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Speed1987

Brexit bounce? If we strike a last minute deal.

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At the moment house prices are not seeing the growth of previous years, as we are planning to leave the EU.

However it just doesn't seem realistic that we will leave with no deal, imagine the shock to the German car market and other EU industries which will suffer.

The pound has been suppressed every since the inital talk of leaving the EU.

So house prices are cheaper, as immigration is reducing, EU nationals are returning home. 

Let's say the UK, gets its cake with a cherry on top, sensible immigration from the EU or even complete control over it. May has set her deal out but in the last weeks, she may come back to the public with a new deal.

Could we see a quick bounce in house prices maybe even going up as much as 10%? What are people's thoughts? 

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16 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

Let's say the UK, gets its cake with a cherry on top, sensible immigration from the EU or even complete control over it. May has set her deal out but in the last weeks, she may come back to the public with a new deal.

Could we see a quick bounce in house prices maybe even going up as much as 10%? What are people's thoughts? 

The two aren't mutually exclusive.  A wonder Brexit doesn't address buying and selling piles of bricks for ever increasing amounts of money being the economy isn't a good recipe for long term prospects, irrespective of any wage inflation improving affordability.

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Non-EU immigration into the UK has been at historic highs. 

We've seen a fall in EU immigration but the majority still come from outside the EU and that number is still increasing isn't it? 

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They will impact on each other, if we end up staying in the EU, with controlled immigration. It may well not be a good for the average millennial however for boomers they will be rubbing their hads with glee.

 

It's the land and local infrastructure your paying for really and not the actual house.

House prices have always risen, often with monetary inflation which helped people overcome debt faster. I guess now we just don't have as many levers to increase prices as there were in years gone by... I'm surprised to see the banks offering extended interest only mortgages to older people, they are basically renting to them now... I just feel the goverment and banks are so desperate they'll do anything to stop the market tanking. 

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1 minute ago, byron78 said:

Non-EU immigration into the UK has been at historic highs. 

We've seen a fall in EU immigration but the majority still come from outside the EU and that number is still increasing isn't it? 

Exactly and when we trade with Africa, and China, they are going to ask for even more Visas, so we are just...

Trading EU immigration for Asian and African.

My understanding is 500,000 are from rest of world, 500,000 was from EU which has not sustainably decreased.

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3 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

Exactly and when we trade with Africa, and China, they are going to ask for even more Visas, so we are just...

Trading EU immigration for Asian and African.

My understanding is 500,000 are from rest of world, 500,000 was from EU which has not sustainably decreased.

No idea about visas, but foreign born population is about 8M now I think. 

Vast majority from outside the EU (think Ireland Poland and Germany are the most common sources of immigration from within the EU). 

So yeah. You're right. We could have stopped the majority of immigration without leaving the EU. Always have been able to. Still could of course. 

But then we'd soon run out of doctors/nurses and a lot of other professionals. 

A lot of this is a hangover from the 80s when we closed dental colleges and training centres for all sorts of vocations in favour of shipping labour in. 

Helped Thatcher smash the unions. And berks like me still voted for her... 

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1 hour ago, byron78 said:

Non-EU immigration into the UK has been at historic highs. 

We've seen a fall in EU immigration but the majority still come from outside the EU and that number is still increasing isn't it? 

No that number is decreasing, but it is debatable how long they can stop people coming if they want trade deals with certain countries 

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I realised what a sham the immigration system was when working as a teacher. Genuine decent people who had suffered persecution, were educated, had respectful kids, but were foolish enough to be honest on forms and go through proper channels got deported as easy targets to make a point. In contrast some terrible individuals who were dishonest and evasive were left alone. 

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2 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

At the moment house prices are not seeing the growth of previous years, as we are planning to leave the EU.

However it just doesn't seem realistic that we will leave with no deal, imagine the shock to the German car market and other EU industries which will suffer.

The pound has been suppressed every since the inital talk of leaving the EU.

So house prices are cheaper, as immigration is reducing, EU nationals are returning home. 

Let's say the UK, gets its cake with a cherry on top, sensible immigration from the EU or even complete control over it. May has set her deal out but in the last weeks, she may come back to the public with a new deal.

Could we see a quick bounce in house prices maybe even going up as much as 10%? What are people's thoughts? 

House prices are going down with or without Brexit.

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2 hours ago, byron78 said:

Non-EU immigration into the UK has been at historic highs. 

We've seen a fall in EU immigration but the majority still come from outside the EU and that number is still increasing isn't it? 

It’s not a good idea.. 

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1 hour ago, prozac said:

No that number is decreasing, but it is debatable how long they can stop people coming if they want trade deals with certain countries 

Is it? 

 

 

_104542789_overall.migration-nc.png

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27 minutes ago, macca13 said:

It’s not a good idea.. 

One of the arguments about leaving the EU (I did vote Leave btw) that I didn't understand was the immigration one. 

Non-EU immigration in the UK has always been around at least twice what we take from the the EU. 

It was never the EU that was the problem there. No idea why some presented it as such. It was successive (since at least the 50s) UK governmental policy that was the problem....

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It will be pretty much impossible to control immigration while in the EU, because anyone the EU lets in will be able to move to the UK after a while. Even if the UK has some control over that right now, it's going to be eliminated in the not-too-distant future, because you can't have a European superstate with borders between nations. The whole point of the EU is to concentrate power in the centre.

It's like Quebec's immigration system over here. Anyone who applies to immigrate to Quebec has to pass the Quebec immigration rules, but anyone can bypass that by immigrating to Toronto and then moving to Quebec. The whole Quebec system is just window-dressing to convince the French to support immigration.

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I also find it disturbing that people are buying high end property, right now, in London.

If we left, with no deal and turmoil set in, which I don't believe will happen, house prices crashed say 30%...

Why are Billionaires doing stuff like this? 95 million pound property just before we leave the EU surely he could of waited? Does he anticipate growth, it's just an odd move to make right now. Maybe he doesn't care if he looses 25 million, however that is unlikely.

https://www.ft.com/content/4e46b886-1ca2-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65

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5 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

I also find it disturbing that people are buying high end property, right now, in London.

If we left, with no deal and turmoil set in, which I don't believe will happen, house prices crashed say 30%...

Why are Billionaires doing stuff like this? 95 million pound property just before we leave the EU surely he could of waited? Does he anticipate growth, it's just an odd move to make right now. Maybe he doesn't care if he looses 25 million, however that is unlikely.

https://www.ft.com/content/4e46b886-1ca2-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65

Baron Rothschild, an 18th century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with saying that "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."

 

He should know. Rothschild made a fortune buying in the panic that followed the Battle of Waterloo against Napoleon. But that's not the whole story. The original quote is believed to be "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.

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3 hours ago, byron78 said:

Oh and this. 

Number of foreign buyers of prime property in London has actually tripled since Brexit:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/02/uk-housing-market-is-a-goldmine-for-wealthy-foreign-buyers

A weaker pound probably does mean more of this sort of thing longterm as well. 

That guardian article is just a London property ramping advert. A lender called Octane Capital, I expect them to be one of the first lenders to be in trouble when it hits the fan

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16 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

I also find it disturbing that people are buying high end property, right now, in London.

If we left, with no deal and turmoil set in, which I don't believe will happen, house prices crashed say 30%...

Why are Billionaires doing stuff like this? 95 million pound property just before we leave the EU surely he could of waited? Does he anticipate growth, it's just an odd move to make right now. Maybe he doesn't care if he looses 25 million, however that is unlikely.

https://www.ft.com/content/4e46b886-1ca2-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65

I should imagine that a lot of the foreign money buying up London is non EU money so they can see the bigger picture for the UK of life outside the EU. Over here people have become so obsessed with the EU even the sensible are being conditioned to fear life without the EU after 2.5 years of fearmongering by british media. It is the fear of non EU life like going around the shops at 5 years old without your mummy. But we were doing this before the EU ever existed.

 

And this amount of money in uk property is obviously looking beyond the noise and fear and a vote of confidence in the future success of the UK after brexit as an independent sovereign nation

Edited by bear.getting.old

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48 minutes ago, byron78 said:

One of the arguments about leaving the EU (I did vote Leave btw) that I didn't understand was the immigration one. 

Non-EU immigration in the UK has always been around at least twice what we take from the the EU. 

It was never the EU that was the problem there. No idea why some presented it as such. It was successive (since at least the 50s) UK governmental policy that was the problem....

Getting rid of the EU migration at the time of the vote would have still halved total immigration in, but I don't think it was all about immigration, it was about taking back control...

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38 minutes ago, MarkG said:

It will be pretty much impossible to control immigration while in the EU, because anyone the EU lets in will be able to move to the UK after a while.

I wonder how much of the EU inward figure includes people who have moved to the EU from outside it, and then on to the UK. 

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I think it is much more likely they will extend the deadline 3 months which would be perfect for a HPC, it will kill any spring bounce dead. I do however expect a ‘surprise’ bump in GDP caused by individuals and companies bringing purchases forward whilst stockpiling.

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2 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

Getting rid of the EU migration at the time of the vote would have still halved total immigration in, but I don't think it was all about immigration, it was about taking back control...

Yes. 

Was about taking back control for me. 

I'm now looking at the inept, incompetent, and frankly self-serving government I'm handing more control back to of course and... 

Christ.

We're fked aren't we? 

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6 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

Could we see a quick bounce in house prices maybe even going up as much as 10%? What are people's thoughts? 

I think it could lead to a small bounce (that could just be in the form of prices falling at a slower rate than otherwise - it could still mean prices continuing to fall faster than last month/quarter/year!), but a 10% rise seems unlikely. I don't see how prices will rise at a rate of 10% per year (by quick bounce I assume you mean within a year or less) before there has been a significant correction.

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My basic high level take on all this was:

Good Brexit = pound goes up = inflation down = rates low

Bad Brexit = ERPT inlfation up (short term impact of 12 months), possibly higher rate of core inflation but low rates and all sorts thrown at the 'economy' (houses) to keep things moving and not stalling = rates low. 

I used Brexit taking the wind out of the sales of the property market as my time to buy (just over a year after the vote). Not saying that's right or wrong but even with a bad Brexit it is only a matter of time before other deals are struck and things move forward. Potentially a lower entry point if you hold out. 

WE all have our money where our mouth is so all I can say is good luck all :). 

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