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@ukpropertylion on twitter reporting rightmove current asking prices are down -3% year on year and down -6% from a summer 2018 peak.

 

Next release July. 

 

 

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Interesting signal of sentiment .... especially given how the economy is allegedly so 'good' and with so many crutches for the housing market in place.

Could we have hit debt saturation on behalf of the buying public?   I guess it's time for the government to intervene again with more taxpayer funded cheap loans to keep that lovely debt wagon rolling.

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What pisses me off is that these small percentage figures are celebrated, but in real terms it means very little to those wanting to buy. Of course it is a step in the right direction, but it seems that this tiny step has taken a year, and another step might take just as long. While interest rates stay low the type of forced sale

A house that has undeservingly gone up in value to £450,000 in the last boom is still almost as bad value and not a deal at £425,000.

There is also much to be said for real life. If prices keep declining there has to be a point where I will be forced to buy, nobody knows where the bottom will be.

So for me, I think that point might be about 20%-30% off peak. Admittedly this does not look like happening. There have been places which have seen those type of reductions but only because their prices were kite-flying to begin with.

Even if we did see those type of reductions, homes in the areas I am looking at would still be markedly above what they were even as late as 2012, and I think I would be beaten to the market by those whose bottle would go at smaller discounts.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, simon2 said:

What pisses me off is that these small percentage figures are celebrated, but in real terms it means very little to those wanting to buy. Of course it is a step in the right direction, but it seems that this tiny step has taken a year, and another step might take just as long. While interest rates stay low the type of forced sale

A house that has undeservingly gone up in value to £450,000 in the last boom is still almost as bad value and not a deal at £425,000.

There is also much to be said for real life. If prices keep declining there has to be a point where I will be forced to buy, nobody knows where the bottom will be.

So for me, I think that point might be about 20%-30% off peak. Admittedly this does not look like happening. There have been places which have seen those type of reductions but only because their prices were kite-flying to begin with.

Even if we did see those type of reductions, homes in the areas I am looking at would still be markedly above what they were even as late as 2012, and I think I would be beaten to the market by those whose bottle would go at smaller discounts.

 

 

i don;t think these are small percentages we are talking in reality ..a flat i mention in se sale going throuh 305k now 235.....i doubt a 450k house is gettig sold at 425k...i read on wolf street a poster saying in toronto the quoted small percentages are not realistic...real world already talking 20-25%actualy to sell unless its so blooming marvellous and an anonomoly ...for there and here we are already talking 15/20 percent from fanatsy valuations...the ****holes prob even worse....i had aconv last night with good friends.....not enough houses...i said its to do with credit and were maxed...out showed an analogy of buying one gys plate for a fiver borrowed from the other mate....now do it again and tell me you wont lend me a fiver sayin 3 quid....other mate eiter keeps the plate or takes the 3 quid thats how it works.....price discovery is on the margins.....most homes are bought with credit...as the market falls credit becomes tighter it becomes sel fulfilling....this is where we are now....sentiment is already changing thats also a powerful factor ...price falls tightening credit....negative sentiment...keep the faith simon its the end game ...forget the figues from VI's and medi....this market turned end of 2015 and the next few years is going to be brutal for those with big loans on property irrespective of if rates remain low...if they rise calamity....all pyramid scheme all bubbles correct....we know its a bubble...and moron economists havent even seen its a bubble...as for the not enough houses don't make me laugh i'm not even sure thats true...regardless this market is going to fall worse than the 90's...housing from here is going to be a spectacular bad investment...lready the htb mugs areutterly ******* where do you think they'll be as the falls gather pace.....those horrible full recourse mortgages they have(and dont know it) plus HTB are going to sink them....the HTB will end up prob written off and that wont even save them

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I tend to agree with Spindler on this - if Rightmove say its down a few percent, its probably much further down than that at the negotiation point.  As this gathers pace we should start to see some headline making falls.

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Feels very eerie out there.

A lot of properties I looked at and was subsequently outbid on  have not appeared on the land registry for what seems like 6 months + .

Brexit has now overrun into the peak selling period.

If your holding off selling now everyone knows the summer is crap you could miss this time before the summer holidays where the families will pay xx% more to make sure the kids are all moved over and places are applied for before the new term.

You miss this period > then the summer lul > October more delay/no deal/etc 

Whats the point just get it listed and sold as it may not get better.

 

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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On 13/04/2019 at 12:57, Spindler said:

i don;t think these are small percentages we are talking in reality ..a flat i mention in se sale going throuh 305k now 235.....i doubt a 450k house is gettig sold at 425k...i read on wolf street a poster saying in toronto the quoted small percentages are not realistic...real world already talking 20-25%actualy to sell unless its so blooming marvellous and an anonomoly ...for there and here we are already talking 15/20 percent from fanatsy valuations...the ****holes prob even worse....i had aconv last night with good friends.....not enough houses...i said its to do with credit and were maxed...out showed an analogy of buying one gys plate for a fiver borrowed from the other mate....now do it again and tell me you wont lend me a fiver sayin 3 quid....other mate eiter keeps the plate or takes the 3 quid thats how it works.....price discovery is on the margins.....most homes are bought with credit...as the market falls credit becomes tighter it becomes sel fulfilling....this is where we are now....sentiment is already changing thats also a powerful factor ...price falls tightening credit....negative sentiment...keep the faith simon its the end game ...forget the figues from VI's and medi....this market turned end of 2015 and the next few years is going to be brutal for those with big loans on property irrespective of if rates remain low...if they rise calamity....all pyramid scheme all bubbles correct....we know its a bubble...and moron economists havent even seen its a bubble...as for the not enough houses don't make me laugh i'm not even sure thats true...regardless this market is going to fall worse than the 90's...housing from here is going to be a spectacular bad investment...lready the htb mugs areutterly ******* where do you think they'll be as the falls gather pace.....those horrible full recourse mortgages they have(and dont know it) plus HTB are going to sink them....the HTB will end up prob written off and that wont even save them

100% agree. I think 2019 is going to be a brutal year for the housing market....

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On 12/04/2019 at 10:01, TheCountOfNowhere said:

@ukpropertylion on twitter reporting rightmove current asking prices are down -3% year on year and down -6% from a summer 2018 peak.

 

Next release July. 

 

 

Asking prices reflect the sentiment of people who might sell their house. Sale prices (which are some 30% lower) reflect reality, i.e. those who DO sell their house.

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so for a struggling to survive Estate Agent......now the hard times are here....people who "might" sell their house for a "unicorn" price are just going to cost the EA time and money.....that "we're not giving it away" mantra is going to be hard to overcome...

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7 hours ago, 2rocketman said:

100% agree. I think 2019 is going to be a brutal year for the housing market....

We're overdue a recession and a financial crash. If I were buying I'd hold off now - more than any time in the last ten years.

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On 13/04/2019 at 12:26, simon2 said:

What pisses me off is that these small percentage figures are celebrated, but in real terms it means very little to those wanting to buy.

I suspect that you, like many people, misinterpret a negative percentage as being the same as a positive percentage. Fall in prices have a bigger monetary amount but there is also the feedback effect causing further falls.

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Some real bargains out there at the moment, especially if you've got an appetite for renovation or extensions. 

Market is very quiet and the chancers seem to have gone to ground so the decent projects in good locations can be haggled hard. 

In my view the Brexit delay has only added to the downside for the market but the moment something is ironed out and there's certainty the wind will hit the sails again, just like it was taken from them in 2016.

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3 minutes ago, adarmo said:

Some real bargains out there at the moment, especially if you've got an appetite for renovation or extensions. 

Market is very quiet and the chancers seem to have gone to ground so the decent projects in good locations can be haggled hard. 

In my view the Brexit delay has only added to the downside for the market but the moment something is ironed out and there's certainty the wind will hit the sails again, just like it was taken from them in 2016.

so it's all brexit is it ? I beg to differ this started end 2015/beginning 2016....brexit the snakeoil for all ills....if you think there is wind to blow prices up with all the downward pressure ...you're crazy or a VI with rose tinted goggles....its called investment bias

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Just now, Spindler said:

so it's all brexit is it ? I beg to differ this started end 2015/beginning 2016....brexit the snakeoil for all ills....if you think there is wind to blow prices up with all the downward pressure ...you're crazy or a VI with rose tinted goggles....its called investment bias

this is just the dead calm before the perfect storm...those bargains you mention slight dips from crazy peak prices are not bargains to e....i have actually seen someone renovate a property end 2007 through 2008....all value added wiped out....months of hard work for negative returns

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13 minutes ago, Spindler said:

so it's all brexit is it ? I beg to differ this started end 2015/beginning 2016....brexit the snakeoil for all ills....if you think there is wind to blow prices up with all the downward pressure ...you're crazy or a VI with rose tinted goggles....its called investment bias

Did you think the same in 2018, and 2017, and 2016.....?

Ad hom, counter with reason please. In this region the referendum result was like a switch being thrown. 

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12 minutes ago, Spindler said:

this is just the dead calm before the perfect storm...those bargains you mention slight dips from crazy peak prices are not bargains to e....i have actually seen someone renovate a property end 2007 through 2008....all value added wiped out....months of hard work for negative returns

 Perfect storm of what? Many are arguing we are already in it. The btl regulation is wonderful to see but it is finally possible to make money in renovations because the message has got through to Hattie (or her husband Henry) there's no money it so you're not being out bid by cretins with no clue. 

Did you see the whole renovation? Interesting? Anecdotal only I'm afraid. You've got there an example of someone owning a property and presumably trying to add value to it while the biggest recession in 80 years struck! Question though, relative to other properties did his project do better? I.e. could he buy that place, work on it and then swap it for something better? A rising tide lifts all ships and a falling one lowers them all, but over several projects and several years you'll be mortgage free if you're smart.... in any market. 

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3 minutes ago, Spindler said:

wish for what you want all you like 😉

 Likewise lol. Oooo It's deffo this year isn't it. I've a feelin in me bones.

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7 hours ago, adarmo said:

Some real bargains out there at the moment, especially if you've got an appetite for renovation or extensions. 

Market is very quiet and the chancers seem to have gone to ground so the decent projects in good locations can be haggled hard. 

In my view the Brexit delay has only added to the downside for the market but the moment something is ironed out and there's certainty the wind will hit the sails again, just like it was taken from them in 2016.

In most cases only those who think they will gain from a renovation or extension will buy to eventually sell at a profit fairly pronto when the profit is no longer there.....there will always those who buy something of value but needs work because that is all they can afford to buy...they buy for the long-term to upgrade and improve as they go along if and when they can afford to.....why put work and effort into doing something unproductive when don't have to for a non existent short-term gain....... plenty of other ways of doing that?;)

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4 hours ago, winkie said:

In most cases only those who think they will gain from a renovation or extension will buy to eventually sell at a profit fairly pronto when the profit is no longer there.....there will always those who buy something of value but needs work because that is all they can afford to buy...they buy for the long-term to upgrade and improve as they go along if and when they can afford to.....why put work and effort into doing something unproductive when don't have to for a non existent short-term gain....... plenty of other ways of doing that?;)

I'm not sure I quite follow. You;re saying they will sell pronto when the profit is no longer there? That doesn't make sense. 

I would counter that if you buy to live in and can do a lot of the work yourself it is not unproductive. I know several people who really enjoy doing the work themselves and get to enjoy the fruits of that work until they sell. 

My view is not about what it's worth but what that property could have been swapped for before and after the work has been done. As I said before the aim is to end up mortgage free in a house I've designed and built. 

I recall having a very long debate with Venger about how the ideal minimal impact solution to all this is mild inflation with flat or slowly falling prices. Maybe we're seeing it, maybe we're on an exponential downward shift but it's funny to see people who have been banging on a about a crash for so long start to get excited over asking prices when for years those same people have been stating 'yeah but asking prices aren't sold prices'.

Incidentally (and off topic) I just walked through some new homes built a year or two ago. Cracks in the rendering already AND they're just starting the relief road that will go through the development. 

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12 hours ago, adarmo said:

Some real bargains out there at the moment, especially if you've got an appetite for renovation or extensions. 

Care to divulge 🤔

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11 hours ago, adarmo said:

I'm not sure I quite follow. You;re saying they will sell pronto when the profit is no longer there? That doesn't make sense. 

I would counter that if you buy to live in and can do a lot of the work yourself it is not unproductive. I know several people who really enjoy doing the work themselves and get to enjoy the fruits of that work until they sell. 

My view is not about what it's worth but what that property could have been swapped for before and after the work has been done. As I said before the aim is to end up mortgage free in a house I've designed and built. 

I recall having a very long debate with Venger about how the ideal minimal impact solution to all this is mild inflation with flat or slowly falling prices. Maybe we're seeing it, maybe we're on an exponential downward shift but it's funny to see people who have been banging on a about a crash for so long start to get excited over asking prices when for years those same people have been stating 'yeah but asking prices aren't sold prices'.

Incidentally (and off topic) I just walked through some new homes built a year or two ago. Cracks in the rendering already AND they're just starting the relief road that will go through the development. 

You won't follow it.......high SD, taxes and flat prices, lending practices, together with more people wanting to buy value will mean Flipping will not be so profitable, could turn out to be unprofitable.......more younger people will be buying to add value themselves, doing it themselves over time to enjoy longer term...... hopefully more will be buying a house as their home not a quick way to turn a profit in the future.;)

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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