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neon tetra

RM March 2019 +0.4% MoM

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Lowest March figure since 2010 and the second lowest ever.

Still waiting for the report.

By my calculations that should be annual falls of about 0.9%. Unless there is jiggery pokery. Being pessimistic with the rounding still gives -0.3% YoY falls.

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0.9% fall was a good estimate. Here's the Guardian's take on it:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/18/brexit-property-uk-asking-prices-fall-rightmove

"Brexit anxiety has all but killed the traditional spring property revival, pushing down asking prices across the UK by 0.8% in the year to March, according to property website Rightmove"

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1 hour ago, crazypabs said:

Link now updated to March report. No mention of falls!

 

Usual spring buoyancy weighed down by Brexit uncertainty

  • The average price of property coming to market rises by just 0.4% (+£1,287) this month, as the traditionally busier spring market gets off to a subdued start:
    • Lowest average monthly rise at this time of year since 2011, though London is the main drag
    • Prices remain more buoyant outside London with nine out of 11 regions seeing new-to-the-market sellers pricing higher
  • More buyers hesitating as Brexit goes to the wire:
    • Number of sales agreed by estate agents in February was 7% below same period in 2018, compared with the 4% annual fall recorded in January
    • Search activity on Rightmove remains steady, indicating home movers are keeping a watching brief which could lead to an eventual bounce if and when uncertainty abates 

 

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11 minutes ago, neon tetra said:

Link now updated to March report. No mention of falls!

 

Usual spring buoyancy weighed down by Brexit uncertainty

  • The average price of property coming to market rises by just 0.4% (+£1,287) this month, as the traditionally busier spring market gets off to a subdued start:
    • Lowest average monthly rise at this time of year since 2011, though London is the main drag
    • Prices remain more buoyant outside London with nine out of 11 regions seeing new-to-the-market sellers pricing higher
  • More buyers hesitating as Brexit goes to the wire:
    • Number of sales agreed by estate agents in February was 7% below same period in 2018, compared with the 4% annual fall recorded in January
    • Search activity on Rightmove remains steady, indicating home movers are keeping a watching brief which could lead to an eventual bounce if and when uncertainty abates 

 

could and eventual are opposites 

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1 hour ago, crazypabs said:

Hidden in the full report is the Annual change of -0.8%

 

Screenshot_20190318-114232.png

I love the three 'sectors' - how many of todays FTBs will make it to the 'top of the ladder'...? :unsure:

Edited by Wayward
right words - wrong order

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As the market falls, estate agents raise asking prices ( even though prices are falling) in order to get the business.  

So getting prices ( as opposed to asking prices) are probably already negative. 

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1 hour ago, 24gray24 said:

As the market falls, estate agents raise asking prices ( even though prices are falling) in order to get the business.  

So getting prices ( as opposed to asking prices) are probably already negative. 

My experience is as soon as EA puts that price on though the vendor has already spent money in their head so won't drop much.

EA valuation 240k, non-EA valuation 200k. Non-EA valuer explaining discrepency to me, they are either on crack or based on next doors sale price, without checking that it has 4 beds not 3. Would have been 36% increase in 4 yrs ownership...

Valuations are based on whatever they think can borrow - if try and say no EA try and get affordability info to 'help you get a better deal' - pay them more

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3 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

As the market falls, estate agents raise asking prices ( even though prices are falling) in order to get the business.  

So getting prices ( as opposed to asking prices) are probably already negative. 

Would not surprise me.

That and prices only being held up to very few higher priced properties being sold the equally low number of folks who can afford them.

As posted before feels like fall here in Norfolk of flats, high end (600k+) and low end houses (BTL fodder).  A big shortage of family homes 4 beds.

I can only imagine those buying are desperate families with huge mortgages, + flat equity + bank of mum and dad.  A good proportion of such properties are SSTC for ages also so really long chains IMHO. 

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

As the market falls, estate agents raise asking prices ( even though prices are falling) in order to get the business.

That, and easy credit, is the reason we are in this mess.   The EA has a gift for spending others money, and will spend the next year(s) explaining why it hasn't sold.

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Ea's have to lie because if they don't give the highest quote, they won't get the business initially. 

So it sits with no offers for 6 months. Then they tell seller it's overpriced.  

Seller  then becomes " resigned to keeping it". 

So market slows to a halt. 

However, once everyone knows prices are falling further every month, panic ensues. 

We seem to be in the halt phase. Like the cartoon, where he's run off the cliff but not looked down yet. 

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3 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

Ea's have to lie because if they don't give the highest quote, they won't get the business initially. 

So it sits with no offers for 6 months. Then they tell seller it's overpriced.  

Seller  then becomes " resigned to keeping it". 

So market slows to a halt. 

However, once everyone knows prices are falling further every month, panic ensues. 

We seem to be in the halt phase. Like the cartoon, where he's run off the cliff but not looked down yet. 

I hope you're right... Dear god I hope you are...

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In my (very specific 5 mile radius) search area every single 2-bed ex-BTL goes on at 220,000 despite the fact that not one single one has EVER sold for that when you look at the sold listings on Rightmove.

They all sit for a bit, go SSTC, disappear and come right back again.  I've seen the interior photos of some of them so often it's like I've lived there  -"ahh, the one with the purple feature wall, the one with the funny outbuilding thingy, the one with those horrid curtains that they should just take down, the one with the 90s bathroom where the sink is a scallop shell"

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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