?...! Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 I know there will be a strong bias on a site called HousePriceCrash.co.uk, we all do. So I have tried to make this as fair as possible, there is room for bulls and bears alike here. I think it would be interesting to see the spectrum of how everyone here sees the next significant move of the market. The word significant refers to your own definition of significant as this will best describe what you personally are looking for from the market and the likelihood of you entering or leaving the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
underpressuretobuy Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 I think it would be interesting to see the spectrum of how everyone here sees the next significant move of the market. I think it would be extremely useful to do this poll monthly alongside Ianbeale's poll to assess HPC sentiment. What do other people think? Should this be pinned and run monthly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
?...! Posted February 2, 2006 Author Share Posted February 2, 2006 Kerbump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
?...! Posted February 2, 2006 Author Share Posted February 2, 2006 (edited) After 20 votes 1 Bull 2 Flatliners 17 Bears So far this poll is more skewed than I thought it would be. Edited February 2, 2006 by ?...! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
?...! Posted February 2, 2006 Author Share Posted February 2, 2006 Just kicking this back to the top. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PostalVote Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 To me, the market is falling. I see 47 properties on Rightmove >100k where before there were none. They are grotty and undesireable, but they are less than 100k, even the grot last year was asking way above this. What ever the beeb may tell us, the tide has turned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 (edited) Sticking to my guns and saying 'next year fall' coz of the short term fixed mortgages from '03 '04 expiring in a higher interest rate environment. 30% more on monthly payments should be enough to bust a few. Sad prediction but then it's what happened last time. Edit - by fall I mean big fall. Edited February 2, 2006 by megaflop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
look to the past Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 I use this site to try to get a clear idea of what is going on in the housing market – But what worry’s me about the results so far is how so many can really believe that the market is falling, I understand that in places the house prices may have gone down slightly but generally country wide (including Scotland etc) they are rising at the moment. Only one report (hometrack) has a negative YOY price – but even that is showing + at the moment (which in my opinion will continue for at least 4 months) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 I use this site to try to get a clear idea of what is going on in the housing market – But what worry’s me about the results so far is how so many can really believe that the market is falling, I understand that in places the house prices may have gone down slightly but generally country wide (including Scotland etc) they are rising at the moment. Only one report (hometrack) has a negative YOY price – but even that is showing + at the moment (which in my opinion will continue for at least 4 months) Actualamente, according to Hometrack MOST areas in the UK are down in 2005. Just a few are up to raise the average to 0.1%. Have to remember most reports are based on ASKING prices which are really meaningless (as is the intention). Nationwide report my area down 5% in 2005 for e.g. Check your area here: http://www.hometrack.co.uk/index.cfm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
?...! Posted February 2, 2006 Author Share Posted February 2, 2006 KAbump (for the evening posters) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cupidstunt Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 I wouldn't be surprised to see prices climb by as much as 6% by the middle of this year (VI's massaged figures making prices look better than they are) before dropping back during the second half of the year. Crash will start in the Autumn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 I think I must have misread the poll topic. I posted what I believe to be joe-publics next consensus of the market. ..that being,we'll probably see a small drop but not this year...next year just a little slip but nothing to worry about. ...the reality is starkly different,prices ARE falling by sizeable chunks(5-10% down in bucks,oxon,devon,somerset)...and perception will change as the media coverage changes tack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 I would go a bit further and say the market is fragmented. The south is falling according to regional figures, and it is easy to find examples. But I believe it is still going up in the North, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The headline figure will be roughly flat for the next 6months, unless there is an interest rates rise of course. The second half of this year may see more falls, but seasonal adjustment will make everything look fine! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr_Sminty Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 I dont see the shitosh hitting the fan properly until say 2008, which times in nicely to my saving plan mwwwuuaahhhhhaaaa. I think theres too much easy credit still available, risk is going out the window in too many peoples mind including the big institutions moving into property, still lots of irrational demand (those huge arab $ funds are flowing into UK commercial property!). Mid summer 2006 confidence crisis starts in US, knock on world recession 2007, 2008 property becomes a burden not an asset, long term deflation and dithering for a good number of years. In the mean timeheadline House price inflation will rise i.e. certain s*****y property types, discounted new builds and inertia caused in geographical areas catching the coat tails and BTL muppets BMVing etc. Genuine housing demand such as FTBs will depress more tradtional buying chains prices stagnate as people entrench and refuse to sell when they read all the tripe about HPI all around them and dont want to be cheated by those scum on the rung below taking the pee with such below asking price offers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down with the BBC Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 Definetly falling. I live in Cambs (quite expensive) and i can buy grot for....well check out this link. Before everything was bout £80k+ http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-101...a_n=31&tr_t=buy. So quite substantial Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mad'un Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 OK who's the numpty who voted "booming" ?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Darker Law Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 As far as I can see Scotland is only rising in the last areas where nobody wants to live. The 20 odd percent rise in these areas has skewed the figures. In early hotspots such as Glasgow I have seen countless properties sell for less than asking price. I have also seen some sell for less then they were bought two years ago. I have also seen asking prices lower around 5-10% particularly on new build flats since September 2005. I have rarely seen properties sell considerably above asking price, though have to admit I have seen many sell for asking price, but this asking price may have been reduced! Consequently, I voted for falling, particularly as I believe Scotland is lagging the rest of the UK (despite what I said above). NDL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smell the Fear Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Definetly falling. I live in Cambs (quite expensive) and i can buy grot for....well check out this link. Before everything was bout £80k+ http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-101...a_n=31&tr_t=buy. So quite substantial Is "liquorpond street" an appropriate name? It looks like the sort of flat an old alco would pass away in, in a pool of his own piss and vomit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dunroamin Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 i believe the market is crashing. but only 2 of us (so far) do?? dead surprised by that. where is crashisunderway when u need him??? put it this way - i wouldn't wanna be trying to sell a house right now. despite all the shite thats pumped out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
look to the past Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Watch the UK Builders. They had a huge runup since November Have been trying to peak since Christmas. This last move may do it- make the top The reports of a peak, after they happen in the stocks, will start to filter into the press 4-6 weeks later Still good at the moment and they think they are in a strong forward sales position http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060203/214/g2vq3.html Bellway sales up 1% in first half LONDON (ShareCast) - Housebuilder Bellway sold 2,958 homes in the first half, up 1% on a year ago, while the group says is has seen an upturn in buyer confidence since Christmas with sales rates improving. "The improvement in the size and quality of our land bank, combined with an affordable product range and a strong forward sales position, leaves the Group well positioned to achieve its goals for this and coming years," said Bellway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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