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The Bear/bull Spectrum

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I know there will be a strong bias on a site called HousePriceCrash.co.uk, we all do.

So I have tried to make this as fair as possible, there is room for bulls and bears alike here.

I think it would be interesting to see the spectrum of how everyone here sees the next significant move of the market.

The word significant refers to your own definition of significant as this will best describe what you personally are looking for from the market and the likelihood of you entering or leaving the market.

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I think it would be interesting to see the spectrum of how everyone here sees the next significant move of the market.

I think it would be extremely useful to do this poll monthly alongside Ianbeale's poll to assess HPC sentiment.

What do other people think? Should this be pinned and run monthly?

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After 20 votes

1 Bull

2 Flatliners

17 Bears

So far this poll is more skewed than I thought it would be.

Edited by ?...!

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To me, the market is falling. I see 47 properties on Rightmove >100k where before there were none. They are grotty and undesireable, but they are less than 100k, even the grot last year was asking way above this.

What ever the beeb may tell us, the tide has turned.

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Sticking to my guns and saying 'next year fall' coz of the short term fixed mortgages from '03 '04 expiring in a higher interest rate environment. 30% more on monthly payments should be enough to bust a few.

Sad prediction but then it's what happened last time.

Edit - by fall I mean big fall.

Edited by megaflop

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I use this site to try to get a clear idea of what is going on in the housing market –

But what worry’s me about the results so far is how so many can really believe that the market is falling, I understand that in places the house prices may have gone down slightly but generally country wide (including Scotland etc) they are rising at the moment.

Only one report (hometrack) has a negative YOY price – but even that is showing + at the moment (which in my opinion will continue for at least 4 months)

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I use this site to try to get a clear idea of what is going on in the housing market –

But what worry’s me about the results so far is how so many can really believe that the market is falling, I understand that in places the house prices may have gone down slightly but generally country wide (including Scotland etc) they are rising at the moment.

Only one report (hometrack) has a negative YOY price – but even that is showing + at the moment (which in my opinion will continue for at least 4 months)

Actualamente, according to Hometrack MOST areas in the UK are down in 2005. Just a few are up to raise the average to 0.1%. Have to remember most reports are based on ASKING prices which are really meaningless (as is the intention). Nationwide report my area down 5% in 2005 for e.g. Check your area here:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/index.cfm

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I wouldn't be surprised to see prices climb by as much as 6% by the middle of this year (VI's massaged figures making prices look better than they are) before dropping back during the second half of the year. Crash will start in the Autumn. :rolleyes:

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I think I must have misread the poll topic.

I posted what I believe to be joe-publics next consensus of the market.

..that being,we'll probably see a small drop but not this year...next year just a little slip but nothing to worry about.

...the reality is starkly different,prices ARE falling by sizeable chunks(5-10% down in bucks,oxon,devon,somerset)...and perception will change as the media coverage changes tack.

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I would go a bit further and say the market is fragmented. The south is falling according to regional figures, and it is easy to find examples. But I believe it is still going up in the North, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The headline figure will be roughly flat for the next 6months, unless there is an interest rates rise of course. The second half of this year may see more falls, but seasonal adjustment will make everything look fine!

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I dont see the shitosh hitting the fan properly until say 2008, which times in nicely to my saving plan mwwwuuaahhhhhaaaa. I think theres too much easy credit still available, risk is going out the window in too many peoples mind including the big institutions moving into property, still lots of irrational demand (those huge arab $ funds are flowing into UK commercial property!). Mid summer 2006 confidence crisis starts in US, knock on world recession 2007, 2008 property becomes a burden not an asset, long term deflation and dithering for a good number of years.

In the mean timeheadline House price inflation will rise i.e. certain s*****y property types, discounted new builds and inertia caused in geographical areas catching the coat tails and BTL muppets BMVing etc. Genuine housing demand such as FTBs will depress more tradtional buying chains prices stagnate as people entrench and refuse to sell when they read all the tripe about HPI all around them and dont want to be cheated by those scum on the rung below taking the pee with such below asking price offers.

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As far as I can see Scotland is only rising in the last areas where nobody wants to live. The 20 odd percent rise in these areas has skewed the figures.

In early hotspots such as Glasgow I have seen countless properties sell for less than asking price. I have also seen some sell for less then they were bought two years ago. I have also seen asking prices lower around 5-10% particularly on new build flats since September 2005.

I have rarely seen properties sell considerably above asking price, though have to admit I have seen many sell for asking price, but this asking price may have been reduced!

Consequently, I voted for falling, particularly as I believe Scotland is lagging the rest of the UK (despite what I said above).

NDL

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Definetly falling. I live in Cambs (quite expensive) and i can buy grot for....well check out this link. Before everything was bout £80k+ http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-101...a_n=31&tr_t=buy. So quite substantial

Is "liquorpond street" an appropriate name? It looks like the sort of flat an old alco would pass away in, in a pool of his own piss and vomit. :(

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i believe the market is crashing.

but only 2 of us (so far) do?? dead surprised by that.

where is crashisunderway when u need him??? :blink:

put it this way - i wouldn't wanna be trying to sell a house right now. despite all the shite thats pumped out.

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Watch the UK Builders.

They had a huge runup since November

Have been trying to peak since Christmas. This last move may do it- make the top

The reports of a peak, after they happen in the stocks, will start to filter into the press 4-6 weeks later

Still good at the moment and they think they are in a strong forward sales position

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060203/214/g2vq3.html

Bellway sales up 1% in first half

LONDON (ShareCast) - Housebuilder Bellway sold 2,958 homes in the first half, up 1% on a year ago, while the group says is has seen an upturn in buyer confidence since Christmas with sales rates improving.

"The improvement in the size and quality of our land bank, combined with an affordable product range and a strong forward sales position, leaves the Group well positioned to achieve its goals for this and coming years," said Bellway.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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