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AdamoMucci

"Germany probably just went into a recession" ... "unexpected"...- data so bad economists are struggling to believe it

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https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-just-went-into-a-recession-2019-1?r=US&IR=T

Quote

'Bad and unexpected': Germany probably just went into a recession

Germany may be in recession, economists said, after they trawled through an unexpectedly horrible set of industrial and manufacturing data published on Wednesday's from the world's fourth-largest economy.

  • German industrial production fell by -1.9% in November.
  • Year over year, production hit a low of -4.6% — the biggest trough since the 2008 crisis.
  • Germany's exports fell -0.4% month over month in November, the government reported today.

..................

"The decline was broad-based across sectors, with no bright spots: manufacturing fell by 1.8% m-o-m with the consumer goods sector once again being the major drag (-4.1% m-o-m vs. -3.3% in Oct.) ... Today's data were both bad and unexpected. A technical recession in German industry now seems likely." — Stefan Schilbe of HSBC.

..................

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... full story at link above...

 

Italy growth at 0%, yellow vests still going on in France despite the lack of reporting. UK slowing.

Gotta love the "unexpected" bit.

Oh dear...

 

Edited by AdamoMucci

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2 minutes ago, koala_bear said:

China is buying lots less industrial equipment (down 40% in some areas since mid 2016) and cars.

And their property market faltering. Economic growth slowing too.

UK property nearly flat. Australian property a disaster. Big US cities struggling. Canada.

This damn Brexit is causing absolute chaos. Its Armageddon. Or is it Russia doing it? I can never remember which!

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4 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

How much time do we have before it hits us?

It won't. We have Carney being vigilant remember. 

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4 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

How much time do we have before it hits us?

Dont official data only observe recessions in retrospect? I wouldnt trust any of their data....

Yanis forecast this quite easily, ....meaning I believe everyword that comes out of his mouth.

from approx. 20:00 

 

 

Better to panic first, than be trampled in the rush for the exit...

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

How much time do we have before it hits us?

It already has, but Brexit's been scapegoated for it. The UK economy's been at stall speed for at least a year now.

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An economy that relies on exporting high quality manufactured goods is more likely to register a worldwide down turn first, before one where the government pays people to do nails for 15 hours a week. 

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3 hours ago, Maximus Skepticus said:

Dont official data only observe recessions in retrospect? I wouldnt trust any of their data....

Yanis forecast this quite easily, ....meaning I believe everyword that comes out of his mouth.

from approx. 20:00 

 

 

Better to panic first, than be trampled in the rush for the exit...

 

 

 

Thanks for posting this link. Varoufakis is a clever, eloquent man and, amongst other things, he gives some brilliant examples of the terrible design of the Euro. It's not just bad for the European periphery but bad for Germany too. Didn't realise so many Germans were worse off than they were 15 years ago.

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1 hour ago, nothernsoul said:

An economy that relies on exporting high quality manufactured goods is more likely to register a worldwide down turn first, before one where the government pays people to do nails for 15 hours a week. 

Sort of goes against all the sons of toil on here who say we are doomed because we don’t make things.

Selling a £100 million film project to the Saudi’s or the Qatari’s and getting paid in dollars or the local currency is every bit an export as selling a 3 series to a Londoner - we are very good at the former 

We also have a very nice line in metal bashing when it comes to weapons something the Germans don’t

Perhaps our highly developed service industries which generate billions in exports will be part of the solution not the problem 

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4 hours ago, GregBowman said:

Selling a £100 million film project to the Saudi’s or the Qatari’s and getting paid in dollars or the local currency is every bit an export as selling a 3 series to a Londoner - we are very good at the former 

For a typical $100,000,000 'Made in Britain' movie:

  • The money comes from Hollywood.
  • $95,000,000 goes to the stars and director, most of whom aren't British.
  • $5,000,000 goes on actually making the movie, so much of that does stay in the UK.
  • The producers probably get more than $5,000,000 in tax breaks, so overall it's a loss to the UK.
  • The profits go back to Hollywood.
4 hours ago, GregBowman said:

We also have a very nice line in metal bashing when it comes to weapons something the Germans don’t 

Like what? The British government even had to get Germans to take over the British Army's assault rifle to make it work properly. Military aircraft are pretty much gone. I believe even the missiles are mostly international collaborations these days?

I do own some British weapons, so we certainly used to make good ones, but the youngest is about to have its sixtieth birthday.

As for Germany's collapsing manufacturing, the Germans are pushing it out of the country with their insane 'Green' energy policies, and Trump is bringing outsourced manufacturing back to America. Countries that rely on exports for their economy don't do too well when their foreign customers stop buying.

Edit: come to think of it, I did buy a Webley air pistol a little while ago. But it was made in Taiwan.

Edited by MarkG

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18 hours ago, AdamoMucci said:

And their property market faltering. Economic growth slowing too.

UK property nearly flat. Australian property a disaster. Big US cities struggling. Canada.

This damn Brexit is causing absolute chaos. Its Armageddon. Or is it Russia doing it? I can never remember which!

And this...Brexit too:

 

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/97553/barfoots-says-auckland-property-market-ended-2018-edging-towards-its-first-decline

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4 hours ago, MarkG said:

For a typical $100,000,000 'Made in Britain' movie:

  • The money comes from Hollywood.
  • $95,000,000 goes to the stars and director, most of whom aren't British.
  • $5,000,000 goes on actually making the movie, so much of that does stay in the UK.
  • The producers probably get more than $5,000,000 in tax breaks, so overall it's a loss to the UK.
  • The profits go back to Hollywood.

Only if you assume that the movie would have been made in Britain anyway, without the tax breaks - which I suspect is false.

In your example, if the tax breaks cause the movie to be made here instead of elsewhere, the UK economy is getting $5 million it otherwise wouldn't have got (it goes to the film industry, not the government, but that's still money for the UK)

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32 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said:

They should offer Mark Carney a job!

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Japanese PM had this week been appealing to Theresa May to avoid a no deal brexit for the sake of the world economy.

Could it really be the excuse tptb are seeking?

Edited by Si1

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24 minutes ago, Si1 said:

They should offer Mark Carney a job!

The Australian Central Bank is already chockful of scientifically illiterate tools. They certainly don't need another.

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1 hour ago, Captain Kirk said:

quote - " the plunge in property prices destroys household wealth and consumer spending "...I love this attitude.  HPI forever.

Doesn't anyone calculate the squeeze on consumer spending arising from folk having to pay astronomical prices for housing...??!!

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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

Japanese PM had this week been appealing to Theresa May to avoid a no deal brexit for the sake of the world economy.

Could it really be the excuse tptb are seeking?

So a town and a bridge between north and south Ireland could nominally be the excuse required for a global reset?

 

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1 hour ago, Wayward said:

quote - " the plunge in property prices destroys household wealth and consumer spending "...I love this attitude.  HPI forever.

Doesn't anyone calculate the squeeze on consumer spending arising from folk having to pay astronomical prices for housing...??!!

Yep, cheaper housing means people have more money left over to spend on consumables.

The whole 'wealth effect' pursuit of central banks snuffs out consumption among people with little or no debt and encourages debt junkies, who are already too broke to consume, to load up on more debt and go buy that new Range Rover.

 

Edited by Captain Kirk

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3 hours ago, Captain Kirk said:

Yep, cheaper housing means people have more money left over to spend on consumables.

The whole 'wealth effect' pursuit of central banks snuffs out consumption among people with little or no debt and encourages debt junkies, who are already too broke to consume, to load up on more debt and go buy that new Range Rover.

 

Exactly - the lower interest rates the more I have to save for retirement and the less I spend now........

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8 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Only if you assume that the movie would have been made in Britain anyway, without the tax breaks - which I suspect is false.

In your example, if the tax breaks cause the movie to be made here instead of elsewhere, the UK economy is getting $5 million it otherwise wouldn't have got (it goes to the film industry, not the government, but that's still money for the UK)

This sort of argument always sounds very dubious to me. If all the promises of tax breaks creating wealth were true, we would all be rich from stealng each other's industries. I expect the answer is it just displaces actual productive wealth generation.

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  • 297 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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