First-time buyers make the most of slowing market as purchases hit 12-year high

[zugzwang]

30 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

Catching a falling knife.  I am openly property bear and any time I bring up a possibility of falling prices I am met with blank looks.

The migration betrayal continues unabated; as ever, entirely w/o public consent. Non-EU migrants are now being recruited in record numbers to replace the EU migrants discouraged by Brexit.

 

 

 

[Bear Hug]

Just now, zugzwang said:

The migration betrayal continues unabated; as ever, entirely w/o public consent. Non-EU migrants are now being recruited in record numbers to replace the EU migrants discouraged by Brexit.

The surest way to stop immigration is to make living conditions here worse than in developing countries.  I can only conclude that the government has been listening and are doing their best to achieve such result.

[longgone]

Hey FTB`s all your friends are buying as the 10% discount from the 200% raise after HTB is a crash. Don`t miss out. 

a one time deal. 

any evidence to back this krap up ? or will a few lies convince the other lemmings to join the party.  

 

 

[Left2014]

7 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Catching a falling knife.  I am openly property bear and any time I bring up a possibility of falling prices I am met with blank looks.

It's certainly possible, but, for me, it always comes back to this plot ... https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/money-supply-m1

There's so much new money, and it has to go somewhere. I'm of the opinion that *most* of the rise in house prices doesn't reflect *real* price rises, just the effect of several decades of money creation ... some of the rise in prices may be part of a bubble, but a large chunk may not be ...

[nome]

6 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

The surest way to stop immigration is to make living conditions here worse than in developing countries.  I can only conclude that the government has been listening and are doing their best to achieve such result.

I'm certainly not seeing the govt dong their best to achieve that result... for immigrants or uk nationals. 

The feckless and workshy have never been so well looked after as long as they're capable of playing the system of ''in work'' benefits.

[nome]

9 hours ago, thewig said:

Do we now have an entire populace deep state programmed to think house prices only go up? It’s possible. We have an entire populace who think all sorts of crazy things they have no way of verifying or evidencing. It could be another law of the universe which people never think to question it?

I don't know why you're even posing that as a question, I think it's an absolute fact that we do now have a populace conditioned into believing that house prices only ever go up... and they're willing to do whatever it takes to join the ponzi.

[Left2014]

Just now, nome said:

I don't know why you're even posing that as a question, I think it's an absolute fact that we do now have a populace conditioned into believing that house prices only ever go up... and they're willing to do whatever it takes to join the ponzi.

The whole debt is money is the foundation of the Ponzi scheme ... rising house prices are just the side effect. I say "rising" but really, in the long run, they stay the same price - it's just the yardstick keeps changing size. It's a bit like trying to predict the speed of the car next to you on the motorway without looking at your own speedometer. 

[thewig]

I try and tell people that flea pit which now takes forty years of two incomes to pay for used to be bought by one milkman’s salary 

[happyguy]

I do not understand why people get so angry and agitated by what others do in their own lives.

I love sport but I would not personally spend what I see as a lot of money for a ticket to a premier league football game nor would I spend £195 for a ticket to watch England V the All Blacks.  Equally if others want to that is their choice I do not mind.

Live and let live.  Enjoy your own life do not get agitated about what others do. 

 

16 hours ago, Captain Kirk said:

Dumb money. Just like in 2007.

People who bought in 2007 have seen capital growth and have paid off 11 years of a mortgage mostly those would be over a 25 year term.  If you live in the South East a 1 bed flat can easily be 1k a month. That has paid 84k to someone else.  

 

16 hours ago, thewig said:

Help to DEBT?

Help not to rent?

14 hours ago, Wayward said:

Why would a 'slow down' in prices tempt FTBs into the market??? Wouldn't this make them think it might be better to wait and see if they fall and better value be had next year?  This does not stack up.

Besides there is no denying the reality that now is the worst time ever to buy a house. Only question is whether it will get even worse.

Because prices are less than they were and more affordable for some people who would rather buy than rent.  Maybe they do not see a property as a way to make money but just want a home on which they can pay the mortgage and eventually be mortgage free rather than pay rent and pay someone else’s mortgage.  

14 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

We all thought that in 2009 - and how wrong the predictions were!

 

Exactly and the same thing will happen again.  Some people will wait and wait and wait and not buy when they could.  There are people on the site and in the wider world who could have bought when prices fell last time but did not because even though property prices became affordable they wanted to make a financial killing.  They then get angry because they lost out and are angry at others who did buy and have made money on a property! But fail to see the irony!

11 hours ago, Maximus Skepticus said:

Plus an IQ below 90 to not realise that 40 years of banker slavedom isnt worth the pain of begging BOMAD and the sh1t marketing job that pays them just above average salary ?...I'm thinking FTBers arent just under 30, but probably 30-50 and have been waiting a while. The relative % purchases increase as all transactions decrease...just more skewed stats BS.

Exactly and the same thing will happen again.  Some people will wait and wait and wait and not buy when they could.  There are people on the site and in the world who could have bought when prices fell last time but did not because even though property prices became affordable they wanted to make a financial killing.  They then get angry because they lost out and are angry at others who have made money on a property! But fail to see the irony!

12 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

While it frustrates a lot on here I think we are swimming against the current 

The UK has a house buying culture. With rents as high as they are people want to own a home when they are at the stage of their lives when they want to retire.  

12 hours ago, Captain Kirk said:

New builds? There is no chain with these. I think we are building a lot more than in the past. Not read the article so just suggesting.

There is a huge level of new build.  H2B is sucking many buyers who would normally by on the 2nd hand market.  Additionally many of the snowflake generation are incapable of picking up a paint brush so need to have something that does not need renovation. Accept that many new builds have defects but that is why they opt for new build.  

[happyguy]

10 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Non-EU migrants are now being recruited in record numbers to replace the EU migrants discouraged by Brexit.

Cheap labour. 

9 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Yes, when they come here they are bastards; when British settle elsewhere, they are ex-pats.  I suspect Boris has given up his US citizenship because he was afraid he might lose his British one, like Shamima just did.

The difference is that when Brits move abroad they buy a home and are self -sufficient.  They do no expect to be given a free council house and benefits.  Nor do they slag off the country they have moved to and expect the indigenous population to change their own culture for them.  

 

3 hours ago, nome said:

I don't know why you're even posing that as a question, I think it's an absolute fact that we do now have a populace conditioned into believing that house prices only ever go up... and they're willing to do whatever it takes to join the ponzi.

I think not.  The media is full of stories that house prices have fallen.

Anyone looking at new build will se the incentives/discount on offer.  I do not think I know anyone who thinks property prices have not fallen 

The home buying culture and a wish to own a home rather than rent is a major driver.  People looking to the future may well think that they will not be able to afford to rent a property when they are retired or unable to work in the future.  

I think most owners do not care.  If they are moving to another home they know if they get less for theirs they will buy for less.  It is all relative.  If my house halved in value I could not care less.  It is mortgage free (apart from a nominal £10).  If I did move which I have no intention of doing I would be buying at much less. 

To me a house is a home for me and my family not a financial cash cow. 

[APerson]

8 minutes ago, happyguy said:

People who bought in 2007 have seen capital growth and have paid off 11 years of a mortgage mostly those would be over a 25 year term.  If you live in the South East a 1 bed flat can easily be 1k a month. That has paid 84k to someone else.  

The fundermentals of the people who predicted a HPC in 2007 were largely correct and still hold true. What was unexpected was that the government/banks would pump it up with QE + lending + immigration.

The measures taken did not affect the fundermentals of why a HPC is inevitable, only delayed it and ensured the fallout would be worse.

I think the question here is - can/will they pump the property up again like they did in 2007 or have they already played that card and it won't work a second time/is too dangerous?

[scottbeard]

7 minutes ago, APerson said:

The fundermentals of the people who predicted a HPC in 2007 were largely correct and still hold true. What was unexpected was that the government/banks would pump it up with QE + lending + immigration.

The measures taken did not affect the fundermentals of why a HPC is inevitable, only delayed it and ensured the fallout would be worse.

The trouble is that amounts to saying "people were right, apart from the reasons that made them wrong".

And I don't think immigration is a 2007 government reaction to the crash, incidentally - that really kicked off in 2004 when the eastern European countries joined the EU.  Immigration is also very localized, with some places a magnet for immigrants and others having virtually none.  Low interest rates, QE and help to buy etc are the reactions that helped stabilize and then increase prices.

Whilst a HPC of some description might be likely, I think the magnitude of it is very hard to estimate - and may not be as big as you think given that:

- Two-wage mortgages are effectively a permanent change now: we will never return to the 1990s

- Low interest rates for the long term seem likely (perhaps not at 0.75% but certainly 2% is now the BoE's stated long term aim, not back to 5%).

[Captain Kirk]

29 minutes ago, happyguy said:

People who bought in 2007 have seen capital growth and have paid off 11 years of a mortgage mostly those would be over a 25 year term.  If you live in the South East a 1 bed flat can easily be 1k a month. That has paid 84k to someone else.

They had to be bailed out though.

[zugzwang]

6 minutes ago, happyguy said:

Cheap labour. 

 

The immigrants' primary function is to act as debt-mules. Their ability to serve as disposable replacement labour is a secondary consideration.

7 minutes ago, APerson said:

I think the question here is - can/will they pump the property up again like they did in 2007 or have they already played that card and it won't work a second time/is too dangerous?

The household debt projections made by the OBR suggest that this indeed is their intention. Subdividing the existing housing stock into ever-smaller units will support affordability but represents the final throw of the dice.

[longgone]

1 hour ago, happyguy said:

I do not understand why people get so angry and agitated by what others do in their own lives.

Because the actions of a few morons have an effect on everyone else.  You already had BTL paying anything to get property on IO. now if this is true the FTB is taking over. 

[Confusion of VIs]

17 hours ago, Wayward said:

Why would a 'slow down' in prices tempt FTBs into the market??? Wouldn't this make them think it might be better to wait and see if they fall and better value be had next year?  This does not stack up.

Besides there is no denying the reality that now is the worst time ever to buy a house. Only question is whether it will get even worse.

No the worst time, where I live, was in early 2016. Today you can get a lot more for your money, especially if you are after a new build flat or terraced house.

I agree prices are going to come down more over the next few years but there is a risk they won't and buying a discounted house you really like now with a very cheap 5-10yr fix doesn't seem that unreasonable.    

This is the approach I took in 2012, deciding to buy despite expecting prices to at best remain static over the next few years. At the time a couple of people on here called me a troll for doing so.

In the event by the time my very cheap 5yr fix had expired prices had gone up by almost 50%, to which you could probably add another 5% because buying was far cheaper than renting something similar.  

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, happyguy said:

 

The difference is that when Brits move abroad they buy a home and are self -sufficient.  They do no expect to be given a free council house and benefits.  Nor do they slag off the country they have moved to and expect the indigenous population to change their own culture for them.  

 

You clearly have not met many UK ex-pats. For many, slagging off the country they have moved to and expecting the indigenous population to change to suit them is part of the job description. 

[happyguy]

16 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Existing homeowners move far less often now than in previous decades. Lots of possible reasons including higher transaction costs (e.g. stamp duty), the price gap between their existing home and a nicer one being much bigger due to house price inflation, FTBing later in life close to peak earnings and financially maxing out on property #1 so no financial wiggle room for moving up to a better place, etc

all very true

[happyguy]

4 hours ago, APerson said:

The fundermentals of the people who predicted a HPC in 2007 were largely correct and still hold true. What was unexpected was that the government/banks would pump it up with QE + lending + immigratio

No they were not correct. Irrespective of the reason/s  prices have increased considerably since 2007.  

4 hours ago, scottbeard said:

The trouble is that amounts to saying "people were right, apart from the reasons that made them wrong".

In reality it does not matter, it is what it is.  

4 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Whilst a HPC of some description might be likely, I think the magnitude of it is very hard to estimate - and may not be as big as you think given that:

- Two-wage mortgages are effectively a permanent change now: we will never return to the 1990s

- Low interest rates for the long term seem likely (perhaps not at 0.75% but certainly 2% is now the BoE's stated long term aim, not back to 5%)

Agree, prices will/have fallen but by what level is impossible to say.  With FTB coming back into the market it will re-invigorate the property makers and chains will start moving.  

4 hours ago, Captain Kirk said:

They had to be bailed out though.

Depends what you mean by bailed out I think.  If you mean H2B then I do not disagree, but the fact is H2B is there.  

3 hours ago, longgone said:

Because the actions of a few morons have an effect on everyone else.  You already had BTL paying anything to get property on IO. now if this is true the FTB is taking over. 

So anyone who does not do what you do is a moron? 

They may think that you are a moron for renting and paying off someone else's mortgage but I doubt that they think about it and I doubt that they spend energy getting  angry and agitated about what you do in your own life. 

(I am not being rude to you by the way and I do not think that myself we are all entitled to make our own decisions in life.)

Also it is not a few people is it, there does seem to be a bit of a surge from FTBs.  

I could say that a person who buys a premier football ticket for £80-£100 is a moron or £195 for a ticket to see England play the All Blacks because if everyone stopped paying that much it would become more affordable and I would go far more than I do now.  However to some people it is worth that money, they want to go to the game enough so they pay. That is their choice to which they are entitled and not something I can get angry or agitated about.   

We all do what we want for ourselves and our families.  That is the human condition.  

You are convinced that property prices will fall enormously - so just sit back and wait.  

[iamnumerate]

15 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

The surest way to stop immigration is to make living conditions here worse than in developing countries.  I can only conclude that the government has been listening and are doing their best to achieve such result.

Not really, they could just not give housing benefit nor council houses until people have paid £x tax - that would stop immigrants who don't earn much coming here.

[iamnumerate]

17 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Existing homeowners move far less often now than in previous decades. Lots of possible reasons including higher transaction costs (e.g. stamp duty), the price gap between their existing home and a nicer one being much bigger due to house price inflation, FTBing later in life close to peak earnings and financially maxing out on property #1 so no financial wiggle room for moving up to a better place, etc

Very true of course if people are moving sideways house price inflation does not matter but stamp duty does.

 

[Captain Kirk]

1 hour ago, happyguy said:

Depends what you mean by bailed out I think.  If you mean H2B then I do not disagree, but the fact is H2B is there. 

I mean ZIRP, QE as well as H2B. They were all brought in to prop up and reflate the bubble as well as to stanch job losses. I know people that would have been totally screwed if it weren't for the bailout. They were screwed before the crash. Totally up to their eyeballs in debt and remortgaging at every opportunity to 'release gains'. Bailing out dumb money doesn't make it smart money. Two dumbs don't make a smart.

Edited February 20, 2019 by Captain Kirk

[Dorkins]

1 hour ago, iamnumerate said:

Very true of course if people are moving sideways house price inflation does not matter but stamp duty does.

 

But how often do people move sideways? Maybe once in retirement. The rest of the time people will usually (want to) move from a smaller property to a larger one as their household grows.

[scottbeard]

2 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

But how often do people move sideways? Maybe once in retirement. The rest of the time people will usually (want to) move from a smaller property to a larger one as their household grows.

If it wasn't for Stamp Duty, they'd probably do it a lot more. 

The existence of Stamp Duty often means that it's not worth applying for a new job, because if it means you have to move house the Stamp Duty cancels out lot of the benefit - Stamp Duty actually hampers the UK job market.

From an economists point of view (Disclaimer: I'm an Economics graduate) It's one of the worst taxes that exists - so much worse than a Land Value Tax would be: a LVT could raise the same amount of money from the same people over the same period, whilst (1) not disincentivising moving and (2) incentivizing old people to downsize and free up houses for the young.

[iamnumerate]

5 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

But how often do people move sideways? Maybe once in retirement. The rest of the time people will usually (want to) move from a smaller property to a larger one as their household grows.

Some people might for work or schooling.  Of course no point doing it to save £1k p.a. in commuting costs if you have to pay £10k in stamp duty.

So it might happen but probably less now.