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RICS- House sales outlook weakest on record

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https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-houseprices-rics/uk-house-sales-outlook-weakest-on-record-as-brexit-nears-rics-idUKKCN1PB005?il=0

Quote

 

RICS’ measure of house prices in December was its weakest since August 2012 at -19, below the median forecast of -13 in a Reuters poll of economists.

Prices were expected to remain flat over the next 12 months with the exception of London and south east where they have been falling, RICS said.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

Market is fked. No sales and less and less stock coming  into the market. Prices will be maintained 

Hopefully fatty selling his portfolio to the Nigerian prince who won the lottery after visiting a timeshare will cause all the other leveraged BTL landlords to sell up and flood the market.

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14 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

Market is fked. No sales and less and less stock coming  into the market. Prices will be maintained 

No such thing. Unless they stop old people dying, retiring on a lower pension, going bust....

Bear in kind that housing is more concentrated in the (well) over 50s than any other time since the 50s.

Thast not going to end well. Its not endign well in the traditional older owner towns.

Nothing to do with Brexit. All to do with MMR and high prices.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Just as well theyve got tenants fees, keeping the business tocking over ...

 

 Fingers crossed for a weaker £, see some more of the Polish going home then, not that I ever personally disliked them. They really were a lesson on how our welfare dossers are to pampered, work hard for crap pay and pay their rental without complaint or any problems.

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I like this line best on the BBC which has it as a top story...next to the Brexit headline:

It's the most downbeat reading since records started in October 1998 and the pessimism is blamed on the lack of clarity around Brexit..”

Forget the idiotic BBC claim that Brexit is to blame (this a global phenomenon with Canada New Zealand China etc leading the way), this is really good news. The fact is that if it didn’t tie into their Brexit narrative it would be way down the page. Prices will have to follow soon if we start seeing unemployment rise. Forced sellers will drive prices down hard and fast.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46891187

Edited by HovelinHove

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Guardian also running it.

 

Separate data from the property website Rightmove showed rent levels continuing to rise. Average asking rents in London hit an all-time high of £2,034 in the fourth quarter of 2018 as the number of available properties dwindled . Compared with a year earlier, the number of properties available to rent is down 22%.

Rightmove is predicting that asking rents will rise 4% in London this year and by 3% outside the capital.

Outside London, places in the north-west have had the biggest demand from tenants, such as Bootle, Runcorn and Birkenhead.

 

Rents up is concerning. 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

I like this line best on the BBC which has it as a top story...next to the Brexit headline:

It's the most downbeat reading since records started in October 1998 and the pessimism is blamed on the lack of clarity around Brexit..”

Forget the idiotic BBC claim that Brexit is to blame (this a global phenomenon with Canada New Zealand China etc leading the way), this is really good news. The fact is that if it didn’t tie into their Brexit narrative it would be way down the page. Prices will have to follow soon if we start seeing unemployment rise. Forced sellers will drive prices down hard and fast.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46891187

Brexit does play a part though. People here will be holding off because they don’t know what’s going to happen. China is a factor, but most people aren’t sitting tight because of China, not when rates are so low. They’re sitting tight because their jobs might disappear overseas. 

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1 minute ago, PeanutButter said:

Guardian also running it.

 

Separate data from the property website Rightmove showed rent levels continuing to rise. Average asking rents in London hit an all-time high of £2,034 in the fourth quarter of 2018 as the number of available properties dwindled . Compared with a year earlier, the number of properties available to rent is down 22%.

Rightmove is predicting that asking rents will rise 4% in London this year and by 3% outside the capital.

Outside London, places in the north-west have had the biggest demand from tenants, such as Bootle, Runcorn and Birkenhead.

 

Rents up is concerning. 

 

 

Yeah but rental demand is elastic, it's not going to bankrupt me, I can always downshift my rental. This is also to be expected short term as the property market adjusts. And besides those figures aren't adjusted for inflation are they?

(And they do feed into the BoE's inflation figures, maybe they'll need to sou something about that....)

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20 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Yeah but rental demand is elastic, it's not going to bankrupt me, I can always downshift my rental. This is also to be expected short term as the property market adjusts. And besides those figures aren't adjusted for inflation are they?

(And they do feed into the BoE's inflation figures, maybe they'll need to sou something about that....)

Asking rents are up, doesn't mean actual tents aren't falling.

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Just now, This time said:

Asking rents are up, doesn't mean actual tents aren't falling.

Indeed

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41 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Brexit does play a part though. People here will be holding off because they don’t know what’s going to happen. China is a factor, but most people aren’t sitting tight because of China, not when rates are so low. They’re sitting tight because their jobs might disappear overseas. 

You misunderstood...while China’s demise will have an impact on our economy, I was referring to the fact that their market is cooling. Slowing in property price rises or actual falls is a global phenomenon, and while Brexit may be a local factor, it is not the driving factor.

Edited by HovelinHove

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1 hour ago, HovelinHove said:

I like this line best on the BBC which has it as a top story...next to the Brexit headline:

It's the most downbeat reading since records started in October 1998 and the pessimism is blamed on the lack of clarity around Brexit..”

Forget the idiotic BBC claim that Brexit is to blame (this a global phenomenon with Canada New Zealand China etc leading the way), this is really good news. The fact is that if it didn’t tie into their Brexit narrative it would be way down the page. Prices will have to follow soon if we start seeing unemployment rise. Forced sellers will drive prices down hard and fast.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46891187

Since records began .... after  the late 80s boom/bust had finished busting and started to recover.

 

 

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1 hour ago, This time said:

Asking rents are up, doesn't mean actual tents aren't falling.

Dec 17-Dec 18 rent rises, according to yesterday’s ONS report, were 1% (0.2% in London).

fcfbf002

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/indexofprivatehousingrentalprices/december2018

Last time I looked, the other rent indices were garbage, although I don’t remember the details. 

Also, I would expect rents to pick up a bit, because wages have.

edit: link to data - https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/datasets/indexofprivatehousingrentalpricesreferencetables

 

Edited by BorrowToLeech

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53 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

I like this line best on the BBC which has it as a top story...next to the Brexit headline:

It's the most downbeat reading since records started in October 1998 and the pessimism is blamed on the lack of clarity around Brexit..”

Forget the idiotic BBC claim that Brexit is to blame (this a global phenomenon with Canada New Zealand China etc leading the way), this is really good news. The fact is that if it didn’t tie into their Brexit narrative it would be way down the page. Prices will have to follow soon if we start seeing unemployment rise. Forced sellers will drive prices down hard and fast.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46891187

The Brexit excuse is being used both by sellers and agents in the RW too. It can only encourage kite flying and since it looks like it will not go away soon could delay those sales where pragmatism and reality might otherwise win to give a result [for us = those who want a HPC].

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43 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Yeah but rental demand is elastic, it's not going to bankrupt me, I can always downshift my rental. This is also to be expected short term as the property market adjusts. And besides those figures aren't adjusted for inflation are they?

(And they do feed into the BoE's inflation figures, maybe they'll need to sou something about that....)

Yeah sure .... all those EUers leaving the UK are going to cause rents to rise. Logical? 🤔

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16 minutes ago, ebull said:

The Brexit excuse is being used both by sellers and agents in the RW too. It can only encourage kite flying and since it looks like it will not go away soon could delay those sales where pragmatism and reality might otherwise win to give a result [for us = those who want a HPC].

I agree...let’s not look a gift horse in the mouth...if people believe Brexit is causing prices to drop, then long may the uncertainty continue...however that could backfire if a deal is signed soon.

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2 hours ago, This time said:

Asking rents are up, doesn't mean actual tents aren't falling.

Just bang the asking prices right up there bruv, bang em up real good...

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2 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Rightmove is predicting that asking rents will rise 4% in London this year and by 3% outside the capital.

Rents up is concerning. 

 

Even if asking rents corresponded to achieved rents, a rise of 3% is pretty much in line with wage inflation. 

Edited by Clarky Cat

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  • 297 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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