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RobertPaulson

Usa Technically In Default

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Apologies if someone has already pointed this out. (fairly amusing, if long article to boot)

http://www.freemarketnews.com/Analysis/102...id=102&nid=3626

The federal government does not have the legal authority to borrow above the statutory debt limit (which is $8,184b and current debt as of the 31st Jan was $8,196b).

The treasury's borrowing habit really is spiralling out of control, with another $188b slated for Q106 - $17b higher than the estimate for the period 3 months ago and with $80b in treasury paper already due to hit the market between the 1st feb to 9th feb.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/01/30/treasuryborrowing.ap/

I am beginning to think this site is somewhat pointless. When this all starts to unwind globally, buying a house on 'fair' income multiples is going to be the last thing on your mind :unsure:

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Guest Bart of Darkness
I am beginning to think this site is somewhat pointless. When this all starts to unwind globally, buying a house on 'fair' income multiples is going to be the last thing on your mind

Indeed. In fact it'll be just like Project Mayhem, eh Bob? ;)

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I am beginning to think this site is somewhat pointless. When this all starts to unwind globally, buying a house on 'fair' income multiples is going to be the last thing on your mind

Maybe you will just be glad to have a roof over your head and a garden to grow food in

It’s very hard to see a safe way through when it does unwind

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I am beginning to think this site is somewhat pointless. When this all starts to unwind globally, buying a house on 'fair' income multiples is going to be the last thing on your mind :unsure:

For sure - UK housing market is an irrelevantly small cog in a global machine undergoing catastrophic failure. Energy, resources, population, debt and environment degradation are the catalysts.

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I am beginning to think this site is somewhat pointless. When this all starts to unwind globally, buying a house on 'fair' income multiples is going to be the last thing on your mind :unsure:

Ohh-err hes a bright one!

Learns real quick.

Of course HPI is only a symptom, not the problem, but it is far from clear that there is any "end of the world" scenario brewing. Dont let the bears and astrologers ( :D ) get to you.

But "pointless"? Steady on, old chap. Chin up, shoulders back, chest out.

Youre reading this site, getting an education, learning the ropes, listening to others opinions....

Youre already half way to a solution ;)

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Of course HPI is only a symptom, not the problem, but it is far from clear that there is any "end of the world" scenario brewing. Dont let the bears and astrologers ( :D ) get to you.

how does a country with a structural current account deficit that is 7% of GDP pay back $8 trillion dollars in government debt?

Isn't that Bernake guy the one who said "The Fed has a novel technology, its called a printing press". I wonder what he does for a living these days.

The only way america can get out of this hole is by dollar depreciation, hence the ongoing highwire currency banter between china and usa. All the while China keeps booming, they will keep buying dollar debt and status quo prevails but..

Didn't I read something in january about an extra $284b dollars of growth in 2004 found under the red carpet? Does that strike you as something that happens when people have a good handle on their economic management? Still I'm sure those nice chaps in bejiing have taken onboard all the experiences of Japan in the late 80's and asia in 97 and will avoid the pitfalls - smooth and well planned economic expansion no doubt. Hey, maybe its 'different this time'..

As china is now america's manufacturing sector (hence the "structural" in "structural current account deficit") a drop in demand from the US/UK/Australia/the rest of the western consumer world would hit China badly. Unfortuately said countries appear to be chocka full of gulilble consumers "living the dream" hocked upto their eyeballs on a binge induced by our wonderful central banks 'strong currency low inflationary environment no more boom and bust, isn't it all great, sh*t I hope these deficits don't blow up before I get my pension or the PMs job (delete as applicable for your country of choice)' policies.

I'm sure you have noticed that on both sides of the atlantic, most of these of people cannot now a: fit anymore credit cards into their 'exlusive designer' wallets, b: fit anymore crap into their overpriced houses or c: afford to pay for any of these things (the usa actually has a negative savings rate at the moment)

The consumer spending contraction already underway in the west will hit china hard, its appetite for dollar debt will eventually decrease as a result and the dollar will start to slide, US interest rates have to rise to retain foreign investment capital flows. Who is the UK's biggest trading partner again? Guess where our IRs go..

Just my humble opinion and no, not an "end of the world" scenario. Could hurt a bit though. But I would welcome someone trying to pick holes in it as I think its something we could all do with understanding a hell of a lot more about (me included)

RP

Edited by RobertPaulson

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Ditto: I don't see the end of the world coming, just the end of democracy, big government and the post-war economic and political system in general.

Of course to most people that would seem like the end of the world.

Edited by MarkG

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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