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Si1

Interest rates going down

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Monetary policy tightening is over. The Fed had signalled as much.

The liberal elite are getting more printy printy.

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We are here to consume, if we can't earn enough there will be plenty cheap available.....keep on spending, don't stop borrowing and spending.;)

 

 

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I posted recently postulating that they would pull a magic money-rabbit from a hat. Of course - print it. So obvious. Will prop up property for 6months and let HPC be the domain of Jeremy. Should we do the same here.

I have been wrong about many things before so don't actually listen to me - I wouldn't.

Don't stop believing though - in the depths of iniquity big finance can plumb. Go banks! Yay!

Edited by 29929BlackTuesday
Forgot to say I know it's the US but I suspect it's coming here.

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35 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Wall Street people, obvs.

 

 

They'll print to oblivion if necessary, Carney's fully on board.

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37 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Wall Street people, obvs.

 

 

Yep, wall street people with 20 million pound mortgages getting repod too.

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Paused for 2 quarters.

Numbers are confusing but im pretty sure US figures are voming unstrong. US labour market is white hot.

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27 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Paused for 2 quarters.

Numbers are confusing but im pretty sure US figures are voming unstrong. US labour market is white hot.

It's not mainstreet that they care about mate.

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28 minutes ago, Si1 said:

They'll print to oblivion if necessary, Carney's fully on board.

I don't doubt it.

Question is, will the central bank mafia admit corrections and price discovery along the way, or simply go the debt forgiveness route?

I've always thought the former, now I'm not so sure.

SPX-v.png

 

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Just now, zugzwang said:

I don't doubt it.

Question is, will the central bank mafia admit corrections and price discovery along the way, or simply go the debt forgiveness route?

I've always thought the former, now I'm not so sure.

SPX-v.png

 

They'll go the way of self interest, personal profit, and consolidation of power. Probably meaning the latter of those two currently. It's like the Roman empire.

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Property prices won't drop.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/almost-one-in-five-mps-are-landlords

They'll make sure money will be available. If property crashes, it'll impact elite as well.

I gave up in 2017 after waiting for 7 years.

Will be scary for next generation if they want to buy in 20 years time.

Too many corporates and international investor goddling up property in coming years.

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I'm keeping my fingers crossed on interest rates as we've got our main ISAs maturing in 2 months and I was hoping to get a decent rate.

Looking at what's available today. I could only get 0.5% more than 3 years ago, most disappointing.

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11 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

Property prices won't drop.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/almost-one-in-five-mps-are-landlords

They'll make sure money will be available. If property crashes, it'll impact elite as well.

I gave up in 2017 after waiting for 7 years.

Will be scary for next generation if they want to buy in 20 years time.

Too many corporates and international investor goddling up property in coming years.

Political landscape is really shifting.  As discussed in another thread, housing cost is seriously impacting talent retention despite paying more much than average salaries.  Rent-seeking ad infinitum is starting to crumble.

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6 minutes ago, blackhole said:

Political landscape is really shifting.  As discussed in another thread, housing cost is seriously impacting talent retention despite paying more much than average salaries.  Rent-seeking ad infinitum is starting to crumble.

Eventually there won't be an economy left.

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The elite would love the housing stock to rotate around to the younger generation at 10-12x wages, but really how can that possibly add up? The young have so many other claims on their current and future income: student loans, high rents while they save up a deposit, wrap-around childcare to make a dual income household logistically possible, saving a high % of income into defined contribution pensions, and all against a background of flat or falling real wages.

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1 hour ago, Simhadri said:

Property prices won't drop.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/almost-one-in-five-mps-are-landlords

They'll make sure money will be available. If property crashes, it'll impact elite as well.

I gave up in 2017 after waiting for 7 years.

Will be scary for next generation if they want to buy in 20 years time.

Too many corporates and international investor goddling up property in coming years.

Data points to you being wrong.

Very wrong if you are in London/SE.

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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

It's not mainstreet that they care about mate.

No.

Fed has chairmen across the US.

NY one gets to chair and oversee regulation.

Fed has to recover from the fallout if Greenspan. They have changed voting.

They do care about mainstreet. Relatuve to eize of tge evonomy, tge us finsec is a lot smaller than the uks.

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34 minutes ago, spyguy said:

No.

Fed has chairmen across the US.

NY one gets to chair and oversee regulation.

Fed has to recover from the fallout if Greenspan. They have changed voting.

They do care about mainstreet. Relatuve to eize of tge evonomy, tge us finsec is a lot smaller than the uks.

Plenty in the US itself would doubt Fed accountability.

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14 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

I'm keeping my fingers crossed on interest rates as we've got our main ISAs maturing in 2 months and I was hoping to get a decent rate.

Looking at what's available today. I could only get 0.5% more than 3 years ago, most disappointing.

Invest less of it and spend the difference as if an income from a better rate......build it up, then draw it down.....time to draw it down.ūüėČ

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15 hours ago, Simhadri said:

Property prices won't drop.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/almost-one-in-five-mps-are-landlords

They'll make sure money will be available. If property crashes, it'll impact elite as well.

I gave up in 2017 after waiting for 7 years.

Will be scary for next generation if they want to buy in 20 years time.

Too many corporates and international investor goddling up property in coming years.

I understand¬†your sentiment and perhaps the long term trend and stats ‚Äėmay‚Äô continue to bumble along. I disagree but it could well be the case.¬†

I look at a more individual and local level and¬†ignore the stats and ‚Äėunderlying trend‚Äô.

I promise you if all someone is¬†interested in is buying economically¬†at 50% of comparatives from a year earlier, then that time will come again, again and again. Okay, the purchase may not be ‚Äėideal‚Äô but it can be ‚Äėalmost ideal‚Äô¬†and definitely suitable.¬†

When people stop buying it’s a marvellous thing.

I have helped several FTB’ers in our family do that. They were buying anyway...couldn’t convince them otherwise so I was asked if I could view and help. One bought a 3 bed terrace £125k where next door (which they f&?8ing nearly bought) was £185k. Some paint and some physical DIY support from their closer family allowed them to replicate next door for a £5k spend. 

My last purchase (2013 pre HPC convert) was¬†a house for ¬£210k in a road where the ‚Äėgoing rate‚Äô was ¬£400k.¬†

I think the ‚Äėgoing rate‚Äô that neighbours see never changed....just nothing was selling. Someone NEEDED to sell and no one would step up.¬†

This week a house has sold for £235k and the neighbouring one (same footprint) which is modernised but really quite dirty and needs a clean, paint (currently unfashionably magnolia) and carpets...oh, plus removing the 2 chest freezers from the dining room is £160k. No real cost to uplift...but £75k lower! 

Now the trend and the stats say these are worth £225k....but that is a lie based on some daft prices paid for 2 or 3 houses painted grey, grey blinds, log burner effect, grey kitchen and lots of wicker love hearts. The value if nicely done is £170k....absolutely no question. Fact that some will pay £230k with the help of BOM&D or HTB ISA or cheap interest rates...is a disaster for them waiting to happen. 

I live in a small/medium size town so there aren’t millions of houses on the market to choose from....so this can’t be an untypical picture.

My own son is looking but knows to wait...watch. 

I believe it will fall.....but all I am saying (rather long windedly) is if it doesn’t come....it still may be happening around you when you watch very closely. People near me are still coo’ing at the sale of the £235k house....and totally ignore that the £160k remains unsold.

There is hope but I understand the despair felt by many who feel a fall with never come. 

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23 minutes ago, winkie said:

Invest less of it and spend the difference as if an income from a better rate......build it up, then draw it down.....time to draw it down.ūüėČ

Fortunately that isn't necessary, we live within our means and manage put a bit away, but less than I had expected when I first retired.

High inflation could change all that, though, so it would be nice to keep building the war chest.

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  • 292 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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