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http://www.cityam.com/273928/uk-house-prices-housing-market-its-knees-amid-brexit

"...But property lender Octane Capital’s chief executive, Jonathan Samuels, warned “the UK property market remains firmly on its knees”.

He added: “The home ownership rate may have improved but the relationship many people have with bricks and mortar is changing irreversibly.

“March could be the month the property market finally succumbs to madness.”"

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47389160

Foxtons warns London housing market in 'prolonged downturn'

London-focused estate agent Foxtons has swung to a loss and says the housing market in the capital is in a "prolonged downturn".

The company reported a loss of £17.2m for last year, partly due to the costs of closing six offices. It made a profit of £6.5m in 2017.

Foxtons added that Brexit uncertainty was "impacting consumer confidence".

Separately, the Nationwide said the UK market remained "subdued", with prices up 0.4% in February from a year ago.

'Further deterioration'

Foxtons said annual revenues fell 5% to £111.5m, with the weakness in property sales being offset slightly by a "resilient lettings performance".

The estate agent was pushed into the red by one-off charges of £15.7m, which included the costs of closing six offices: Beckenham, Enfield, Loughton, Ruislip, Park Lane and Barnes.

Foxtons said it was able to cover 85% of London from 61 branches and had no current plans for further closures.

"Our performance in 2018 was impacted by a further deterioration in the sales market, with transaction levels falling for another year from their already low levels," said chief executive Nic Budden.

However, the company said that in the long term, London remained "a highly attractive property market".

Weaker sentiment

The Nationwide said that house prices in February dipped 0.1% from the month before, with the average property now costing £211,304.

The Nationwide's chief economist, Robert Gardner, said: "Indicators of housing market activity, such as the number of property transactions and the number of mortgages approved for house purchase, have remained broadly stable in recent months, but survey data suggests that sentiment has softened.

"Measures of consumer confidence weakened around the turn of the year and surveyors reported a further fall in new buyer enquiries over the same period.

"While the number of properties coming onto the market also slowed, this doesn't appear to have been enough to prevent a modest shift in the balance of demand and supply in favour of buyers in recent months."

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7 hours ago, lostinessex said:

Frustrating that the YoY figure refuses to go negative - I think we would need that to start seeing newspaper headlines and the start of a bit of fear out there.

Totally agree, however the whole tone of the release seems to be somewhat of a step-change from those before it - with a far more downbeat air of admission and resignation IMO (italics my addition):

Quote

After almost grinding to a complete halt in January, annual house price growth remained subdued in February, with prices just 0.4% higher than the same time last year.

 

Quote

survey data suggests that sentiment has softened.

 

Quote

Measures of consumer confidence weakened around the turn of the year and surveyors reported a further fall in new buyer enquiries over the same period.

 

Quote

While the number of properties coming onto the market also slowed, this doesn’t appear to have been enough to prevent a modest shift in the balance of demand and supply in favour of buyers in recent months.

 

Also great news that the ownership balance appears to be tipping away from scumbag landlords and back to OOs:

Quote

The rise in home ownership was driven by an increase in the number of people owning their home with a mortgage, which began to increase again after declining continuously since 2005

 

So while the numbers aren't great IMO the content and sentiment are utterly fantastic; suggesting that they've finally moved on from the "it's all good mate, just a little leak" mantra to admitting the ship's going down.

This shift is probably the next phase in their calculated attempts to "manage" the public face of falling prices while shifting their marketing focus away from baiting "investors" with "HPI-forever" towards FTBs with "well, now you might actually be able to buy one". 

I look forward to seeing if the Halifax take a similar direction next month and IMO this latest Nationwide release represents a great watershed moment. Having read the news coverage I am starting to develop a Pavlovian gag reflex to reading the term "Brexit uncertainty", though 🤢

 

Edited by ftb_fml

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1 hour ago, highcontrast said:

http://www.cityam.com/273928/uk-house-prices-housing-market-its-knees-amid-brexit

"...But property lender Octane Capital’s chief executive, Jonathan Samuels, warned “the UK property market remains firmly on its knees”.

He added: “The home ownership rate may have improved but the relationship many people have with bricks and mortar is changing irreversibly.

“March could be the month the property market finally succumbs to madness.”"

Feels that way around here.

I have never seen such a boring housing market same old shit for sale for ages.  So few for sale but seemingly less buyers at the same time.   

Estates agents which rely on sales must be all going bust at this rate....I do not know how they are paying the bills.

A perfect excuse for some upside stimulus from the Carney meister.

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3 hours ago, lostinessex said:

Frustrating that the YoY figure refuses to go negative - I think we would need that to start seeing newspaper headlines and the start of a bit of fear out there.

It will come.  That was the fifth straight month of (non-seasonally adjusted) monthly falls.  A couple more months and we’ll be in negative yoy territory.

 

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2 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

I look forward to seeing if the Halifax take a similar direction next month

I agree,

over the past 6 months it seems like there has been a 'to me, to you' type thing between Halifax and Nationwide where they take it in turns to publish 'good' then 'bad' figures, so there is always some good bubble data around for the Daily Express TO PRINT.

We're now seeing both indices and reports very downbeat, but of course the Express is printing stories about one street in Wiltshire where prices are STILL set to SOAR.

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4 hours ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

They will never be negative if huge V.I.s can avoid it - and they can with invalidated data.

Not the first time you like to throw dirt at numbers. Where will be your rhetoric at once the number is negative 

(I know the answer, "not low enough", "still doctored numbers", "Churchill said... ")

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4 hours ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

They will never be negative if huge V.I.s can avoid it - and they can with invalidated data.

 

10 minutes ago, Freki said:

Not the first time you like to throw dirt at numbers. Where will be your rhetoric at once the number is negative 

(I know the answer, "not low enough", "still doctored numbers", "Churchill said... ")

Either way/regardless of how valid the data is ... the number affects sentiment, and sentiment affects demand in terms of ceiling AND the floor of demand.

And whilst the ceiling on the demand is the availability of finance, and the tool(s) the VIs have are primarily focused on the availability of finance (ZIRP, HTB, forbearance and making a mockery of MMR).

The VIs could bolster demand for privately bought housing by further deepening/speeding Right to Buy?

What the VIs can do about sentiment in terms of floor ... I am not sure.

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My point was about the invalidated data. If they throw more props so be it, this is the hand that we are given.

I hope sentiment will turn, and the props attempts won't break gravity

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14 hours ago, Trump Invective said:

“March could be the month the property market finally succumbs to madness.”"

Im not sure what is meant by this

I thought that was a very odd line too.

I presume he's suggesting prices could fall, but I don't think I've ever heard that described in those terms (succumbing to fear, succumbing to panic, succumiing to doubt maybe) and of course, everyone on this site would describe it as returning to sanity.

To describe what, lets face it, is likely to be still very minimal falls by March as 'madness' would be to suggest that the sane situation would be the opoosite, i.e. a booming housing market - and I don't think anyone, regarless of them being HPC fanatics like us or vested interests like estate agents and buidlers, thinks the current market is in a healthy state.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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