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PeanutButter

What will Brexit mean for house prices?

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Mark Carney warned that leaving the EU without a deal could send house prices tumbling make houses more affordable by a third,

 

 

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and last week he added that UK growth would be the long overdue and utterly necessary recession would be ‘guaranteed’ to fall clear out all the economic deadwood he had personally piled up, in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

 

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Feels like holding manoeuvres.

Businesses that make money from properties selling and people moving cannot be doing well at the moment.

I personally do not feel the market after brexit will be as good as many vendors hope.  I have been told that loads are holding back lest they sell their nest egg for less than its true worth.

This dearth of stock in my area has helped stem the gradual falls over the previous few months.

It used to be a question of nice house silly price now its hard to find a nice house at all.

There are only a couple of areas with lots of stock and they are moving down mainly flats and middle/lower estate houses.

 

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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2 hours ago, winkie said:

Depends on how much more prepared to print and how much global faith there is in the pound.;)

+ 1

Winner. 

 

274px-Gold_Cup_icon.svg.png

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Someone at the BBC decided to post some honesty

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47458921

Did QE cause asset prices to rise - yes, has it hurt people who didn't cause the financial problems - yes.

I suspect given how toxic the reporting is about QE they'd have to rebadge it.

I expect 'stimulus' post Brexit to be government not BofE based initially as we find the magic money tree.

I hope Brexit brings a drop in house prices, I'd take a 10-15% drop, but in reality I expect most folks will delist waiting for unicorn prices. There just doesn't seem to be much on at the min and anything good goes.

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Decreasing demand will lower prices a little, if we get decreasing demand.

But unless we reverse the last several decades of trend toward zero real rates and continual extending of length of mortgages, house prices are going to stay high. Also note, in global currency terms, we've already had two major house price crashes after 2008 and 2016 (brexit). Shame this doesn't help locals but I keep hearing about how devaluing our currency is great, so perhaps I'll see the benefits someday.

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It's all about the Boomers I think. Will they all try to downsize at the same time? I actually think now a lot of them have seen what is out there and for how much it's not worth selling their Boomer-Palaces and buying a far far smaller place for only a bit less money.

Boomers cannot ever REDUCE their living standards and Pose-factor therefore I predict they will stay in their pads and not sell them for anything less than absolute top-dollar.

Result? Gen X will not be able to aspire to the life their parents as the big posh pads are now far out of reach.

Honestly, I think we are going to have to wait til the boomers are literally ALL too old to stay in their mansions then there will be a huge sell-off as they move to care-homes. Or wangle it that the young service them in their castles.

How old is the average Boomer now? Born 1950 say? 70. Not that old and have got 20yrs of spritely red-trouser-wearing left. 

Has anyone noticed how old people we knew in the 70's were bald and now 75yr old men all have huge shocks of white hair? Clearly going to live for 25 more years on a Final Salary Pension funded by their children. "At one point my wife had to get a job" says Len about Sheila as they park their Range Rover outside the Amouse-Bouche Restaurant. "The young just need to work harder" Len says as he answers his mobile phone. "Young Ken!" (Ken is 75 and been retired for 25years) "Ah Ah Ah - we're outside now - tell Pam the Trifle is excellent." 

I'm so full of anger.

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18 hours ago, 29929BlackTuesday said:

Boomers cannot ever REDUCE their living standards and Pose-factor therefore I predict they will stay in their pads and not sell them for anything less than absolute top-dollar.

I know a retired woman who agreed to sell her London house (small 4 bed, cash offer 900k) but pulled out of the deal because she can't see very well and was afraid of having to learn a new house. She's had several falls already. The other elderly I know have enough money to pay for carers so they can stay in their houses until death. They also leave the heating on all the time. 

18 hours ago, 29929BlackTuesday said:

I'm so full of anger.

I hope you can work through it. It can make people very sad and ill. 

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5 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

I know a retired woman who agreed to sell her London house (small 4 bed, cash offer 900k) but pulled out of the deal because she can't see very well and was afraid of having to learn a new house. She's had several falls already. The other elderly I know have enough money to pay for carers so they can stay in their houses until death. They also leave the heating on all the time. 

I hope you can work through it. It can make people very sad and ill. 

For anyone that lives to a good old age it is often the mind that begins to die before the body does.;)

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19 hours ago, 29929BlackTuesday said:

It's all about the Boomers I think. Will they all try to downsize at the same time? I actually think now a lot of them have seen what is out there and for how much it's not worth selling their Boomer-Palaces and buying a far far smaller place for only a bit less money.

Boomers cannot ever REDUCE their living standards and Pose-factor therefore I predict they will stay in their pads and not sell them for anything less than absolute top-dollar.

Result? Gen X will not be able to aspire to the life their parents as the big posh pads are now far out of reach.

Honestly, I think we are going to have to wait til the boomers are literally ALL too old to stay in their mansions then there will be a huge sell-off as they move to care-homes. Or wangle it that the young service them in their castles.

How old is the average Boomer now? Born 1950 say? 70. Not that old and have got 20yrs of spritely red-trouser-wearing left. 

Has anyone noticed how old people we knew in the 70's were bald and now 75yr old men all have huge shocks of white hair? Clearly going to live for 25 more years on a Final Salary Pension funded by their children. "At one point my wife had to get a job" says Len about Sheila as they park their Range Rover outside the Amouse-Bouche Restaurant. "The young just need to work harder" Len says as he answers his mobile phone. "Young Ken!" (Ken is 75 and been retired for 25years) "Ah Ah Ah - we're outside now - tell Pam the Trifle is excellent." 

I'm so full of anger.

To enable them to get the market moving and keep prices quite high I see the following happening....

Capital gains tax on main residence phased in over 5 years.

In that period you can avoid the tax by moving to a small property with less rooms (if been there 10 ages or over 65).

Stamp duty discount also.

Cue loads of boomers cashing in to avoid CGT

Edited by Fromage Frais

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4 hours ago, winkie said:

For anyone that lives to a good old age it is often the mind that begins to die before the body does.;)

For the elderly people I know who are staying in their houses - they have full mental faculties and it is the body that is giving in. 

For older people with dementia inevitably the family takes over their finances and sells them out of the house to pay for care.

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I suspect we'll see a rise in prices. 

Total guess but just going on past form of UK government's (and my own Tory party especially). 

The onus is going to be on chasing even more money from overseas and a key asset market in the UK is housing. Most overseas buyers are already from outside the EU anyway. If we have to reduce supply to artificially prop up demand so be it. 

Also can't see immigration falling by very much. Again, it'll just mean more coming from outside the EU longterm. 

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4 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

To enable them to get the market moving and keep prices quite high I see the following happening....

Capital gains tax on main residence phased in over 5 years.

In that period you can avoid the tax by moving to a small property with less rooms (if been there 10 ages or over 65).

Stamp duty discount also.

Cue loads of boomers cashing in to avoid CGT

Fantasy I'm afraid.

No way the tories will alienate their natural voter base, can't see labour being electable (even with the Brexit circus) in 2027, never mind 2022!

However, the tories have proved themselves willing to take a portion of the ill gotten gains of the BTL squad, so there may be hope there...

 

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2 hours ago, AThirdWay said:

Fantasy I'm afraid.

No way the tories will alienate their natural voter base, can't see labour being electable (even with the Brexit circus) in 2027, never mind 2022!

However, the tories have proved themselves willing to take a portion of the ill gotten gains of the BTL squad, so there may be hope there...

 

Maybe so Maybe not.

The conservatives are not like Labour which craziness aside is a thriving party with loads of members.

The conservatives need to keep power to keep the tills ringing so i expect them to jump ship rather than proudly go down with the demographics.

They will pump credit in on one side and try and bring this down in a controlled manner via incentives on the other.  That may keep the asset enriched onside as opposed to clear oblivion with Corbyn.

its a race against time or them as bored desperate people will reach for the brexit style burn the house down option again.

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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I think the current period of ''brexit uncertainty'' is actually the most ''damaging'' for house prices and sentiment.

 

Once brexit is resolved I think it will be up, up and away for property market confidence and prices...

- A satisfactory deal will be massively propagandised as a ''huge boost to the property market''

-A bad deal/no deal will see the printing machines fired up... and we all know where that money will end up.

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Just now, PeanutButter said:

For the elderly people I know who are staying in their houses - they have full mental faculties and it is the body that is giving in. 

For older people with dementia inevitably the family takes over their finances and sells them out of the house to pay for care.

So the body or the mind or both nobody can avoid the symptoms of living to a ripe old age...... best get your house in order with a power of attorney, in case one day can't do anything for yourself, have no control.....Brexit brings full control.;)

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2 hours ago, nome said:

I think the current period of ''brexit uncertainty'' is actually the most ''damaging'' for house prices and sentiment.

 

Once brexit is resolved I think it will be up, up and away for property market confidence and prices...

- A satisfactory deal will be massively propagandised as a ''huge boost to the property market''

-A bad deal/no deal will see the printing machines fired up... and we all know where that money will end up.

you are correct!

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49 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

the only way is up

Or....the market will become flooded with properties as people who've been holding off selling/moving/downsizing because of "Brexit Uncertainty", put their homes on the market a the same time.

Driving prices down.

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4 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

Or....the market will become flooded with properties as people who've been holding off selling/moving/downsizing because of "Brexit Uncertainty", put their homes on the market a the same time.

Driving prices down.

we live in hope!

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10 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

Or....the market will become flooded with properties as people who've been holding off selling/moving/downsizing because of "Brexit Uncertainty", put their homes on the market a the same time.

Driving prices down.

I think this is a distinct possibility.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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