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crazypabs

Evening Standard change their tune

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For ever and and day the evening standard home and property section have been bigging up house prices. I never thought a bad word could be said. 

However, on my jolly tube ride home after a 14hr shift what am I blessed with on the front page of this dreamers supplement...

House prices falling by £3000 a minute

Wowza

 

received_2294643160588061.jpeg

Edited by crazypabs
Typo

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32 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

For ever and and day the evening standard home and property section have been bigging up house prices. I never thought a bad word could be said. 

However, on my jolly tube ride home after a 14hr shift what am I blessed with on the front page of this dreamers supplement...

House prices falling by £3000 a minute

Wowza

 

received_2294643160588061.jpeg

14hr shift wow  i hope 7 of those are double bubble. 

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Obviously their business to be sensationalist when it suits them and they've done a cracking job this time - I'm guessing that figure has been derived from the cumulative losses of all property in the city based on periodic falls.

I wonder how many BTL-scumlord heart attacks that little gem has precipitated 😛

Edited by ftb_fml

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I’ve stopped reading the Standard and Metro. Both have too many advertorial articles particularly around property. The Metro weekly HTB feature was always a particular highlight. I remember one young person being quoted saying “Crossrail will increase the value of my investment”. I don’t know anyone that speaks like that. 😊

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From reading Shiller, it's routine behaviour for media to hype the market during while prices are climbing and hype the crash on the way down. It's known as a pump-and-dump scam elsewhere.

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11 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

Obviously their business to be sensationalist when it suits them and they've done a cracking job this time - I'm guessing that figure has been derived from the cumulative losses of all property in the city based on periodic falls.

No it hasn't at all - has no-one on here actually gone to READ the article?

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/buying/new-homes/londons-bestvalue-commuter-destinations-property-prices-drop-3000-with-each-minute-you-travel-out-of-a127711.html

It's saying that for every minute of extra commuting time, prices are £3k lower:

Quote

London's best-value commuter destinations:property prices drop £3,000 with each minute you travel out of the city

This is not HPC material, if anything it's trying to encourage people to commute long distances into London

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3 hours ago, scottbeard said:

No it hasn't at all - has no-one on here actually gone to READ the article?

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/buying/new-homes/londons-bestvalue-commuter-destinations-property-prices-drop-3000-with-each-minute-you-travel-out-of-a127711.html

It's saying that for every minute of extra commuting time, prices are £3k lower:

This is not HPC material, if anything it's trying to encourage people to commute long distances into London

Guilty as charged.. same old tripe then :(

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5 hours ago, darkmarket said:

From reading Shiller, it's routine behaviour for media to hype the market during while prices are climbing and hype the crash on the way down. It's known as a pump-and-dump scam elsewhere.

Agreed but it surprises me it's by the es, being that it is owned by a Russian billionaire who must have friends in property.

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So move another 30min away from London to save £90k. That extra commuting distance will probably add £2k onto the season ticket cost, so over a 30 year mortgage you will pay an extra £60k on trains so the saving is £30k. In time that longer train journey will cost you 1 hour a day x 220 working days per year x 30 year mortgage = 6600 hours. Works out to earning £4.54 for every hour you sit on a train instead of seeing your family.

Edited by Dorkins

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1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

So move another 30min away from London to save £90k. That extra commuting distance will probably add £2k onto the season ticket cost, so over a 30 year mortgage you will pay an extra £60k on trains so the saving is £30k. In time that longer train journey will cost you 1 hour a day x 220 working days per year x 30 year mortgage = 6600 hours. Works out to earning £4.54 for every hour you sit on a train instead of seeing your family.

But to be fair, the areas further out of the centre might be nicer for other reasons than just pure cost.

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56 minutes ago, Henrik said:

But to be fair, the areas further out of the centre might be nicer for other reasons than just pure cost.

In the end it will all be captured in the price. The London+commutable property market is very efficient in that sense, all plus and minus factors like commuting time and pleasantness of area are reflected in house prices. There are no bargains to be had.

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1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

In the end it will all be captured in the price. The London+commutable property market is very efficient in that sense, all plus and minus factors like commuting time and pleasantness of area are reflected in house prices. There are no bargains to be had.

This is very true.  However, I have posted before that the optimal commute is 30-60 minutes in London.  I think under 30 minutes is getting to the point where you live to close to the office and do not benefit from the change of scene at weekends.  Under 60 minutes and you are wasting little productive time (thinking and reflection time/emails/planning/winding up and down on the commute all can be positive). 

However, here's a few lesser known factors that are rarely considered in this free market pricing:

1) Freehold vs Leasehold - Personally, I've no idea why freehold does not have a far larger premium in a free housing market than it currently does. One reason I live outside the M25 is that I won't touch leasehold in any form!  I want to own property without still being a subservient rule and bill taker for a a property I supposedly "own".  Freehold the norm the further out you go. 

2) Hype factors - some towns have reputations a little ahead of the reality of living there, discussed many times in Surrey threads where there is an acknowledged "Guildford premium" of about 20% over the surrounding Surrey that confuses new posters.   But that's how free markets work and why advertising professionals constantly use the word "brand".  Some commuting towns and brands have become effectively brands with images that are different to their real-world valuation base solely on their benefits and pitfalls

3)  Rail franchise failings - notably Southern/SouthWestern rail failings, and the alternative ways to commute from a location (some stations have having two lines to London or a reliable bus) when there is a problem

4)  Getting a seat on the train every morning/evening (30-60 minutes far easier in a resting seated position).  Not priced in as most people dont realise the situation until they have travelled a few times, so its not a known factor in the determination of price at a bidding stage

5) Child related factors.  With the cost of moving so prohibitive the UK, there's a big premium to living somewhere that continues to suit your kids as they age.  I'm not thinking school catchments which is definitely priced in.  I'm thinking the growing scientific evidence of diesel engines and childhood asthma (probably the next health scare akin to tobacco) making "leafyness" of suburbs more attractive in the years ahead.  Also availability of childminders etc.  

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While the original post misunderstood the ES headline - this opinion piece from their regular business contributor Anthony Hilton in yesterday's edition is more hpc friendly:

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/anthony-hilton-blame-the-banks-for-house-price-surge-as-lending-soars-a4060451.html

"Housing has become financialised. People now buy hoping to make money rather than find somewhere to live. Council houses sold off by Thatcher are bought by landlords who make money at market rates while councils have waiting lists. Inequality is rising fast."

 

"To repeat, mortgage lending has gone from 25% to 75% of bank assets since the Eighties. Finance for business is now down to around 10%.

The Government could have leant against this pressure and restrained banks. But they went the other way. They decided the problem was demand and introduced Help to Buy, thereby adding a subsidy to make lending even cheaper. Builders made fabulous profits, homebuyers had to dig even deeper."

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9 hours ago, lostinessex said:

While the original post misunderstood the ES headline - this opinion piece from their regular business contributor Anthony Hilton in yesterday's edition is more hpc friendly:

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/anthony-hilton-blame-the-banks-for-house-price-surge-as-lending-soars-a4060451.html

"Housing has become financialised. People now buy hoping to make money rather than find somewhere to live. Council houses sold off by Thatcher are bought by landlords who make money at market rates while councils have waiting lists. Inequality is rising fast."

 

"To repeat, mortgage lending has gone from 25% to 75% of bank assets since the Eighties. Finance for business is now down to around 10%.

The Government could have leant against this pressure and restrained banks. But they went the other way. They decided the problem was demand and introduced Help to Buy, thereby adding a subsidy to make lending even cheaper. Builders made fabulous profits, homebuyers had to dig even deeper."

 

As Mayor Royce says in The Wire, that's some shameful s**t right there.

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22 hours ago, Dorkins said:

So move another 30min away from London to save £90k. That extra commuting distance will probably add £2k onto the season ticket cost, so over a 30 year mortgage you will pay an extra £60k on trains so the saving is £30k. In time that longer train journey will cost you 1 hour a day x 220 working days per year x 30 year mortgage = 6600 hours. Works out to earning £4.54 for every hour you sit on a train instead of seeing your family.

Did you factor in the lower interest paid across the life of the mortgage when commuting from cheaper house>?

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1 minute ago, bear.getting.old said:

Did you factor in the lower interest paid across the life of the mortgage when commuting from cheaper house>?

No. I guess that might get the extra part of the train journey up to NMW.

Edited by Dorkins

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So in conclusion its cheaper to buy near your work then, and less stress and more family time. I still wouldn't mind sitting on a train for nearly £5 an hour though, you can relax and surf the net on your laptop

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On 08/02/2019 at 18:51, bear.getting.old said:

So in conclusion its cheaper to buy near your work then, and less stress and more family time. I still wouldn't mind sitting on a train for nearly £5 an hour though, you can relax and surf the net on your laptop

Depends when you're travelling - peak time on a lot of services, you'd be lucky to even get a seat. And in the North West, the antiquated Northern Rail trains don't even have wi-fi.

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On ‎08‎/‎02‎/‎2019 at 18:51, bear.getting.old said:

So in conclusion its cheaper to buy near your work then, and less stress and more family time. I still wouldn't mind sitting on a train for nearly £5 an hour though, you can relax and surf the net on your laptop

I'd like to have read this article. The headline doesn't seem sensationalist enough for certain areas.

I live 17 minutes out of Waterloo (when SWR are running ok), and the average price here is a lot more than £51k cheaper than central London. On the same line, Woking is about 25 minutes out, and again the price differential is much more than £75k. 

I guess it might work out on some commuter lines, but I would have thought that Surrey would be closer priced to London than the other traditional commuting areas. 

 

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5 minutes ago, worried1 said:

I'd like to have read this article. The headline doesn't seem sensationalist enough for certain areas.

I live 17 minutes out of Waterloo (when SWR are running ok), and the average price here is a lot more than £51k cheaper than central London. On the same line, Woking is about 25 minutes out, and again the price differential is much more than £75k. 

I guess it might work out on some commuter lines, but I would have thought that Surrey would be closer priced to London than the other traditional commuting areas. 

 

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/buying/new-homes/londons-bestvalue-commuter-destinations-property-prices-drop-3000-with-each-minute-you-travel-out-of-a127711.html

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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