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I am currently renting, have a good deposit and I’m thinking of making an offer on a house. I had been planning to wait until April and the outworkings of Brexit as I was predicting a no deal exit... but, I became afraid that there’d be a version of the backstop and the NI economy would improve and I’m considering folding... and buying now. Worse still, a new build so they’ll have to put in a kitchen and bathroom to my specification prior to exchanging contracts so I couldn’t really pull out if crashing out of the EU happened. Thoughts?

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Long term renter here too....I have the fear that prices will only ever rise now as I think low interest rates are here to stay....however I'd advise against newbuild houses they're generally not great quality and I suspect many of them won't age well.

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I would just consider that you would be buying when prices are pretty much at a all time high (perhaps except central London), and when sterling is low.

Sadly, it's the exact situation the BoE wants. Fear of missing out for first timers, and those in the game splashing out on their credit cards whilst debt it cheap and the currency going to shit.

Edited by Captain Kirk

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32 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Long term renter here too....I have the fear that prices will only ever rise now as I think low interest rates are here to stay....however I'd advise against newbuild houses they're generally not great quality and I suspect many of them won't age well.

Interesting comet. You do realise all houses were new once. What decade of construction 60's, 70,s etc do you consider to be superior to to days? 

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19 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said:

I would just consider that you would be buying when prices are pretty much at a all time high (perhaps except central London), and when sterling is low.

When my parents were buying, interest rates were at 14%.  When my uncle renovated he spent almost £100k and he was told he was mad.  When I initially started looking to purchase in 2006 I was up against people bidding on properties like they were going out of fashion.  I dodged a bullet there.  However, ever since then and despite the correction, people on here are still saying that a further correction is required.

Is there ever a right time to buy without the benefit of hindsight?

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10 minutes ago, ravedave said:

When my parents were buying, interest rates were at 14%.  When my uncle renovated he spent almost £100k and he was told he was mad.  When I initially started looking to purchase in 2006 I was up against people bidding on properties like they were going out of fashion.  I dodged a bullet there.  However, ever since then and despite the correction, people on here are still saying that a further correction is required.

Is there ever a right time to buy without the benefit of hindsight?

I guess it depends on how big the bubble can be inflated and how much the currency can be destroyed. I think Australia has arrived at that crunch point right now, so I'm watching what happens there.

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Thanks everyone for your replies. Interesting about Oz, that was off my radar. Don’t know what was inflating their economy. 

Also am not sure if the vote last night makes a no deal Brexit more likely. I think most economists, vat one or two, feel that will no deal will be detrimental to the economy

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17 hours ago, BelfastVI said:

Interesting comet. You do realise all houses were new once. What decade of construction 60's, 70,s etc do you consider to be superior to to days? 

- smaller rooms

- smaller gardens / more dense housing

- lots of anecdotal stories about problems cropping up - if a house has been standing say 50 years in good nick that's a pretty good test of build quality

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Also fwiw I think that low interest rates are here to stay, so I think anyone buying should proceed with that assumption.

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18 hours ago, Captain Kirk said:

I would just consider that you would be buying when prices are pretty much at a all time high (perhaps except central London), and when sterling is low.

Why would the value of sterling matter when you're earning and buying in sterling? Are you suggesting loading up on stocks instead?

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42 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Why would the value of sterling matter when you're earning and buying in sterling? Are you suggesting loading up on stocks instead?

If the pound is hit too hard by a 'shock', they'd need to raise rates. Carney warned about it a while ago, not mentioning he created the problem.

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1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

Why would the value of sterling matter when you're earning and buying in sterling? Are you suggesting loading up on stocks instead?

No, not suggesting loading up on stocks. I was thinking along the lines of darkmarket.

46 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

If the pound is hit too hard by a 'shock', they'd need to raise rates. Carney warned about it a while ago, not mentioning he created the problem.

However, the BoE could decide to sacrifice the currency and inflate further.

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1 hour ago, Captain Kirk said:

However, the BoE could decide to sacrifice the currency and inflate further.

I think this is what they'll do.

I don't think we'll ever see high interest rates ever again. To do so would instantly ****** the economy, whereas devaluing the currency gradually ******s the economy so is seen as less painful any perhaps less of the plebs will notice.

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7 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

- smaller rooms

- smaller gardens / more dense housing

- lots of anecdotal stories about problems cropping up - if a house has been standing say 50 years in good nick that's a pretty good test of build quality

Newbuild homes may be pokier than many of the older ones but the suburbs of the last two decades are usually much less dense. Houses tend to be set back from the road, estates have convoluted street plans that waste space, and featureless grassy spaces are ten a penny while functional amenities like parks or playing fields are uncommon. Density can be a good thing, if we go after the american dream of super low density we would all be a fifteen minute drive away from getting a pint of milk- though NI planning policy seems to be going in this direction. Remember if density was such a bad thing Kensington, Edinburgh new town and the majority of London's middle class houses would be considered slums.

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If you view the house as a home rather than an investment tool then go ahead and buy the one you can see yourself living in for a long time and don't worry about it.

 

Nobody can predict the future, if you feel the time is right for you then do it.

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On 14/02/2019 at 14:42, faptastic said:

... but, I became afraid that there’d be a version of the backstop and the NI economy would improve and I’m considering folding... 

… you gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run... 

It is a gamble.

There is a lot of uncertainty over Brexit which could swing things either way.

However, the UK market looks like it has turned down and the Republic's market looks flat. Would we be able to swim against the tide for long.

(did you sing the first sentence to yourself?)

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On 15/02/2019 at 20:00, rattusrattus said:

Newbuild homes may be pokier than many of the older ones but the suburbs of the last two decades are usually much less dense. Houses tend to be set back from the road, estates have convoluted street plans that waste space, and featureless grassy spaces are ten a penny while functional amenities like parks or playing fields are uncommon. Density can be a good thing, if we go after the american dream of super low density we would all be a fifteen minute drive away from getting a pint of milk- though NI planning policy seems to be going in this direction. Remember if density was such a bad thing Kensington, Edinburgh new town and the majority of London's middle class houses would be considered slums.

I wasn't being this extreme, I meant things like smaller gardens in the average newbuild semi vs older semi.

I agree that these large newbuild estates with no facilities on them are horrible and soul destroying and I wouldn't want to live on one.

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Just now, Belfast Boy said:

… you gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, know when to run... 

It is a gamble.

There is a lot of uncertainty over Brexit which could swing things either way.

However, the UK market looks like it has turned down and the Republic's market looks flat. Would we be able to swim against the tide for long.

(did you sing the first sentence to yourself?)

After seeing the last crash, and now watching 6 years of rises back to in some case silly levels, it would seem to me to be sensible to wait for another couple of months and see how the Brexit thing actually plays out.

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On 15/02/2019 at 12:18, JoeDavola said:

- smaller rooms

- smaller gardens / more dense housing

- lots of anecdotal stories about problems cropping up - if a house has been standing say 50 years in good nick that's a pretty good test of build quality

+1 I bought  a 1975 built brick house. Pretty good compared to new build quality in same area.

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On 15/02/2019 at 12:18, JoeDavola said:

- smaller rooms

- smaller gardens / more dense housing

- lots of anecdotal stories about problems cropping up - if a house has been standing say 50 years in good nick that's a pretty good test of build quality

As well as building a lot of houses I have also has to demolish lots. All the old Belfast housing I replaced was replaced at a lower density. Most of the old houses had a small back yard and no garden. They were also smaller. There are fine examples of period houses that will stand the test of time however the majority had no cavity, no insulation, single glazing and no treated timber. The building control regs were of a dramatically lower standard. 

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22 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

After seeing the last crash, and now watching 6 years of rises back to in some case silly levels, it would seem to me to be sensible to wait for another couple of months and see how the Brexit thing actually plays out.

I can't see a down side to that. It has surprised me that the whole Brexit issue hasn't had a bigger impact on house prices and sales. Or perhaps it has and  prices would have increased more only for it but I find that hard to believe.

Whilst we are only one builder our sales since the start of the year have been our best ever. I cant really explain it. I honestly expected the uncertainty of what is going to happen with Brexit to put people off making big decisions. I was completely wrong about that.

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9 hours ago, BelfastVI said:

As well as building a lot of houses I have also has to demolish lots. All the old Belfast housing I replaced was replaced at a lower density. Most of the old houses had a small back yard and no garden. They were also smaller. There are fine examples of period houses that will stand the test of time however the majority had no cavity, no insulation, single glazing and no treated timber. The building control regs were of a dramatically lower standard. 

Cant compare some shacks over donegal road with everything built now. I'd rather live in a 1970 semi than one of the 950 sq foot slave boxes built now. 

 

But oh look it has an ensuite.

Edited by 2buyornot2buy

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1 hour ago, BelfastVI said:

I can't see a down side to that. It has surprised me that the whole Brexit issue hasn't had a bigger impact on house prices and sales. Or perhaps it has and  prices would have increased more only for it but I find that hard to believe.

Whilst we are only one builder our sales since the start of the year have been our best ever. I cant really explain it. I honestly expected the uncertainty of what is going to happen with Brexit to put people off making big decisions. I was completely wrong about that.

I think most people just don't think about things like Brexit - if they have access to the credit they go for it.

Considering credit can't get much cheaper than it already is, I don't foresee a massive jump in prices immediately post-Brexit; so if Brexit does turn out to be highly beneficial for NI you can move quickly and buy something post-Brexit.

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1 hour ago, BelfastVI said:

As well as building a lot of houses I have also has to demolish lots. All the old Belfast housing I replaced was replaced at a lower density. Most of the old houses had a small back yard and no garden. They were also smaller. There are fine examples of period houses that will stand the test of time however the majority had no cavity, no insulation, single glazing and no treated timber. The building control regs were of a dramatically lower standard. 

Perhaps my idea of an 'old house' is a few rungs up the ladder from that - I was thinking of the like of the semi's that I grew up in as a child, each of which had gardens the size of which you'd just not get in a new build these days. And they were both walking distance to school so quite centrally located.

I've never lived in an old terraced house but I've heard reports that some of them cost a fortune to heat.

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  • 298 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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