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Freki

OBR forecasting maestria

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So it seems that all the modelling techniques that are used in many companies, universities and others to provide an unbiased forecast on the different topics have yet reached the OBR.

Here we have clearly the agenda. Price growth are going down sharply, so the forecast will just flatline the current growth (make sense, someone is a genius over there)

6 Months later and the obvious growth keeps decelerating, genius number 2 joins the party, and decides it's not a flatline but a U shape. The tipping point of the U being at 0% ( he must have read somewhere you can't lose money with house prices) and then it will go back to 4% and flatline at this level because (no idea but 4% is nice, peaceful, close to growth rate forecasted for the economy). 

Without delaying this further, the piece of art from OBR:

image.png.bb2ad0695328001d21e718c87ca29b7a.png

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It's just made up nonsense. All these forecasts are, like that oil will rise by 6.2% or the economy will grow by 1.4%

The predictions are always wrong, yet they keep churning out more.

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4 hours ago, Freki said:

So it seems that all the modelling techniques that are used in many companies, universities and others to provide an unbiased forecast on the different topics have yet reached the OBR.

Here we have clearly the agenda. Price growth are going down sharply, so the forecast will just flatline the current growth (make sense, someone is a genius over there)

6 Months later and the obvious growth keeps decelerating, genius number 2 joins the party, and decides it's not a flatline but a U shape. The tipping point of the U being at 0% ( he must have read somewhere you can't lose money with house prices) and then it will go back to 4% and flatline at this level because (no idea but 4% is nice, peaceful, close to growth rate forecasted for the economy). 

Without delaying this further, the piece of art from OBR:

image.png.bb2ad0695328001d21e718c87ca29b7a.png

+1

Another one of Chote's blind guesses.

Either that or he's learned Carney's about to unleash TFS lll.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Uncle_Kenny said:

It's just made up nonsense. All these forecasts are, like that oil will rise by 6.2% or the economy will grow by 1.4%

The predictions are always wrong, yet they keep churning out more.

Nope.

6.0006%

1.000025%

Standard economist ******.

Just say 1-3%

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Perhaps they should show past forecasts against the actual so we can decide whether any merit in paying attention...strange we don't see that?

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No government or central bank economist ever got fired for saying everything will be back to normal in 2 years' time. In this case it's clear that they consider 4% HPI to be normal.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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