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NAEA Housing Market Report

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The great rush to the exit begins 🙂

We have a few years now of hearing "well I am not giving it away" as so many of these speculative property "Gurus" chase the market down. The clever ones will just take a -10-15% hit now and just be grateful they made the money they did, but many will be pay the price with their greed, Good!🙂

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43 minutes ago, StuartMc said:

Supply up 20%; demand up 13%.

 

Actually supply was up 20% MoM and demand 13% YoY - the MoM demand increase was only 8% so even better!  No mention of the annual change in supply in the summary, although according to the graph in the report there were 33 properties per agent in Dec 2017 and 42 in Dec 2018, so a 27% increase in suppy YoY.

Good news on both counts since both the annual and monthly figure suggest growth in supply is a little more than double that of demand; so should drive prices down :)

 

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1 hour ago, ftb_fml said:
 

Actually supply was up 20% MoM and demand 13% YoY - the MoM demand increase was only 8% so even better!  No mention of the annual change in supply in the summary, although according to the graph in the report there were 33 properties per agent in Dec 2017 and 42 in Dec 2018, so a 27% increase in suppy YoY.

Good news on both counts since both the annual and monthly figure suggest growth in supply is a little more than double that of demand; so should drive prices down :)

 

I know loads of BTL and HMO scum in Cambridge, ALL have a little bit of panic in their voices, some selling, and Cambridge is one of the better places for the rental market.

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2 hours ago, StuartMc said:

Supply up 20%; demand up 13%.

I can see supply ging up massively as the iO BTL idiots unwind their positions of the last ~15 years.

I dont see mortgage approvals going anywhere until prices fall a fair bit.. Stuck at ~30% of what youd normally expect to see.

 

 

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2 hours ago, localhero1983 said:

The great rush to the exit begins 🙂

We have a few years now of hearing "well I am not giving it away" as so many of these speculative property "Gurus" chase the market down. The clever ones will just take a -10-15% hit now and just be grateful they made the money they did, but many will be pay the price with their greed, Good!🙂

Any IO BTLer with anysense will have left 4-5 years ago.

 

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28 minutes ago, longgone said:

bit daft just after the HTB run up 

No.

HTB is for new builds.

Its better to sell into a liquid market too early than an illiquid one too late.

 

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1 minute ago, spyguy said:

No.

HTB is for new builds.

Its better to sell into a liquid market too early than an illiquid one too late.

 

everything went up  probably late 2015 early 2016 was time to sell up. 

even the manky old 3 bed semis went from 250k to 400k + because of HTB

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3 hours ago, localhero1983 said:

I know loads of BTL and HMO scum in Cambridge, ALL have a little bit of panic in their voices, some selling, and Cambridge is one of the better places for the rental market.

Excellent :)

Interestingly FWIW anecdotally I think rents / yields have been falling in Oxford (which in many ways is like Cambridge) so it's highly likely that slumlords in these areas are feeling the pinch first as a combination of falling rents and property prices.

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There's some serious cherry-picking of comparisons going on there, with no publication of the original data.

Lots of rounding too - the average number of sales per EA was 5 in December, the same as last December.  For all we know, it could be 4.6 this year and 5.4 last year, a fall of 15%, which would be a huge drop, but this is completely invisible from their numbers.  They could only ever report an integer rise or fall from "5" in 20% increments, which would have to be a massive swing.

Besides which, the numbers are probably totally made up anyway, I wouldn't trust a word they say.

Note that the URL includes the word "lobbying", which probably tells you all you need to know about their reliability.

Edited by Tes Tickle

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29 minutes ago, Tes Tickle said:

There's some serious cherry-picking of comparisons going on there, with no publication of the original data.

Lots of rounding too - the average number of sales per EA was 5 in December, the same as last December.  For all we know, it could be 4.6 this year and 5.4 last year, a fall of 15%, which would be a huge drop, but this is completely invisible from their numbers.  They could only ever report an integer rise or fall from "5" in 20% increments, which would have to be a massive swing.

Besides which, the numbers are probably totally made up anyway, I wouldn't trust a word they say.

Note that the URL includes the word "lobbying", which probably tells you all you need to know about their reliability.

I think they mean EA office.

Lies, dammned lies, and the deulsions EA kid themselves with.

One I had argument on FB was that she was 'selling 4 or 5 properties a week. And her fried was too'

Assuming it wasnt a total lie, that would have been getting offers.

As far as completions were going, Id reckon the entire office only had 2-3 a week tops.

The reduction of staff, both agents and support - points to not a very flush sector.

 

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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