Bruce Banner Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 17 minutes ago, simon2 said: I don't think the wait is over personally. Prices are falling, in the areas that I see. But at present this is just dropping to a rung or two below. On my watchlist places are still being snapped up pretty quickly if priced under the current market asking prices (which is still full of people trying desperately to ask for last years prices). For a real crash to happen, either sentiment has to turn much more, and there needs to be larger barriers against high prices. I think the first is difficult, after all, people need somewhere to live. A lot of people on the site here would regard getting a house valued at £350,000 today for £250,000 next year as a success, even though that price is still way above what it was 10 years ago. There is only so much you can wait, and the likelihood of a 'soft landing' (in which the decline is gained via no nominal price movements or small decreases over a long period) seems much more palatable to the government. The second part is that credit is still easy to come by. I believe there is a lot of pent up demand waiting at lower prices both from OO and BTL, and they can get the finance. Higher interest rates would be a powerful force because people simply wouldn't be able to afford the repayments even if they wanted the house or the yields won't stack up. Snapped up?...... ah yes . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happyguy Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 12 hours ago, 2rocketman said: sellers will out number buyers and it will trigger the collapse. I am sure someone will repost this if I am wrong, I even will if I remember but I can feel it, this is different! The next 12 months is going to be a bit tasty. Prices have fallen in the last year but the result is that many people have decided not to sell. Rightmove report fewer listings now than at any time in the last 5 years. There will always be people who want to buy and not pay rent/who have to buy etc. The lack of stock will probably prevent huge falls. Personally I do not care as I have no intention of moving and thankfully zero mortgage, although if prices do fall significantly it means I may not have to weigh in when the kids are ready to buy so would be advantageous on that respect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 7 hours ago, MARTINX9 said: I wouldn't bank on anything while Mark Carney and Phil buy to let Hammond are still in their jobs! We need a GE for a proper change, but I remember hope smashed by the Moron and that creepy squirt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warrior88 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 26 minutes ago, simon2 said: I don't think the wait is over personally. Prices are falling, in the areas that I see. But at present this is just dropping to a rung or two below. On my watchlist places are still being snapped up pretty quickly if priced under the current market asking prices (which is still full of people trying desperately to ask for last years prices). For a real crash to happen, either sentiment has to turn much more, and there needs to be larger barriers against high prices. I think the first is difficult, after all, people need somewhere to live. A lot of people on the site here would regard getting a house valued at £350,000 today for £250,000 next year as a success, even though that price is still way above what it was 10 years ago. There is only so much you can wait, and the likelihood of a 'soft landing' (in which the decline is gained via no nominal price movements or small decreases over a long period) seems much more palatable to the government. The second part is that credit is still easy to come by. I believe there is a lot of pent up demand waiting at lower prices both from OO and BTL, and they can get the finance. Higher interest rates would be a powerful force because people simply wouldn't be able to afford the repayments even if they wanted the house or the yields won't stack up. I completely agree. We need a recession and increase in interest rates to have any real impact. The availability of credit is still plenty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Freezer? Best place for it said: We need a GE for a proper change, but I remember hope smashed by the Moron and that creepy squirt. Unfortunately, despite promises to the contrary, when we voted for Cameron and Osborne, instead of sorting out "Labour's housing bubble" they pumped it up to new highs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ftb_fml Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Nice post / thread I'd agree that the tide is definitely turning; although I'm not sure we've gone over the edge yet. It's taken over two years for London to reach the point is has and those of us outside PCL are still waiting to ride the ensuing ripples. Both sentiment and hard economic / HPI data have also been declining for a while now; and globally this seems to have accelerated markedly in the past 3 months - which I believe is very important. I think given all the factors concerned the rate of deterioration is only going to increase for the foreseeable. Public sentiment is definitely souring towards the establishment lies and their increasingly obvious fallout, however en-masse the people are still largely uneducated and placated; still being led by the nose by the media. This has not been, and there is unlikely to be, some enormous national epiphany / awakening of understanding. As times get harder the public look for someone to blame (anger which is often hi-jacked by opportunists with agendas - see Brexit and Trump); when (if) they get better, the people go back to sleep. How things play out also depends on the government's actions; however IMO the incumbents' time is almost up as they've proven to be one of the most shamefully dysfunctional and overtly exploititive assemblies in living memory; one whose hypocrisy, lies and ineptitude have become clear for all to see as the situation has deteriorated. A Brexit "deal" outcome might result if short-term optimism for 6 months until everyone realises we're all screwed. A "no deal" outcome will cause things to collapse far more rapidly since everyone has been conditioned to accept this as basically the end of the world. Regardless, in the medium to long term things will continue to tank as people realise the true horror of the situation we're facing (in general terms, not just as a result of Brexit) and we'll see recession, job losses, asset price collapse and a change of government as the Tories rightfully cop the blame for it all despite thier whimpering and pointing of the finger of blame at Brexit as the sole cause. I don't think anyone can deny that the housing market is in for a kicking and that the decline has already begun; the only questions remaining now are "how long" and "how far". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2rocketman Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 33 minutes ago, warrior88 said: I completely agree. We need a recession and increase in interest rates to have any real impact. The availability of credit is still plenty. I don’t agree. I know people with a lot of equity that have struggled to remortgage for whatever reason. Interest rates are low but real world lending is tightening! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2rocketman Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 You can add stamp duty, surveys, mortgage set up fees solicitors fees etc to that. Most would be buyers, up sizers don’t have a pot to piss in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2rocketman Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, ftb_fml said: Nice post / thread I'd agree that the tide is definitely turning; although I'm not sure we've gone over the edge yet. It's taken over two years for London to reach the point is has and those of us outside PCL are still waiting to ride the ensuing ripples. Both sentiment and hard economic / HPI data have also been declining for a while now; and globally this seems to have accelerated markedly in the past 3 months - which I believe is very important. I think given all the factors concerned the rate of deterioration is only going to increase for the foreseeable. Public sentiment is definitely souring towards the establishment lies and their increasingly obvious fallout, however en-masse the people are still largely uneducated and placated; still being led by the nose by the media. This has not been, and there is unlikely to be, some enormous national epiphany / awakening of understanding. As times get harder the public look for someone to blame (anger which is often hi-jacked by opportunists with agendas - see Brexit and Trump); when (if) they get better, the people go back to sleep. How things play out also depends on the government's actions; however IMO the incumbents' time is almost up as they've proven to be one of the most shamefully dysfunctional and overtly exploititive assemblies in living memory; one whose hypocrisy, lies and ineptitude have become clear for all to see as the situation has deteriorated. A Brexit "deal" outcome might result if short-term optimism for 6 months until everyone realises we're all screwed. A "no deal" outcome will cause things to collapse far more rapidly since everyone has been conditioned to accept this as basically the end of the world. Regardless, in the medium to long term things will continue to tank as people realise the true horror of the situation we're facing (in general terms, not just as a result of Brexit) and we'll see recession, job losses, asset price collapse and a change of government as the Tories rightfully cop the blame for it all despite thier whimpering and pointing of the finger of blame at Brexit as the sole cause. I don't think anyone can deny that the housing market is in for a kicking and that the decline has already begun; the only questions remaining now are "how long" and "how far". Agreed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warrior88 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 28 minutes ago, 2rocketman said: I don’t agree. I know people with a lot of equity that have struggled to remortgage for whatever reason. Interest rates are low but real world lending is tightening! Yes well can only say from personal experience. Three of my cousins have all bought houses ranging from 550K to 750K in the same vicinity (suburban London) this January and their mortgages were approved in 2 weeks time, I was surprised by the ease they all got the credit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2rocketman Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 Well I guess each situation is different, existing equity, salaries etc. There credentials much be very strong I would suggest for those purchases. I hope they all negotiated good deals on the price of the houses. Would be interested to know what reductions they got if any? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 hours ago, 2rocketman said: If you are using the help to buy equity loan scheme, you can only purchase a new-build property from a participating registered house builder. now yes, before you could use it against older property up to 600k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 12 hours ago, 2rocketman said: HTB on old properties is one of my biggest fears. HTB for everyone! It's such a 'success' that it's manifestly 'unfair' that only a subsection of buyers can enjoy it. A taxpayer funded bung to all house buyers to enable them to take on an even bigger debt load to 'own' a roof over their heads is clearly what's needed. Credit created through property purchases makes up a substantial part of the pool of money out there in the economy. The government can't afford for the credit pool to shrink, they will do anything to keep the 'borrowing massive amounts of money against property' bandwagon going. Debt will be simply rolled over and the can kicked down the line as far as it can go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MARTINX9 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 hours ago, Si1 said: Omg people will always need somewhere to live. There are lots of people who need somewhere to live in desperately poor countries - but that doesn't mean that sustains people paying £300k for a one bed flat in those countries. Its about the ability of money and wages to chase the prices. Perhaps they will but its not a given. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 hours ago, simon2 said: For a real crash to happen, either sentiment has to turn much more, and there needs to be larger barriers against high prices. I think the first is difficult, after all, people need somewhere to live. People need something to clean their teeth with. That doesn't mean toothbrushes should cost £250,000. People need somewhere to live. That doesn't mean houses should cost £250,000. People needed somewhere to live in 2008. House prices still fell by 15%. "People need somewhere to live" just doesn't work as a justification. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 11 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said: There are lots of people who need somewhere to live in desperately poor countries - but that doesn't mean that sustains people paying £300k for a one bed flat in those countries. Its about the ability of money and wages to chase the prices. Perhaps they will but its not a given. Agreed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 hours ago, 24gray24 said: There comes a moment when you start begging young people not to buy now, and they laugh at you like you're past it, and they wouldn't lend unless they knew you could pay it back. Jeremiah or cassandra: thankless job. No point trying to convince the HPI koolaid drinkers not to buy, they are immune to both data and logical argument. HPI is a faith. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeanutButter Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 15 hours ago, 2rocketman said: I have been waiting 6 years to buy, come close a couple of times out of desperation, pressure from others around me etc same as many on here. Well done on having a plan, doing the leg work, and monitoring the indicators. You're in the best position you can be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kirk Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 53 minutes ago, scottbeard said: People need something to clean their teeth with. That doesn't mean toothbrushes should cost £250,000. People need somewhere to live. That doesn't mean houses should cost £250,000. People needed somewhere to live in 2008. House prices still fell by 15%. "People need somewhere to live" just doesn't work as a justification. UK household size has remained at 2.4 for a decade. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/bulletins/familiesandhouseholds/2016 So, as you say, there is no pressure on people needing somewhere to live. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 hours ago, ftb_fml said: Nice post / thread I'd agree that the tide is definitely turning; although I'm not sure we've gone over the edge yet. It's taken over two years for London to reach the point is has and those of us outside PCL are still waiting to ride the ensuing ripples. Both sentiment and hard economic / HPI data have also been declining for a while now; and globally this seems to have accelerated markedly in the past 3 months - which I believe is very important. I think given all the factors concerned the rate of deterioration is only going to increase for the foreseeable. Public sentiment is definitely souring towards the establishment lies and their increasingly obvious fallout, however en-masse the people are still largely uneducated and placated; still being led by the nose by the media. This has not been, and there is unlikely to be, some enormous national epiphany / awakening of understanding. As times get harder the public look for someone to blame (anger which is often hi-jacked by opportunists with agendas - see Brexit and Trump); when (if) they get better, the people go back to sleep. How things play out also depends on the government's actions; however IMO the incumbents' time is almost up as they've proven to be one of the most shamefully dysfunctional and overtly exploititive assemblies in living memory; one whose hypocrisy, lies and ineptitude have become clear for all to see as the situation has deteriorated. A Brexit "deal" outcome might result if short-term optimism for 6 months until everyone realises we're all screwed. A "no deal" outcome will cause things to collapse far more rapidly since everyone has been conditioned to accept this as basically the end of the world. Regardless, in the medium to long term things will continue to tank as people realise the true horror of the situation we're facing (in general terms, not just as a result of Brexit) and we'll see recession, job losses, asset price collapse and a change of government as the Tories rightfully cop the blame for it all despite thier whimpering and pointing of the finger of blame at Brexit as the sole cause. I don't think anyone can deny that the housing market is in for a kicking and that the decline has already begun; the only questions remaining now are "how long" and "how far". This guy Richard Baldwin was talking on the radio today about the book out this year called: The Globotics Upheaval.......fascinating, we just don't know what is coming our way, it is the service jobs we will be losing including legal and journalist work....Brexit will make us a bigger part of the greater globalised world faster than would have done by staying for longer......careful what is wished for.....having said that the real people to people caring, social, therapy, healing style jobs will be better placed, the low valued jobs become the most valued jobs.When our job depends on our humanity, we are going to be okay. https://www.waterstones.com/book/the-globotics-upheaval/richard-baldwin//9781474609012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fromage Frais Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 hours ago, Bruce Banner said: Unfortunately, despite promises to the contrary, when we voted for Cameron and Osborne, instead of sorting out "Labour's housing bubble" they pumped it up to new highs. On LBC they where speaking about Mr Neeson and his violent desires. The discussion have you ever felt violent towards someone or something like that. My one is about 2012 and to those guys. "nice little housing boom" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fromage Frais Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said: There are lots of people who need somewhere to live in desperately poor countries - but that doesn't mean that sustains people paying £300k for a one bed flat in those countries. Its about the ability of money and wages to chase the prices. Perhaps they will but its not a given. Go to most third world places They have mega expensive property prices in their decent areas. They are all at this print money for fake prosperity scam https://www.dw.com/en/real-estate-market-booms-in-gaza/a-15226449 https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-tehran-housing-prices-rise-as-currency-declines/29517466.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/gdpr-consent/?destination=%2fworld%2fmiddle-east%2fin-postwar-iraq-housing-still-scarce%2f2011%2f09%2f19%2fgIQAu9H0pK_story.html%3f&utm_term=.334991b00078 etc etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
username Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 16 hours ago, Discustard said: Agree with everything you said. I too am waiting with my deposit. The only question is what outrageous stunt the government will pull to try to keep the bubble inflated. I wouldn't put anything past them, to include just straight up giving people money to make up losses/negative equity. My money is on the reintroduction of MIRAS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said: There are lots of people who need somewhere to live in desperately poor countries - but that doesn't mean that sustains people paying £300k for a one bed flat in those countries. Its about the ability of money and wages to chase the prices. Perhaps they will but its not a given. No - it's primarily about the availability and cost of credit to allow you to borrow to chase stupidly high prices. The government stepping in with a chunk of interest free (for five years) cash over and above what the banks will lend you is one very obvious sign of that. Other longer term 'solutions' will be extending the period of the repayments - multi generational mortgages anyone? - and government backing to enable cheap, fixed-rate loans over long durations a la Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac in the USA. The key objective will be to get the public borrowing large amounts of credit into existence on an ongoing basis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 14 minutes ago, username said: My money is on the reintroduction of MIRAS. That reduces tax revenues, so seems very unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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