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crazypabs

Bloomberg-Housing Bear Who Called 2018 Slowdown Says Worst Yet to Come

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Interesting article centering on the US but also relevant to the world property market...

Quote

James Stack, who predicted the 2008 real estate crash and nailed last year’s housing slowdown with uncanny timing, is back with some bad news for 2019.

“Housing could be heading for its worst year since the last housing crash," Stack, 67, said in a phone interview. “Expect home sales to continue on a downward trend in the next 12-plus months. And there’s a significant downside risk to housing prices if a recession takes hold.”

Last January, Stack was practically alone when he warned rising mortgage rates would expose housing’s affordability problem and “the risk that today’s highly inflated housing market will again end badly.” The day after Bloomberg published his comments on Jan. 22, homebuilder shares began a 10-day slide, and ended the year down by more than a third.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-07/housing-bear-who-called-2018-slowdown-sees-worst-yet-to-come

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9 hours ago, crazypabs said:

Interesting article centering on the US but also relevant to the world property market...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-07/housing-bear-who-called-2018-slowdown-sees-worst-yet-to-come

It was always coming. 

100,000's of mortgage holders would have been caught out back in 2008 with mortgage rates they took on and where they should have allowed themselves a 2% rise buffer, but had rates not dropped to near zero they would have been toast, so frustrating and of course zero moral hazard.

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  • 296 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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