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shortbread

Large scale affordable house building can single-handedly prop up the UK economy!

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Craney's comments today 

Quote

The Bank of England expects growth this year to be the slowest since 2009. It is forecasting growth of 1.2% this year, down from its previous forecast of 1.7% made in November.

As expected the Bank kept interest rates on hold at 0.75%.

The Bank put the fall in growth down to a decline in business investment and housebuilding, as well as a halving of the growth rate in exports.

While he has been an absolute disaster for the UK economy, why exactly is house-building slowing down?

There is a major housing crisis in the country and not building for more than a decade has resulted in a shortage crisis! The ones being built by powerful builders are out of the reach for most public. 

THEN WHY SHOULD HOUSE-BUILDING SLOW DOWN, With or Without Brexit!

The Government should remove all stops at boosting house building, attract talent into the industry with short term vocational courses and apprenticeships, open up more green areas to be built up, cap house prices, provide schemes to new buyers........ and start a housing revolution that the UK desperately needs.

The demand will create jobs and re-ignite the economy. There are millions of renters who could divert their monthly rents towards owning a home that is 'sensibly' priced. If the traditional building companies are reluctant because of a fall in their 50% margins, then find investors and builders elsewhere.

This will also save the Tories and win them some faith from working families and young professionals.

It's Win Win, sod the builders and land-lords who do the nation's economy absolutely no good!

 

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, shortbread said:

There is a major housing crisis in the country and not building for more than a decade has resulted in a shortage crisis! The ones being built by powerful builders are out of the reach for most public. 

THEN WHY SHOULD HOUSE-BUILDING SLOW DOWN, With or Without Brexit!

Well, the house builders, with their bumper profits and bonuses, may not build so much now because of Brexit. This may damage the housing bubble. Without the housing bubble there is no wealth effect and people will stop spending. The only solution is suppressed rates and QE to try and reflate the bubble.

Yes, the BoE are full of $hit. Your solution is way too sensible.

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2 hours ago, shortbread said:

The Government should remove all stops at boosting house building, attract talent into the industry with short term vocational courses and apprenticeships, open up more green areas to be built up, cap house prices, provide schemes to new buyers........ and start a housing revolution that the UK desperately needs.

That's the last thing the UK needs. What it desperately needs is fewer people so less demand for housing, as well as the rest of the grotesque vandalism that goes under the name of development. Anyone whose stomach isn't turned by the idea of more building on green areas doesn't deserve to live here. At best it's a necessary evil that can only be tolerated if it goes hand in hand with ensuring that that's it, this catch-up that we've very foolishly made necessary and will not keep progressing in that direction.

Edited by Riedquat

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Ban the practice of restricting supply by land banking.

Any land that obtains PP has to be built on within 12 months of obtaining PP or the land is forfeited.

Simple.

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2 hours ago, shortbread said:

THEN WHY SHOULD HOUSE-BUILDING SLOW DOWN, With or Without Brexit!

Because if houses are selling more slowly builders will slow the build programme - the last thing they want is standing stock which is a target for vandalism and often has to be protected by security cameras / staff 

2 hours ago, shortbread said:

The Government should remove all stops at boosting house building, attract talent into the industry with short term vocational courses and apprenticeships,

apprenticeships should certainly be offered - the problem is schools seem to encourage kids to go to uni to do worthless soft degrees that will be valueless in the job market - a mate of mine's son was told that if he did not work hard at school he would end up on a building site - 

His response? - Miss my dad is a bricklayer he earns £275 a day how much do you earn? 

2 hours ago, shortbread said:

open up more green areas to be built up,

No - green spaces should be protected - the wildlife is a vital part of this country - birds butterflies bees hedgehogs etc I do not want to live in place like many Asian cities where there is no green space 

Green spaces are part of the heritage of this country - stop immigration unless people have real skills and do not just work in a coffee shop and get rid of illegals stop reduce the need for more and more housing

2 hours ago, shortbread said:

cap house prices,

Not possible - the market dictates price by supply and demand - builders build that equation into their purchase of land - why would a builder bother of they cannot maximise profits they are commercial business not local authorities - no one is going to sell a product for less than they can achieve

what happens when this price capped house is bought - a person could buy a house at a capped price then sell in the future at a profit - ideal for investors and huge pension funds to flood in and take all the new stock

what else could be capped? cars? they are unaffordable for some people?  restaurant prices? they are unaffordable for some people? beer? that is unaffordable for some people? baked beans?

2 hours ago, shortbread said:

provide schemes to new buyers

They have - and H2B is slated here all the time - no new schemes will enable everyone to be a home owner and those who are unable  to buy will be critisising you and saying that you are mad the same way they do people who have used H2B   - any scheme that increases the number of people who can buy increases demand and therefore price and so the cycle continues 

If all incentives were dropped it would reduce demand and prices would fall 

2 hours ago, shortbread said:

This will also save the Tories and win them some faith from working families and young professionals.

Vote labour everything will be free including a free flight to Tunisia to cry and bow and pay homage at a terrorist's grave

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5 minutes ago, happyguy said:

Vote labour everything will be free including a free flight to Tunisia to cry and bow and pay homage at a terrorist's grave

Start by building a million council houses to eliminate homelessness and bring down demand in the private sector.

End the Right to Buy.

End the practice of land banking.

Give councils the ability to raise money to fund local housing development.

Introduce new rules on minimum space standards.

Introduce rent controls and secure tenancies.

Any more? Yes, quite a bit. It's all here:  https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/secure-homes-for-all/

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9 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Start by building a million council houses to eliminate homelessness and bring down demand in the private sector.

End the Right to Buy.

End the practice of land banking.

Give councils the ability to raise money to fund local housing development.

Introduce new rules on minimum space standards.

Introduce rent controls and secure tenancies.

Any more? Yes, quite a bit. It's all here:  https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/secure-homes-for-all/

 

You forgot to mention this part of Labour's manifesto -

We will guarantee Help to Buy funding until 2027 to give long-term certainty to both first-time buyers and the housebuilding industry.

In other words Labour will continue the now largely discredited Help to Buy policy, which acts as a prop to house prices and inflates the profits of house builders.  UNTIL 2027!!!  Unfortunately, for this alone they will not have my vote.

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Sorry to be boring but houses are not being built because house builders are better off restricting supply in a 'slow' market to prevent pressure downward on prices.

Solution:  move most of the government's tax requirement onto land, according to planning status and NOT on whether the land is occupied, built on or vacant.  That means all the 'value' locked up in land becomes a liability not an asset to an under-utilizing owner, and they will have to properly use it, rent it or sell it.  No more land banking.

Suddenly we will see all land zoned for housing being built on and sold / rented with the eventual house price /rent being just the costs of assembling the bricks and mortar / general upkeep for rental but the occupant will have a much higher council tax bill (probably paid directly through PAYE so it isn't so visible).

Nothing else removes the rentiers, hoarders and parasites as effectively with no loopholes or unintended consequences which price caps and subsidies and 'help' always introduce.

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I'll be voting labour, but only because I now want a crash and burn.  Groundhog days since 2008 are getting wearing.

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2 minutes ago, ElPapasito said:

Sorry to be boring but houses are not being built because house builders are better off restricting supply in a 'slow' market to prevent pressure downward on prices.

Solution:  move most of the government's tax requirement onto land, according to planning status and NOT on whether the land is occupied, built on or vacant.  That means all the 'value' locked up in land becomes a liability not an asset to an under-utilizing owner, and they will have to properly use it, rent it or sell it.  No more land banking.

Suddenly we will see all land zoned for housing being built on and sold / rented with the eventual house price /rent being just the costs of assembling the bricks and mortar / general upkeep for rental but the occupant will have a much higher council tax bill (probably paid directly through PAYE so it isn't so visible).

Nothing else removes the rentiers, hoarders and parasites as effectively with no loopholes or unintended consequences which price caps and subsidies and 'help' always introduce.

+1

But I wouldn't say 'no land banking', rather say 'no un-taxed land banking'.  

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Just now, Ballyk said:

 

You forgot to mention this part of Labour's manifesto -

We will guarantee Help to Buy funding until 2027 to give long-term certainty to both first-time buyers and the housebuilding industry.

In other words Labour will continue the now largely discredited Help to Buy policy, which acts as a prop to house prices and inflates the profits of house builders.  UNTIL 2027!!!  Unfortunately, for this alone they will not have my vote.

Help to Buy is about reassuring the home builders more than anything else. The UK needs to build a minimum of 250,000 new homes/yr to accommodate the growing population. If the scale of the subsidy is modest then I don't have a problem with it. It won't inflate house prices because interest rates will be rising at the same time, stretching affordability.

 

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14 minutes ago, ElPapasito said:

Sorry to be boring but houses are not being built because house builders are better off restricting supply in a 'slow' market to prevent pressure downward on prices.

Solution:  move most of the government's tax requirement onto land, according to planning status and NOT on whether the land is occupied, built on or vacant.  That means all the 'value' locked up in land becomes a liability not an asset to an under-utilizing owner, and they will have to properly use it, rent it or sell it.  No more land banking.

Suddenly we will see all land zoned for housing being built on and sold / rented with the eventual house price /rent being just the costs of assembling the bricks and mortar / general upkeep for rental but the occupant will have a much higher council tax bill (probably paid directly through PAYE so it isn't so visible).

Nothing else removes the rentiers, hoarders and parasites as effectively with no loopholes or unintended consequences which price caps and subsidies and 'help' always introduce.

Corbyn and McDonnell have certainly entertained the idea of a land value tax (see the garden tax proposals from 2017) but I suspect have rejected it at this point as too radical for a first parliament.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/22/labour-says-land-value-tax-would-boost-local-government-budgets

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4 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Help to Buy is about reassuring the home builders more than anything else. The UK needs to build a minimum of 250,000 new homes/yr to accommodate the growing population. If the scale of the subsidy is modest then I don't have a problem with it. It won't inflate house prices because interest rates will be rising at the same time, stretching affordability.

 

You need to read this - 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-6660745/Housebuilders-pay-record-2-6-BILLION-investors-despite-housing-shortage.html

And - 

https://www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2017/oct/21/help-to-buy-property-new-build-price-rise

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The government should do nothing except grant more planning permissions.  Your initial premise that there is a housing shortage is not one that I recognise either.

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I can't see anybody voting for large scale house building, most Britians feel the country is over populated. Building houses is a sensible answer but then, if we did that house prices would fall massively. That would encourage defaults and people would go back to relying on the state for housing.

The goverment, doesn't want to have to pay public servants to deal with tenants, who often damage the property and don't pay rent.

The incentive is, buy your own house and maintain it and we the goverment will give you a return for doing so. 

In the case of Brexit, I see the most likely outcome, that the banks will allow some inflation maybe some QE, to further erode the debts of home owners, so they have more money to consume.

In addition, most MPs own houses themselves and are landlords, you wouldn't vote to decrease your own assessts, it's often completely unforeseen when crashes happen.

House builders, have to make enough money to build the property, on the land with a substantial profit, to make it worth while for everybody plus any unforeseen consequences. Inflation is going up so the trades men are now demanding even more money, which is passed onto the buyer.

If the government were to reduce house prices by policy, the cost to the state would also be pensioners who need care, which are often forced to sell their house to pay for care and poverty who use equity release options. Way higher taxes for everyone.

What's the answer who knows? 

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2 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

Inflation is going up so the trades men are now demanding even more money, which is passed onto the buyer.

 

Price too high and no work will be offered.

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29 minutes ago, happyguy said:

LOL 

Still trolling away and not yet got the life you've been advised to try and get for yourself?

Still losing sleep about your current situation?

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1 hour ago, chronyx said:

I'll be voting labour, but only because I now want a crash and burn.  Groundhog days since 2008 are getting wearing.

You have to vote to cause as much $hit as possible. That's the only way voting has any effect.

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8 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

I can't see anybody voting for large scale house building, most Britians feel the country is over populated. Building houses is a sensible answer but then, if we did that house prices would fall massively. That would encourage defaults and people would go back to relying on the state for housing.

The goverment, doesn't want to have to pay public servants to deal with tenants, who often damage the property and don't pay rent.

The incentive is, buy your own house and maintain it and we the goverment will give you a return for doing so.

1.  A fall in house prices is what everyone (except retirees) wants - lower prices benefit 1st time buyers and anyone wanting to move up the 'ladder'.  Most people have at least 25% equity in their houses and could absorb a 25% fall in the price level.  Banks are now just about financially strong enough to cope too.

2.  It's not the role of government to give anyone a return on their property.  The market should decide.  All the government 'props' have been trying to hold up house prices, but these artificial supports are beginning to creak...

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5 hours ago, shortbread said:

Craney's comments today 

While he has been an absolute disaster for the UK economy, why exactly is house-building slowing down?

There is a major housing crisis in the country and not building for more than a decade has resulted in a shortage crisis! The ones being built by powerful builders are out of the reach for most public. 

THEN WHY SHOULD HOUSE-BUILDING SLOW DOWN, With or Without Brexit!

The Government should remove all stops at boosting house building, attract talent into the industry with short term vocational courses and apprenticeships, open up more green areas to be built up, cap house prices, provide schemes to new buyers........ and start a housing revolution that the UK desperately needs.

The demand will create jobs and re-ignite the economy. There are millions of renters who could divert their monthly rents towards owning a home that is 'sensibly' priced. If the traditional building companies are reluctant because of a fall in their 50% margins, then find investors and builders elsewhere.

This will also save the Tories and win them some faith from working families and young professionals.

It's Win Win, sod the builders and land-lords who do the nation's economy absolutely no good!

 

 

 

 

 

I can see why landlords would initially lose out if the government capped house prices, but wouldn't this be damaging in the long term?

For example, would it attract new purchases from landlords because of the improved yields?

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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