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24gray24

Israel vs Iran edging towards war

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Proxy war because Iran has oil and America wants to steal it. (Sanctions are one step. Rockets are an escalation)

Plus a different God chose each (and neither can accept a multi God universe)

Cannot be good for economy.  

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3 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

You won't be saying that if it escalates far enough to affect shipping out of the straits of hormuz.

Just how much oil/gas do we here in the UK still import from that region?  for which those straits would be of concern to us.

We don't buy from Iran, as far as I understand it.

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Islamic sectriansium.

The West backs Arab Sunni's , the Russian's backs Persian Shia's.

One massive war has been ongoing from Turkey to Yemen. Oil for water, Tigris-Euphrates (Iraq) and the Jordan river (Syria)

Israel  would die without access to the river Jordan. Saudi Arabia will die if their oil becomes too cheap, they have no rivers.

The Arabs have to sell oil to the West, the Persians are blocked from selling oil to the West.

https://www.revealnews.org/blog/what-comes-after-the-big-short-going-long-on-water/

Edited by Lord D'arcy Pew
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On the water issue it has always surprised me that those various water sparse ME countries have not exploited their abundant (and intense!) solar energy supply to undertake desalination of seawater much more agressively than any 'token' efforts they have undertaken thus far to date.  Intuitively, it seems to me that fundamentally they need not be short of fresh water?

However, that is digressing from the oil/straits of hormuz question.

Edited by anonguest

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8 minutes ago, anonguest said:

On the water issue it has always surprised me that those various water sparse ME countries have not exploited their abundant (and intense!) solar energy supply to undertake desalination of seawater much more agressively than any 'token' efforts they have undertaken thus far to date.  Intuitively, it seems to me that fundamentally they need not be short of fresh water?

However, that is digressing from the oil/straits of hormuz question.

Not very  bright I expect!

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2 minutes ago, anonguest said:

Subtle.  Was that directed at me or 'them' ?

Sorry definitely them.

Better public relations to finance Sunni mercenaries freedom fighters to take control of the rivers.

They currently do burn oil to extract fresh water from the sea, the released CO2 in very bad for the planet. War is regarded is carbon neutral.  

Only need to push the right buttons to get the media on message.

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30 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Still blows my mind how much money USA gives fundamentalist ethnostate Israel. Tell you what though, we'll sort out Brexit before they sort out Gaza. 

As opposed to the fundamentalist ethnostate muslim countries?

Did a quick Googling on this just now to inform myself.

Yes. The U.S does appear to give Israel a lot BUT, apparently, much of that is in the way of military support (e.g. joint high tech weapons development programs and not just straightforward hardware/ammunition supplies, etc)?

I'm guessing that when this is stripped out then the remainder, presumably aimed at 'domestic' economic support(?), will be comparable to what is given to Egypt, Jordan, etc - which also, apparently, seem to be receiving >$1Bn per year.

Indeed it is staggering to discover just how much money the U.S has seemingly freely dispensed across the ME over decades. IF I were a U.S taxpayer I'd be pretty indignant to learn this to say the least!

However as an external observer, and given that the money has been spent, I'd have to say that given the obvious differences in how each of those countries have advanced themselves/made use of these funds over the many years then, on the face of it at least, I'd have to say the $ poured into Israel have seen greatest return and been put to use the most productively.  No doubt anyone daring to assert that cultural differences/democracy vs no democracy/rule of law/etc have played any part, and that the arab states still being behind in terms of 'development' will quickly be shouted down by Guardian readers as being racist, etc.

Edited by anonguest

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7 hours ago, happyguy said:

Israel and the mad muslim neighbours have been at each other since 1949 - with no effect on the economy 

 

Correction: Mad Israel and the mad Muslim neighbours ..

I don't see how we can call those corrupt Muslim states mad without also pointing out that Israel is also mad and rather blood thirsty too.

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Slightly off at at a tangent.

Saudi Arabian population growth is now below replacement level, they are having less than 2 children per couple.

I wonder why?

Perhaps the Arabs will need to have children with persians and jews and whites and blacks and chinese, or essentially we will all need to race mix 

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6 hours ago, anonguest said:

Just how much oil/gas do we here in the UK still import from that region?  for which those straits would be of concern to us.

We don't buy from Iran, as far as I understand it.

nope,but you buy from qatar,UAE,Kuwait and saudi...all of which are under threat from iran and respective proxies

rough calculation would be maybe 30%. of outr supply is purchase from the area.

not to mention everybody else does,and with the whole region up the spout,venezuela in pieces etc then your choices will be fairly simple.either way prepare for a supply crunch and a rather sever bout of inflation and fuel price surges.I would not necessarily count of saudi supply if hormuz gets blocked...not for a year or so at least.

remedial choices:

1) expand north sea rigs in conjunction with norway.

2)buy from uncle sam+canada

3)buy from russia.

 

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3 hours ago, anonguest said:

In answer to my own question (above).....

It would seem that the UK dependence on oil coming via the Straits of hormuz is today a fairly small percentage of total imports?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/381963/crude-oil-and-natural-gas-import-origin-countries-to-united-kingdom-uk/

 

statistics can be rather baffling.

there are different grades of crude....middle eastern stuff is light sweet and easier to crack for petroleum

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I've just spent the last two days im Haifa, it didn't have a feeling that they were going to war..also, I thought it was quite a wealthy place, but honestly it's a bit of a dump, the money from any oil certainly doesn't go to the population like Norway

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1 hour ago, oracle said:

statistics can be rather baffling.

there are different grades of crude....middle eastern stuff is light sweet and easier to crack for petroleum

True. But, so far as I understand it, Saudi crude is not particularly high grade(?).  Even if it is the very best/most desirable in the world the indications are, as the link intimates, that complete elimination of their supply to us would not be significant - and likely replaceable from elsewhere.

It would seem that the playign field has changed since the 1970's, when we had kiss their a***s.  Today, I think, they mostly supply Asia? or others who, I suspect, HMG and UK Joe Public couldn't care less if their supply was cut off.

Edited by anonguest

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24 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

I've just spent the last two days im Haifa, it didn't have a feeling that they were going to war..also, I thought it was quite a wealthy place, but honestly it's a bit of a dump, the money from any oil certainly doesn't go to the population like Norway

Israel doesn't have any oil(?)

My understanding is that a lot of the climb in their standard of living in recent decades has not been through foreign aid but through their own scientific/technological prowess?

Never been to Haifa.  From what I can see from a quick Googling, Haifa is a major shipping port?  So I'd not be surprised if it lacked charm and character compared with other more well known landmarks such as Jerusalem ( which I visited with the wife on a wider ME holiday many moons ago).  I guess you were comparing the local equivalant of Harwich with local equivalent of London?

Edited by anonguest

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Yeah, I work on a cruise ship and this was the port for Jerusalem/bethlehem etc...the drive on the bus towards Jerusalem showed a lot of poverty all the way. I was quite surprised by it all.

Didn't know if they had oil and didn't Google it tbh...!

 

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2 hours ago, prozac said:

 

Saudi Arabian population growth is now below replacement level, they are having less than 2 children per couple.

Google says it is 2.53, but that is still a real shock to me.

 

Iran is 1.66 and UAE 1.75.

 

This could be sleeper problem for Iran, 1.66 is way below a lot of European countries.

 

Israel is 3.11

Edited by reddog

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12 hours ago, anonguest said:

not been through foreign aid but through their own scientific/technological prowess?

37 billion dollars for free every single year will do wonders for your standard of living.

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13 hours ago, oracle said:

nope,but you buy from qatar,UAE,Kuwait and saudi...all of which are under threat from iran and respective proxies

rough calculation would be maybe 30%. of outr supply is purchase from the area.

not to mention everybody else does,and with the whole region up the spout,venezuela in pieces etc then your choices will be fairly simple.either way prepare for a supply crunch and a rather sever bout of inflation and fuel price surges.I would not necessarily count of saudi supply if hormuz gets blocked...not for a year or so at least.

remedial choices:

1) expand north sea rigs in conjunction with norway.

2)buy from uncle sam+canada

3)buy from russia.

 

4) Build a shedload of alternative stuff like wind, solar, tidal and nuclear, reducing your strategic dependence on oil, stimulating your economy and de localising your pollution all at the same time.

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On 21/01/2019 at 09:08, 24gray24 said:

Proxy war because Iran has oil and America wants to steal it. (Sanctions are one step. Rockets are an escalation)

Plus a different God chose each (and neither can accept a multi God universe)

Cannot be good for economy.  

america is a exporter of oil. why is it allways bad america wanted to steal it?  

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3 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

4) Build a shedload of alternative stuff like wind, solar, tidal and nuclear, reducing your strategic dependence on oil, stimulating your economy and de localising your pollution all at the same time.

But...but...this would upset Big Oil! We can't have that! 

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