Halifax January 2019

[Andy T]

Who buys a house with a Halifax mortgage anyway? not exactly competitive.

Is it skewed by older movers/remortgage?

[hurlerontheditch]

1 minute ago, Andy T said:

Who buys a house with a Halifax mortgage anyway? not exactly competitive.

Is it skewed by older movers/remortgage?

they do lend higher multiples.. so usually people who are desperate to buy who will pay full asking price to get "on the ladder"

[Freezer? Best place for it]

12 minutes ago, pizza said:

How can Nationwide have -0.7% and Halifax have +2.2% for the same month?  That is such a huge discrepancy.

Massive V.I., unaudited data - they are very unlikely to talk-down the “Market”.

Would you? - I wouldn’t..

[btd1981]

23 minutes ago, pizza said:

How can Nationwide have -0.7% and Halifax have +2.2% for the same month?  That is such a huge discrepancy.

Because Halifax give people extra

[frederico]

Lol, haters gonna hate, it is what it is.

Until rates really start to rise along with unemployment we won't see any real change.

Trouble is TPTB have the means and the will to interfere with the market in order to avoid embarrassment.

[rantnrave]

BBC Snippet:

Property shortage is boosting house prices

Don't be fooled by those positive Halifax house price figures, says north London estate agent Jeremy Leaf."At first glance the Halifax numbers are really positive as they reflect a time of particular political uncertainty and the height of Brexit turmoil," he said."But when taken with the recent fall in transactions it is clear that the increase has more to do with a shortage of stock rather than a bounce back in the market generally."

[winkie]

Measures taken to avoid a crash out HPC on its own will mean very little, it is what is happening all about it that will determine the sentiment of peoples feelings of wealthiness, security and harmony.....😉

[Captain Kirk]

Quote

... completed house sales fell 4.5%

The New Buyer Enquiries gauge fell to -21% in the latest results from -15% previously, indicating property purchasers are more cautious.

Further to this the Newly Agreed Sales net balance moved to -15% from -10% indicating a decline in national sales transactions.

Doesn't really fit with an increase in prices does it?

[rantnrave]

18 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said:

Doesn't really fit with an increase in prices does it?

I think prices are slowly on the way down, as captured by the annual figure. The monthly figures are becoming increasingly erratic, most likely stemming from low volumes.

We're certainly not at crash cruise speed and firmly in correction territory at the moment.

[stuckmojo]

Ha Ha such ********. Game's up. 

[crazypabs]

I think I just figured it out, there was an increase in Halifax mortgages due to the BTL landlords refinancing to release equity to pay for their MAHOOOOOOOSIVE tax bills in January.

It is the only explanation I can think of.

[neon tetra]

FFS. That 229K is the second highest on record.

And that turd stays in the pipe for another two months, based on their methodology.

[Dorkins]

1 hour ago, frederico said:

Trouble is TPTB have the means and the will to interfere with the market in order to avoid embarrassment.

Do TPTB actually have the means though? UK land is worth something like £7-8tn in total, UK government tax revenues are something like £0.6tn pa. Given how many other things government has to spend its money on (schools, hospitals, pensions etc) I really doubt it can keep land at >2x long term mean value forever. The government is just one more actor in the market.

Maybe if they think outside the box and use their monopoly on force to march young couples into estate agents at gunpoint and force them to sign on the dotted line for that 5x joint income mortgage.

[Ghostly]

2 hours ago, pizza said:

How can Nationwide have -0.7% and Halifax have +2.2% for the same month?  That is such a huge discrepancy.

Both indices only cover lending by that bank, therefore they will have different underlying data, cover different regions, etc.

Land Registry/LSL is considered more comprehensive although even that has exclusions.

[LetsBuild]

39 minutes ago, neon tetra said:

FFS. That 229K is the second highest on record.

And that turd stays in the pipe for another two months, based on their methodology.

Well it needed to be a healthy MoM value or they were looking at a negative YoY - how convenient. The good news is that these turds sit in the pipe of the entire year - the last time an anomaly like this happened was in March and was immediately corrected the following month - but come this March it is going to count against them big style. Basically they can fiddle the books for so long but eventually it comes back to haunt them.

[Trump Invective]

For the last few months there has been some extreme expectation dampening by the "experts" in their comments on these releases. Do they fear another round of significant price increases, because they know the market is already dead re: transactions?

[InlikeFlynn]

5 hours ago, pizza said:

How can Nationwide have -0.7% and Halifax have +2.2% for the same month?  That is such a huge discrepancy.

Tiny sample size, therefore lots of statistical noise.  These monthly figures are not significant, indeed the Halifax and Nationwide indices are deeply flawed. Try acadadata or the ONS for a more dependable view of the market.

[Voice of Doom]

6 hours ago, rantnrave said:

I think prices are slowly on the way down, as captured by the annual figure. The monthly figures are becoming increasingly erratic, most likely stemming from low volumes.

We're certainly not at crash cruise speed and firmly in correction territory at the moment.

This is my view too. I'm not too perturbed by the odd positive figure. It will probably lead to a tastier negative figure in a month or two which will attract the headline writers.

[Kosmin]

9 hours ago, localhero1983 said:

So these homeowners right now with all that is going on have decided to buy property at the most expensive prices in UK history LOL LOL LOL LOL

Unless inflation has fallen to 1.3% this report indicates that prices are cheaper now than a year ago.

[Wayward]

9 hours ago, localhero1983 said:

So these homeowners right now with all that is going on have decided to buy property at the most expensive prices in UK history LOL LOL LOL LOL

If anyone deserves zero sympathy when things turn inevitably worse these people are it

Close your eyes and buy the new highs.

This number is very convenient for TPTB..sounds a signal to the plebs....the message is...think a correction is coming due to Brexit etc..?? well think again. Give up hope and get back to work so you can pay the rent.

[disenfranchised]

I wonder if part of the discrepancy has to do with geographical coverage of the lender.

If you took data from a London based small building society to build an indices, it would have been YOY negative already? 

Could also be down to targeting different market sectors. I'd much rather see negative, but the market looks about ready to pop.

[happyguy]

Funny thing is before the Halifax released their numbers some people  were saying they cannot wait to see them.

When they see they are not showing a drop they say the Halifax numbers are rubbish

LOL :) 

On 08/01/2019 at 08:54, hurlerontheditch said:

they do lend higher multiples.. so usually people who are desperate to buy who will pay full asking price to get "on the ladder"

Halifax is the biggest lender in the uk - I wanted to get a 15k ,loan to pout in a new kitchen on a house which has no mortgage and I have a1 credit rating

After 30 minutes of an affordability interview on the phone I said I would leave it and take the money from an ISA

To suggest they are lax in lending is certainly not my experience 

On 08/01/2019 at 09:18, rantnrave said:

Property shortage is boosting house prices

I said this would happen if people decide to stay put due to Brexit fears, even negative equity there will be a lack of stock - 

On 08/01/2019 at 11:08, crazypabs said:

I think I just figured it out, there was an increase in Halifax mortgages due to the BTL landlords refinancing to release equity to pay for their MAHOOOOOOOSIVE tax bills in January.

It is the only explanation I can think of.

evidence please 

[Si1]

Yes happyguy. Negative equity can only be positive for house prices.

Be careful of zebra crossings.

[crazypabs]

15 minutes ago, happyguy said:

evidence please 

maybe I should have been more sarcastic, you took me too literal

[mrtickle]

On 08/01/2019 at 11:09, neon tetra said:

FFS. That 229K is the second highest on record.

And that turd stays in the pipe for another two months, based on their methodology.

Very good way of putting it.