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Competition: Brexit & House Prices

Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020  

239 members have voted

  1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

    • down 5% +
      112
    • down 2.5%
      49
    • Even
      38
    • up 2.5%
      22
    • up 5%
      18


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Ok. Time to put a stake in it. 

Let's look forward to June 2020 and including all the effects of Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now. 

Pick an option in the poll and don't forget to comment about your logic, reasoning or intuition. 

The most eloquent, polite and witty post will win a £20 Amazon gift card

 

Edited by HPC Pollster

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Down 5% +, this is because Brexit will create risk in lending, causing the banks to be more cautious.

 

Now, where my 20 quid?

Edited by No One

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I voted 'down 2.5%'  but I hope I'm wrong and it really goes down 5%+ . I imagine the government will pull something from their collective bottoms in an attempt to prop up the housing market as much as possible. It won't be as effective as the other props used in the last 8 years as the populous are starting to wake up to the sham of a market it is, hence down 2.5%.

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Prices are only going one way for the foreseeable future. US, Canada, Aus, U.K. its happing everywhere.

I was just reading how Manhattan real estate sales have fallen for sixth straight quarter — longest losing streak in 30 years. 

There is going to be a LOT of negative equity around.....

-20% over the next couple of years across the board imo on normal homes. 

If you have used help to buy or bought a new build on an estate you might as well just hand the keys back now...

 

Best,

2R

 

 

 

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Even.

Because transaction volumes are going to be so tiny that that each under-priced house that sells (any realistic BTL landlord on an exit before bankruptcy) will be statistically neutralised by an over-priced house that sells (insane BOMAD-deposit-backed buyers with 35+ year dual-income mortgage).

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I said down 5%, it depends on when the "snap" general election will be. 

I think Corbyn will target the rental votes as well as the youth saying the old, elite has destroyes the country and he'll put it back on track. First he'll trash the housing market to show he's a man of his word, but also giving a kicking to the people against him with property. And he'll blame Brexit and the Tories for having to do so

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2RocketMan is on the money...i can't believe some posters are talki g about 5 or 2.5 % and 2020 in the same sentence these are VI stats from the media and indices like halifax and nationwide....they are rubbish....i used to sell index data in the city ad i can tell you it's a lot more reliable than the **** put out by the likes of nationwide and it is also much more highly overseen not the **** they peddle. Here's an example for the south east....mate has a 2 bed leasehold near a station near the river...good area average town...the terms of the lease are old style and no burden...its in good order and has 2 large bedrooms....started at 305k 2 years ago...going theorugh at 230k...you tell me thats 5 or 2.5 percent....even some on here are suffering stocholm syndrome....actual selling prices from peak are probaby already 10 plus percent and up to 25 in some cases....i hate leasehold...its a scam and i tell you 230k seems reasonable because of conditioning but it isnt....its going to go sub 200k.....i think we shall see 2004 prices inside2/3 years.....2.5...5% don;t make me laugh :)

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I've voted for Even, as much because I don't know what will happen as because I have a strong logic for them being exactly the same.

Whilst generally it seems like a recession may be coming, which would definitely act to reduce prices, equally I can see that once Brexit is resolved - whichever way it's resolved - that will I suspect create a bounce in house prices as people who've been holding off doing anything big actually get on with it.

Another point is that I don't see the same level of talk these days of rampant HPI to the moon like 2007 - so whereas 2007/8 was a game changer the next recession won't be.

However, on the flip side, the big fall in interest rates and QE that happened in 2009/10 won't happen this time either.

So on balance - no idea, vote Even.

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I left the wife with a couple of friends yesterday while I took the boy to the football. Met up afterwards, few hours later- practically the first thing friend #1 said to me “so when are you going to buy a house then?”

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On 06/04/2019 at 10:10, 2rocketman said:

If you have used help to buy or bought a new build on an estate you might as well just hand the keys back now...

As many people discovered in the early 90s, there is no such thing as 'jingle mail' (hand back the keys and the mortgage is forgiven even if it's in negative equity) in the UK. You owe the number on the piece of paper with your signature on it and the banks want it all paid back, on time and with interest.

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14 months for various Organs to make up numbers, and only £20??  We might be using the strong and stable Euro by then.  Foxton’s says £24 anyway.

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Don’t WANT to dis. the competition, butt I will - the graduations are wrong.  There are no < or >, and (unsurprisingly) the +/- aren’t even.

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My reasoning is that something has to give and if push comes to shove they'll sacrifice house prices rather than banks. 

So logically the banks have to stop lending first.

 

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It will be down 5% (more in London) but not due to Brexit at all but down to increased costs vs wages that are only rising a bit above them plus interest rate creep up/ HTB now needing pay back / tax breaks for landlords ending....

Then 10 years of small falls 0 to 3% PA - until houses become a risky thing to buy and a dirty word

Edited by bear.getting.old

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Up -  more than 5%.

A lot of people are just sitting \and waiting to see what happens.  That has not caused a huge drop in prices.

When we leave people will realise that the world has not stopped and life will carry on as usual.  Then they will come out and buy. 

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Should of been a -1% option - Voted for no change, I think -2.5% is too big a drop in that timeframe given government policy.

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+2.5%, Brexit will still be under negotiation, Interest rates still all but zero, no forced sales, no need to sell, supply will be tight and the property owners aren't giving it away . 

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Lots of house building going on here in the southwest. Almost every village now has it's own development/shoebox estate being thrown up and plans for 1000's more houses. Can't see any increasing demand except for those fleeing Bristol and willing to make the two hour round trip 250 times every year - each to their own I guess.

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Can you add the no idea option?  I thought that prices might drop in 2002 and now realize that I don't know.  To be honest anything from a 50% drop or 10 rise seems possible.

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  • 239 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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