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A long stagnation could kill off Britain’s obsession with house prices


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1 hour ago, hurlerontheditch said:

what a generalisation

i am one of these nasty immigrants and i have paid well over 500k in direct tax since i came here and can safely say the only direct benefit i receive is the odd trip to the GP

I have always thought that the best way to stop people from being anti immigrants would be to say that people can only stay can get permanent residence, if they have paid a certain amount in tax or do a vital low paid job.  Then people would know that all immigrants benefit the country. 

A policy that all should be able to unite on.

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11 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

I have always thought that the best way to stop people from being anti immigrants would be to say that people can only stay can get permanent residence, if they have paid a certain amount in tax or do a vital low paid job.  Then people would know that all immigrants benefit the country. 

A policy that all should be able to unite on.

Low paid jobs tend to be ones that need a fairly constant level of people working in them, ones any country should be able to supply from its own population, and if they can't it's a sign that something in that country is broken and needs fixing, not that it needs to import people to do them.

Any pro immigration argument boils down to "we need more people." Unless you're just settling a new land the argument that "we need more people" will be continual because you'll always find the same reasons for saying it, whilst continually having to make a bloody mess of things to handle all those people.

That all said I notice you said "anti immigrants" as opposed to "anti immigration", those are two very different things and people who are the former are a problem too.

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36 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

I have always thought that the best way to stop people from being anti immigrants would be to say that people can only stay can get permanent residence, if they have paid a certain amount in tax or do a vital low paid job.  Then people would know that all immigrants benefit the country. 

A policy that all should be able to unite on.

Long-term immigrant here. I agree. 

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36 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

I have always thought that the best way to stop people from being anti immigrants would be to say that people can only stay can get permanent residence, if they have paid a certain amount in tax or do a vital low paid job.  Then people would know that all immigrants benefit the country. 

A policy that all should be able to unite on.

Long-term immigrant here. I agree. 

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23 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Low paid jobs tend to be ones that need a fairly constant level of people working in them, ones any country should be able to supply from its own population, and if they can't it's a sign that something in that country is broken and needs fixing, not that it needs to import people to do them.

 

I should have been clearer I should have said jobs which don't pay a lot of tax but are still vital and hard to fill.

I.e. primary school teachers don't pay enough tax to quality under some criteria but are still useful.

 

 

25 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

That all said I notice you said "anti immigrants" as opposed to "anti immigration", those are two very different things and people who are the former are a problem too.

Good point

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10 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

I should have been clearer I should have said jobs which don't pay a lot of tax but are still vital and hard to fill.

I.e. primary school teachers don't pay enough tax to quality under some criteria but are still useful.

Those are precisely the sort of basic jobs that underpin a society,  so being able to fill them from its own population is a basic necessity for a viable country. If it can't it really, really needs to look at what's gone wrong instead of just pinching them from other countries that need them too but aren't so inept and managing their fundamentals.

Immigration is only needed, and not a short-termists excuse for avoiding addressing issues, when a place is newly established (so not very relevant to the current world), when it's of such specialised roles that the expertise is likely to be cross border because it needs to find the best wherever they are, or when the work itself naturally moves from country to country, such as big building projects. You could probably add if somewhere has a rapidly falling population, despite my huge desire for population decline, because too rapid itself causes more problems than it solves, but that itself relies on other countries still undergoing irresponsible growth.

Beyond that it's still desirable to have some immigration, as long as it's in balance with emigration, both for opportunities for people who want to move around the place and because a bit enriches society without significantly changing it.

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52 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Those are precisely the sort of basic jobs that underpin a society,  so being able to fill them from its own population is a basic necessity for a viable country. If it can't it really, really needs to look at what's gone wrong instead of just pinching them from other countries that need them too but aren't so inept and managing their fundamentals.

 

True although we probably can't fix it overnight.

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15 hours ago, Habeas Domus said:

I think prices will only fall for  4-5 years.

4 years of prices dropping 10% a year would see the average price fall from £243K to £159K

5 years would take it down to £143 K

People always forget that a 10% fall is a bigger amount of money than a 10% rise.

The interesting thing is what would then happen next, if interest rates are higher there will be a generation with high mortgage payments who have managed to ride out the storm and will likely be thinking "any day now prices will jump back up again" but the reality will be that another period of record low interest rates will be decades away.

If anything the government of the day will be incentivised to stoke up inflation so that those losses don't look as bad.

You think?

The report is based on the increasing death rate of Baby Boomers born from 1946 to 1964.

They will tend to die over 18 year hence a depreciation of house prices over that period of about 4% per year.

Basically forever. Not a storm, there will be no riding if out. Nobody will want to buy a depreciating asset. There won't be inflation either.

Japan is the previous example.

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6 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

You think?

The report is based on the increasing death rate of Baby Boomers born from 1946 to 1964.

They will tend to die over 18 year hence a depreciation of house prices over that period of about 4% per year.

Basically forever. Not a storm, there will be no riding if out. Nobody will want to buy a depreciating asset. There won't be inflation either.

Japan is the previous example.

 

I agree I dont think the death of the bomers will have any real impact on house prices.

Firstly new builds are just being trickled onto the market, the tap will be turned down when boomers start dieing.

If mass house building were to occur, a huge amount of monetary inflation would be need to compensate, current indebted millennials with HTB or huge mortgages. Otherwise they would default and the goverment does not want to punish those who invest in British housing stock & land. That would have a negative impact of social care, which currently relies partly on boomers selling their properties.

If anything I think the goverment will bring a new policy which gives mortgages some sort of tax relief or benefits. They will find another way to drive up prices or reward the mortgage holders.

2007 subprime crash was unforeseen, the goverment has done everything in its power to drive up prices, I cant see that changing.

 

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21 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Yes, facts pulled out of your **** are obviously more right than any professional analysis. 

And 12% fall is quite significant.

I didn't refer to any facts.  I believe you will find that most posters here will not think 12% is significant...when we have seen prices double in four or five years in some areas.  If you are one of those arguing that mass immigration has only had a marginal impact on rents and prices you are one of those here that doesn't understand how markets work.

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17 minutes ago, Wayward said:

I didn't refer to any facts.  I believe you will find that most posters here will not think 12% is significant...when we have seen prices double in four or five years in some areas.  If you are one of those arguing that mass immigration has only had a marginal impact on rents and prices you are one of those here that doesn't understand how markets work.

Yes. My point was that you made some random opinion based on no facts which makes it a worthless opinion .

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3 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

I'd rather have a short very sharp crash over a few years then we can all get on with our lives. If we have to buy for running out of time reasons then we will be overpaying and trapped in 'negative equity' for generations. 

Indeed. But the govt really doesn't want that.

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15 hours ago, iamnumerate said:

I have always thought that the best way to stop people from being anti immigrants would be to say that people can only stay can get permanent residence, if they have paid a certain amount in tax or do a vital low paid job.  Then people would know that all immigrants benefit the country. 

A policy that all should be able to unite on.

Do you do a vital job?.......do you deserve to be paid well to do a vital job?.......why do you think certain people should be paid well to do certain jobs and paid poorly to do other vital jobs......two tier system, special flowers??

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13 minutes ago, winkie said:

Do you do a vital job?.......do you deserve to be paid well to do a vital job?.......why do you think certain people should be paid well to do certain jobs and paid poorly to do other vital jobs......two tier system, special flowers??

I didn't say anything like that.  This thread is not on how much people should be paid.

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Just now, iamnumerate said:

I didn't say anything like that.  This thread is not on how much people should be paid.

No but it looks like you are saying we should be happy to import people to do vital jobs for low pay......;)

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On ‎04‎/‎03‎/‎2019 at 13:49, thewig said:

The competitive bidding in this case being the amount of DEBT the banks can bid up for the plebs to take on

 

the plebs are told how much mortgage DEBT they can get their hands on, if that figure is more than last year, the price of a house goes up 

Yeah much like the new car market which has been flooded to bursting with cheap credit and prices are...errr... cheaper than ever...:wacko:

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1 hour ago, Wayward said:

Yeah much like the new car market which has been flooded to bursting with cheap credit and prices are...errr... cheaper than ever...:wacko:

Except there's little supply lag in car production.

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On 05/03/2019 at 16:14, PeanutButter said:

Over 18 years -  that's just enough time to feed the 2000s boom babies into the system. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2359543/Baby-boom-Britain-Highest-number-births-1971-fuelled-migrants-older-mothers.html

 

 

 

Older mums and migrants.... got to get those tax credits before they took away.

The downes society appears to have stopped publishing the number of live downs birth. Wonder why .....

The number of special needs kids - loads of stuff wrong - old dads, old mums.....

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On 04/03/2019 at 12:30, Peter Hun said:

Well, that's crap and you've had that pointed out to you many times before.

Tell us why it is crap. 

I think he speaks the truth; it is so obviously the truth that it is almost incontrovertible. 

So tell us why it is crap, rather than just say "that's crap", which really is, quite crap. 

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8 hours ago, Fletcher said:

Tell us why it is crap. 

I think he speaks the truth; it is so obviously the truth that it is almost incontrovertible. 

So tell us why it is crap, rather than just say "that's crap", which really is, quite crap. 

the link he posted to migration watch implies that it is true.

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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