Is inequality growing?

[Captain Kirk]

On 01/02/2019 at 19:03, Gribble said:

Utter drivelhttp://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22616.html

Those assumptions don't fit other facts we know such as the UK fertility rate being below the level required to maintain the population, and immigration supposedly being reduced after Brexit. It may be that the 200K a year due to births exceeding deaths are due to people getting older, but will that trend continue? As for immigration, who knows?

Quote

The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.

 I thought I'd point it out as it comes up a lot on here.

[DonJop12]

1 hour ago, longgone said:

i walked through the embankment towards covent garden and phone boxes and grit stores were being used as makeshift storage units for the homeless. The entrance to a shop had piles of duvets with about 10 men sleeping together like a rats nest.  first time i felt physically sick.  

My commute involves zone 1 and the encounters with homeless are getting ever more confrontational, even though I am not exactly looking for confrontation. In the past year I have been threatened with physical violence for not handing over money and I have had an East European grab my arm.

I don't have all the answers but clearly something is wrong when luxury flats sit empty (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_Point) surrounded by growing numbres of tents.

[MattW]

On 31/01/2019 at 19:39, Fromage Frais said:

I do not see much difference in their lifestyles to be honest as its easier to get a range rover on PCP than buy a house.  Crappy areas have some very large engined motors outside (older range rover sports etc), the richer roads usually old biddy cars as....its mostly old biddies.

I've noticed this too.

[zugzwang]

3 hours ago, Captain Kirk said:

Those assumptions don't fit other facts we know such as the UK fertility rate being below the level required to maintain the population, and immigration supposedly being reduced after Brexit. It may be that the 200K a year due to births exceeding deaths are due to people getting older, but will that trend continue? As for immigration, who knows?

 I thought I'd point it out as it comes up a lot on here.

Just 70.5 million in 2030 vs 56 million in 1997, and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues.

Woohoo! Looking forward to it already.

[simvastatin]

3 hours ago, DonJop12 said:

My commute involves zone 1 and the encounters with homeless are getting ever more confrontational, even though I am not exactly looking for confrontation. In the past year I have been threatened with physical violence for not handing over money and I have had an East European grab my arm.

I don't have all the answers but clearly something is wrong when luxury flats sit empty (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_Point) surrounded by growing numbres of tents.

Yes the threat of violence seems to be increasing, it only seems to be a threat am not sure they would go that far, they don’t want to be noticed by the authorities 

The UK just don’t seem to be as safe and stable as it used to be

[longgone]

4 hours ago, DonJop12 said:

My commute involves zone 1 and the encounters with homeless are getting ever more confrontational, even though I am not exactly looking for confrontation. In the past year I have been threatened with physical violence for not handing over money and I have had an East European grab my arm.

I don't have all the answers but clearly something is wrong when luxury flats sit empty (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_Point) surrounded by growing numbres of tents.

Only time that happend was when I was much younger, they obviously think they can get away with it. I dropped some change down the drain after I was spat at.

[longgone]

1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

Just 70.5 million in 2030 vs 56 million in 1997, and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues.

Woohoo! Looking forward to it already.

Crossrail finally opens

[nothernsoul]

Recent statistics, recorded violent crime up 20 percent. Also definitely an increase in pickpocketing, shoplifting(or as i have seen on numerous occasions, blatantly walking out with goods while ignoring the protests of staff) ,which often isnt reported anymore but can be witnessed on a daily basis in most large cities. Weirdly, i think all the focus on brexit shambles has helped the government in some ways, by diverting attention from problems elsewhere. 

[winkie]

9 hours ago, nothernsoul said:

Recent statistics, recorded violent crime up 20 percent. Also definitely an increase in pickpocketing, shoplifting(or as i have seen on numerous occasions, blatantly walking out with goods while ignoring the protests of staff) ,which often isnt reported anymore but can be witnessed on a daily basis in most large cities. Weirdly, i think all the focus on brexit shambles has helped the government in some ways, by diverting attention from problems elsewhere. 

Could be something to do with lack of respect of elders, including parents, teachers, police and people in authority......no fear of consequences of actions, no fear of being caught doing something known to be wrong.....when some people believe they have nothing to lose they have no fear of loss?......a breakdown of society, lack of hope, loss of trust??

[Frugal Git]

8 minutes ago, winkie said:

Could be something to do with lack of respect of elders, including parents, teachers, police and people in authority......no fear of consequences of actions, no fear of being caught doing something known to be wrong.....when some people believe they have nothing to lose they have no fear of loss?......a breakdown of society, lack of hope, loss of trust??

Why should anyone automatically *respect* 'elders' or 'authority' without that respect being earned though?  And certainly unless that is automatically reciprocated for the hypothetical stereotype skills a youth may have.

Politeness and consideration, sure - but that's different from respect.

I'm middle aged now ?  but as far as I'm concerned a twenty year old has every right to assume that I'm no more worthy of respect until I've proven otherwise, and vice versa.

Edited February 4, 2019 by Frugal Git

[happyguy]

14 hours ago, DonJop12 said:

and I have had an East European grab my arm.

Yes they have no respect that is how they live iun their own country

It is wonderful that we have FOM that lets people come to the UK and beg on the streets - very useful to the UK

I thought all the immigrants were people we needed to work in the UK with skills that we are lacking? 

They should be just sent home if they have no job for more than 4 weeks

 

10 hours ago, longgone said:

Crossrail finally opens

LOL - it will affect dinghy sales

9 hours ago, nothernsoul said:

Recent statistics, recorded violent crime up 20 percent. Also definitely an increase in pickpocketing, shoplifting(or as i have seen on numerous occasions, blatantly walking out with goods while ignoring the protests of staff) ,which often isnt reported anymore but can be witnessed on a daily basis in most large cities.

 

7 minutes ago, winkie said:

Could be something to do with lack of respect of elders, including parents, teachers, police and people in authority......no fear of consequences of actions, no fear of being caught doing something known to be wrong.....when some people believe they have nothing to lose they have no fear of loss?......a breakdown of society, lack of hope, loss of trust??

It is just a sense of entitlement allied to a realisation that there are no consequences 

[winkie]

13 minutes ago, Frugal Git said:

Why should anyone automatically *respect* 'elders' or 'authority' without that respect being earned though? 

Politeness and consideration, sure - but that's different from respect.

I'm middle aged now ?  but as far as I'm concerned a twenty year old has every right to assume that I'm no more worthy of respect until I've proven otherwise, and vice versa.

Not all individuals are worthy of respect but a person put into the position of responsibility for others should be respected for the job they do.......elders are generally older and wiser people, who have others best interests at heart.......not all older people are responsible, just because don't respect them like you say doesn't mean are not polite to them......rude people are asking for others to be rude back to them....a trap.?

[winkie]

12 minutes ago, happyguy said:

Yes they have no respect that is how they live iun their own country

It is wonderful that we have FOM that lets people come to the UK and beg on the streets - very useful to the UK

I thought all the immigrants were people we needed to work in the UK with skills that we are lacking? 

They should be just sent home if they have no job for more than 4 weeks

 

That is not very respectful of others...... inequality is a global problem......we all live on one world, we are all interdependent of others, no man is an island, if you can't see it it doesn't mean it is not there.....there is a very thin line between having something and losing it......fear of difference, fear of others similar to ourselves taking away what we have is very real fear for some.?

[iamnumerate]

19 minutes ago, winkie said:

That is not very respectful of others...... inequality is a global problem......we all live on one world, we are all interdependent of others, no man is an island, if you can't see it it doesn't mean it is not there.....there is a very thin line between having something and losing it......fear of difference, fear of others similar to ourselves taking away what we have is very real fear for some.?

If immigration is allowed to help others then that is not an unreasonable thing for politicians to want.  However they always said immigration is to benefit the UK, it is not charity.

 

[PeanutButter]

When was inequality lowest? What were the identifiable factors involved in creating that situation? What has changed?

Are we just talking about inequality in the UK or in all developed countries or across the world?

I spoke to my teacher friend again. All the teachers he knows buy food/small items for certain students. There are children from poor families who don't need this service and there are children who do. The ones who do often come from homes where a parent simply doesn't care about them. How do we make people care for their children?

[winkie]

17 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

If immigration is allowed to help others then that is not an unreasonable thing for politicians to want.  However they always said immigration is to benefit the UK, it is not charity.

 

Immigration is not bad, go back in history we all moved around the world, we all came from somewhere ....most move to better their lives and in so doing in the main better other people's lives......we tend to make assumptions about others without knowing truth, facts, reasons behind a story......we think someone is polish when they may well be Russian or come from another place....... Charity is interesting, charity is private help given by others that want to help others less fortunate than themselves, their money, their time, their choice how to spend or use it.....many immigrants do not have assess to state assistance, they have no documents, they are solely reliant on the charity of others...... humanity.?

[iamnumerate]

38 minutes ago, winkie said:

Immigration is not bad, go back in history we all moved around the world, we all came from somewhere ....most move to better their lives and in so doing in the main better other people's lives......we tend to make assumptions about others without knowing truth, facts, reasons behind a story......we think someone is polish when they may well be Russian or come from another place....... Charity is interesting, charity is private help given by others that want to help others less fortunate than themselves, their money, their time, their choice how to spend or use it.....many immigrants do not have assess to state assistance, they have no documents, they are solely reliant on the charity of others...... humanity.?

I don't think anyone would object if all housing etc for immigrants in the first few years they are here, that it was provided by charity.

I think people object to paying it themselves.

[frankief]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

just because don't respect them like you say doesn't mean are not polite to them......rude people are asking for others to be rude back to them....a trap.?

Yes but where is the border between talking straight to someone and being rude?

Knowing where you stand with someone is useful, because the politeness they show to you can be fake.

I notice it a lot in the workspace these days. People are so sensitive, they actually expect to be congratulated for doing their job. I'm not talking about doing am exemplary piece of work above and beyond what was expected. Just for doing the normal day to day routine stuff that they are paid to do.

'Thanks very very much for the report you put on my desk only two hours late, and riddled with basic spelling mistakes and bad grammar. Obviously I can't point that out because it might hurt your feelings. I really appreciate that. Truthfully!'

[nightowl]

Has anyone here seen the  Milanovich / Lakner 'elephant' curve showing global income growth across the world?

Remember its pre financial crash (does anyone have a more modern one?) so the 75-85 percentile may well be further below the line, and the top5% even higher.  Anyway the graph inidcates that most of the worlds population is enjoying far high living standards, at some point at expense of the non-elite in the 1st world.

So when the leftist ideologues say capitalism is shafting everyone...its not.

Edited February 4, 2019 by nightowl

[Wayward]

12 hours ago, nothernsoul said:

Recent statistics, recorded violent crime up 20 percent. Also definitely an increase in pickpocketing, shoplifting(or as i have seen on numerous occasions, blatantly walking out with goods while ignoring the protests of staff) ,which often isnt reported anymore but can be witnessed on a daily basis in most large cities. Weirdly, i think all the focus on brexit shambles has helped the government in some ways, by diverting attention from problems elsewhere. 

I was queuing in my Coop local when a guy strolled in and picked up a bottle of wine and walked out without paying, bold as brass.  The one rather stressed guy manning the tills said 'you're banned' and the response was 'not again!'...There is very little in the way of effective law enforcement.  Folk volunteer to follow societies rules and norms or folk can choose not to without consequence.

[Riedquat]

On 01/02/2019 at 17:37, iamnumerate said:

However in the 1930s we had rickets, TB, iodine deficiency, the poor had few books and not many had radios. 

Now they have radios, phones, TV, internet and in many cases libraries.

If you really think that is comparable I think there is no point in discussing this  any further, our views are too different.

So were the poor - and let's not just look right at the bottom end of this - worse off? Certainly being poor now places you at significantly less physical risk (illness and injury). I'd need to check the facts but the light at the end of the tunnel was visible for some of the problems you mention. How easily available were libraries then? The story I heard several times about my great-grandpa was that his job was cleaning railway wagons but had a habit of finding an out of the way one and a book. But anyway, I don't think it's at all unreasonable to say that the physical situation for the poor was harder in the 1930s than now.

Where it gets more debatable is the mental situation. We've certainly got vastly easier access to distractions than even the wealthiest would've had not that long ago. Are people - poor or not - actually getting happier as a result? Stress and depression would suggest not, although care needs to be taken in looking at that, people not being at all open about it in the past compared to now. IMO uncertainty, dependency, and unstimulating, lifeless environments are all disastrous for mental health and they're all on the increase.

[Riedquat]

19 hours ago, winkie said:

But having a mobile, having instant access to others or them to you is not a benefit......we have adapted life to see that those without a mobile are at a disadvantage, when nobody had one, nobody was at a disadvantage.....

Which is why I don't have one now - they don't seem to do anything that I wished I could do but couldn't when nobody had one.

[iamnumerate]

53 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

So were the poor - and let's not just look right at the bottom end of this - worse off? Certainly being poor now places you at significantly less physical risk (illness and injury). I'd need to check the facts but the light at the end of the tunnel was visible for some of the problems you mention. How easily available were libraries then? The story I heard several times about my great-grandpa was that his job was cleaning railway wagons but had a habit of finding an out of the way one and a book. But anyway, I don't think it's at all unreasonable to say that the physical situation for the poor was harder in the 1930s than now.

Where it gets more debatable is the mental situation. We've certainly got vastly easier access to distractions than even the wealthiest would've had not that long ago. Are people - poor or not - actually getting happier as a result? Stress and depression would suggest not, although care needs to be taken in looking at that, people not being at all open about it in the past compared to now. IMO uncertainty, dependency, and unstimulating, lifeless environments are all disastrous for mental health and they're all on the increase.

I would agree with you.

 

47 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Which is why I don't have one now - they don't seem to do anything that I wished I could do but couldn't when nobody had one.

Are you never running late because of traffic or transport problems and want to phone someone to say that you are late?

[Riedquat]

57 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

Are you never running late because of traffic or transport problems and want to phone someone to say that you are late?

Not that often. I'll still be late anyway whether I phone up or not. It should be possible to get through life without needing to know for certain absolutely everything; wanting to do so rather feels like insecurity. That doesn't mean that it's never useful or a good idea but personally I don't find that that happens often enough for it to be a reasonable response to carry around something just in case to deal with that situation. Life managed to carry on before we could let people know all the time, with the occasional hiccup that was mostly forgotten soon afterwards. I find I run into a situation about once a year where I feel a mobile phone would be a genuinely useful thing to have, and obviously never where it's been a life or death situation (otherwise I wouldn't be here), and never where there have been anything other than short term consequences.

I'm certainly glad I didn't have one for the holiday I was on last week, so I could completely cut myself off from all the usual crap that grinds me down, even if it was just a temporary patch of burying my head in the sand. And that's despite a few "it would be so much easier if you had one so we could be in the same place at the same time", or in a couple of cases things insisting they needed a number when they'd worked perfectly fine without them in the past (manufactured usefulness).

(if it was a health issue I could phone from home)

Edited February 4, 2019 by Riedquat

[Errol]

3 hours ago, Wayward said:

I was queuing in my Coop local when a guy strolled in and picked up a bottle of wine and walked out without paying, bold as brass.  The one rather stressed guy manning the tills said 'you're banned' and the response was 'not again!'...There is very little in the way of effective law enforcement.  Folk volunteer to follow societies rules and norms or folk can choose not to without consequence.

No CCTV at entrance/exit? If they have the individual's face it will be easy to put him in prison.