhile:

Quote

TUNIS - Algeria’s population has been growing at one of the world’s highest rates, giving its leaders reasons for concern.

Rapid Algerian population growth, which counters trends of slower increases in neighbouring Morocco and Tunisia, could test Algiers’ capacity for economic and social change while the challenges of poverty and youth unemployment are mounting.

Algeria’s population would reach 72.4 million in 2050 against about 42 million currently if the country’s fertility rate of 3.5 children per woman remains steady, the Algerian Health Ministry said.

“Since the year 2000, Algeria is experiencing a demographic dynamic of higher growth after having cut population growth by almost half in the 1985-2000 period,” the ministry said. “The additional population fell to 589,000 people in 2000 from 885,000 people in 1985,” it said.

This decline in population growth until 2000 was similar to trends in Tunisia and Morocco as expanding economies depended less on farming (in which families need more manpower) and as more women acceded to higher education, putting off marriage and giving birth to children.

Algeria broke with this transition when “the fertility rate jumped from 2.4 children per woman in 2000 to 3.1 children in 2017,” the Health Ministry said. “Since 2000, population growth continued rising to exceed the level of 1 million births in 2014 and reached 1.067 million in 2016 and 1.06 in 2017.”

The ministry described Algeria’s population growth as “one of the highest rates in the world.”

The ministry said the government looks to expand the family-planning programme in “the aim of helping to reach a balance between population growth and economic growth.”

It said it would increase the number of family-planning centres and include them in the overall healthcare system.

The government aims at cutting the fertility rate from 3.1 births per woman to 2.1 in 2050 when Algeria’s population would total 62 million instead of 72.4 million if the fertility rate remains higher, the Health Ministry added.

“The reduction of the reproduction rate will allow the government to cut spending in health and education and other fields and allow the citizens to enjoy more autonomy and a more prosperous life,” it said.

A higher population growth is seen by political analysts as adding to the “basics of power” and buttressing Algeria’s ambitions to be the leading power in the Maghreb and the sub-Sahara region.

https://thearabweekly.com/algeria-struggles-keep-rapid-population-growth-and-own-ambitions

Edit to add ^^^ this brought us back to topic rather well. 

 

Sahara 10% larger than 10 years ago

https://www.livescience.com/62168-sahara-desert-expanding.html

Climate zones shifting

https://e360.yale.edu/features/redrawing-the-map-how-the-worlds-climate-zones-are-shifting

Record flooding in midwest

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47613876

Record floods and record heat in Australia

https://www.voanews.com/a/in-australia-record-floods-and-record-heat/4769722.html

Arable crop yields down

https://www.fginsight.com/news/news/survey-shows-2018-yields-down-for-nearly-all-arable-crops-76450

European crop yields down

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2806/prolonged-hot-dry-conditions-affect-european-crop-prices/

 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said:

You shouldn't blame yourself for it though. It will just eat away at you.

On the contrary, I'm composing a telegram of congratulations to Mount Tabor as we speak. 

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14 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

On the contrary, I'm composing a telegram of congratulations to Mount Tabor as we speak. 

Include the Chinese for building "railways to nowhere" in Africa that are now greening.

General pollution, monoculture intensive farming and excess fertilizer ruining the soil concerns me far more than a gas that plants breathe.

We were lied to about house prices, we're lied to about CO2.

1552951576762.thumb.png.5c91d1a5aa2bd6c7438b3daaa57145ec.png

 

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