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rantnrave

Land Registry Jan 2019 (released March 2019)

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I rather like The Guardian's take in the live business section:

London house prices suffer biggest fall in a decade

In London, prices shrank by 1.6% - the biggest annual decline since September 2009 when Britain was struggling out of the last recession.

The ONS says:

Over the past two and a half years, there has been a slowdown in UK house price growth, driven mainly by a slowdown in the south and east of England.

The lowest annual growth was in London, where prices fell by 1.6% over the year to January 2019, down from a decrease of 0.7% in December 2018. This was followed by the East of England where prices fell 0.2% over the year.

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We have made some changes to improve the accuracy of the UK HPI. We are not publishing average price and percentage change for new builds and existing resold property as done previously because there are not currently enough new build transactions to provide a reliable result. This means that in this month’s UK HPI reports, new builds and existing resold property are reported in line with the sales volumes currently available.

I wonder if there's anything in those numbers which the govt doesn't want to be drawing attention to...?

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So its a slow deflation on collapsed turnover.  Which will do the trick, but I'm beginning to wonder if its my (potential) grandkids that will have access to good housing value, rather than my kids - worrying😐

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7 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

So its a slow deflation on collapsed turnover.  Which will do the trick, but I'm beginning to wonder if its my (potential) grandkids that will have access to good housing value, rather than my kids - worrying😐

Ever-vigilant Carney and co will spring into action if the falls accelerate too quickly

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19 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

We have made some changes to improve the accuracy of the UK HPI. We are not publishing average price and percentage change for new builds and existing resold property as done previously because there are not currently enough new build transactions to provide a reliable result. This means that in this month’s UK HPI reports, new builds and existing resold property are reported in line with the sales volumes currently available.

I wonder if there's anything in those numbers which the govt doesn't want to be drawing attention to...?

 

They want to hide the fact that new builds are supporting the figures and existing resold property dragging them down.

New build figures are distorted by the government backing the market. Anybody buying a new build at these inflated prices is falling into a trap, yet the government want them to keep on purchasing.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, hotblack42 said:

So its a slow deflation on collapsed turnover.  Which will do the trick, but I'm beginning to wonder if its my (potential) grandkids that will have access to good housing value, rather than my kids - worrying😐

Its really annoying if they proves to be the case.

Buy 400k+ house and loose 100k ish or keep kids crammed like sardines.

The pressure atm is getting to me as hardly anything for sale and now the kids have joined the wife in the daily moan. It used to be ok to view the places and put offers in.....but now nothing for sale at all

I have come this far and I just cannot bring myself to buy the dregs, for the max price at this point of the market.

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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27 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Its really annoying if they proves to be the case.

Buy 400k+ house and loose 100k ish or keep kids crammed like sardines.

The pressure atm is getting to me as hardly anything for sale and now the kids have joined the wife in the daily moan. It used to be ok to view the places and put offers in.....but now nothing for sale at all

I have come this far and I just cannot bring myself to buy the dregs, for the max price at this point of the market.

 

same boat here but unfortunately time marches on....

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2 hours ago, hotblack42 said:

So its a slow deflation on collapsed turnover.  Which will do the trick, but I'm beginning to wonder if its my (potential) grandkids that will have access to good housing value, rather than my kids - worrying😐

You often hear that people will just take their homes off the market and sit it out, which they may do. But as less new credit is created for house purchases, and existing credit is paid back, the money supply is deflated. It's pretty much like unwinding QE.

People may decide they don't want to sell, but those with a mortgage can't decide they don't want to pay it off. This is what the BoE will be concerned about.

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2 hours ago, rantnrave said:

We have made some changes to improve the accuracy of the UK HPI. We are not publishing average price and percentage change for new builds and existing resold property as done previously because there are not currently enough new build transactions to provide a reliable result. This means that in this month’s UK HPI reports, new builds and existing resold property are reported in line with the sales volumes currently available.

I wonder if there's anything in those numbers which the govt doesn't want to be drawing attention to...?

Responsible statisticians should not be referring to HPI ...the numbers may show deflation.  Why assumption of inflation?  They should be more careful in their choice of language, they should be referring to change not inflation.  I guess this slip up gives a lot away.

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1 minute ago, Wayward said:

Responsible statisticians should not be referring to HPI ...the numbers may show deflation.  Why assumption of inflation?  They should be more careful in their choice of language, they should be referring to change not inflation.  I guess this slip up gives a lot away.

Deflation can be described as negative inflation - we shouldn't be referring to inflation at all I suppose. Simply "change" might be better - consistently using a word implying a particular direction and negating it if necessary creates a mindset biased towards that direction but it does describe what happens most of the time.

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1 hour ago, Fromage Frais said:

I have come this far and I just cannot bring myself to buy the dregs, for the max price at this point of the market.

Continue renting then 

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3 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Deflation can be described as negative inflation - we shouldn't be referring to inflation at all I suppose. Simply "change" might be better - consistently using a word implying a particular direction and negating it if necessary creates a mindset biased towards that direction but it does describe what happens most of the time.

 

to quote ONS...

"The lowest annual growth was in London, where prices fell by 1.6% over the year to January 2019"

So the lowest growth was actually fall?  It is doublespeak or newspeak.  We expect it from the press but professional statisticians should know better.

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4 hours ago, happyguy said:

Continue renting then 

I own outright

But its a flat (apparently worth) 200K 3 bed 90m2 with garage

Being a selfish **** I think 150 - 200k is a jump to far around here.

If I wanted to keep the kids in the same school the jump would be 300K

In the posh parts round here no area has a average household income of more than 60k.

3-5x household income on just the mortgage.

I would do it but the employment situation around here is the same as 2011 as are the wages pretty much.

2011 - 350k, 2017/18 - 550k

My competition mostly are from London/Cambridge as no job around here will pay (neither do theirs but they have London equity). 

It wants to fall just needs something to get people to actually sell or longer term London Cambridge to fall a bit (which looks like its happening).

Can I say its falling .... not for family homes but everything else (flats, small homes, massive homes) are not making new highs as before.

 


 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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4 hours ago, Wayward said:

Responsible statisticians should not be referring to HPI ...the numbers may show deflation.  Why assumption of inflation?  They should be more careful in their choice of language, they should be referring to change not inflation.  I guess this slip up gives a lot away.

There is no assumption of inflation - HPI is their abbreviation of "House Price Index".  It's not a slip and doesn't give anything away. 

It's actually only on this website I've ever seen HPI being used as an abbreviation of "house price inflation"

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7 hours ago, sisyphal said:

 

They want to hide the fact that new builds are supporting the figures and existing resold property dragging them down.

New build figures are distorted by the government backing the market. Anybody buying a new build at these inflated prices is falling into a trap, yet the government want them to keep on purchasing.

 

 

 

Anyone buying a HTB new build has paid a 20% stupidity tax. Lucky the gvmt will lend you the 20% in the form of a stupidity loan.

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16 minutes ago, Sausage said:

Anyone buying a HTB new build has paid a 20% stupidity tax. Lucky the gvmt will lend you the 20% in the form of a stupidity loan.

Except that HTB has had the effect of increasing all prices (albeit debatable as to what degree).

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Turning out to be quite a nice HPC week what with the Fungus documentary and these latest ONS numbers.

Has anyone got to the bottom of the Nationwide's 5%+ mom increase yet? I've not seen a lot about it in the press I thought it would've been on the front page of the DM but seems to have gone under the radar somewhat.

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Given we all know 1. A recession is coming. 2. A credit crunch is coming. 3. Tsiathtf: at some point, you have to sell high and then wait. 

Otherwise, you fall when prices fall. 

The truth is: no one does that.

So it's a only few lucky millennials that will get the benefit ( those with deposits at the exact right time), and everyone else goes down with the ship. 

Everyone else is sucking up the drop. 

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2 hours ago, Smiley George said:

Turning out to be quite a nice HPC week what with the Fungus documentary and these latest ONS numbers.

Has anyone got to the bottom of the Nationwide's 5%+ mom increase yet? I've not seen a lot about it in the press I thought it would've been on the front page of the DM but seems to have gone under the radar somewhat.

Nationwide 5% was that today as can't see it?

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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