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53 minutes ago, neon tetra said:

From my calculations, the average price has to fall from 224,694 to below 223,201 (-0.6% MoM) for the YoY to go negative.

The Nationwide index was down £1,763 for December, so I think YoY negative for the Halifax index is quite possible tomorrow.

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5 hours ago, pizza said:

The Nationwide index was down £1,763 for December, so I think YoY negative for the Halifax index is quite possible tomorrow.

If it is not I want to know who are these dumb people who are paying the highest in history at this moment in time

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59 minutes ago, longgone said:

5% a month for the next 12 months would do me 

Too much too quick.

That would take out a lot more than house prices at that rate,  1.5%-3% Max would do just fine over an 18 month plus period  thank you.

Edited by localhero1983

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1 minute ago, localhero1983 said:

Too much too quick.

That would take out a lot more than house prices at that rate,  1.5%-3% Max would do just fine over an 18 month plus period  thank you.

i have nothing to lose apart for cash in the bank 

4 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

If it is not I want to know who are these dumb people who are paying the highest in history at this moment in time

you questioned and answered yourself already

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4 minutes ago, longgone said:

i have nothing to lose apart for cash in the bank 

you questioned and answered yourself already

Just drove back from Cambridge and listened to a phone in on debt on BBC Radio 5, right from the start and yet again they made the point "but of course we are not talking about mortgage debt here", like mortgage debt is totally OK, it's only unsecured debt that we need to worry about. 

It is not just that people can be so dumb, it really is ingrained into people to borrow for houses is good at any level. For so long now I have tried to make the point that mortgage debt is the number one villain here, it's huge mortgage debt and the fear and desperation in paying it off monthly that I am willing to bet is causing higher and dangerous credit card debt/personal loans misuse.

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3 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

Just drove back from Cambridge and listened to a phone in on debt on BBC Radio 5, right from the start and yet again they made the point "but of course we are not talking about mortgage debt here", like mortgage debt is totally OK, it's only unsecured debt that we need to worry about. 

It is not just that people can be so dumb, it really is ingrained into people to borrow for houses is good at any level. For so long now I have tried to make the point that mortgage debt is the number one villain here, it's huge mortgage debt and the fear and desperation in paying it off monthly that I am willing to bet is causing higher and dangerous credit card debt/personal loans misuse.

because houses always go up apparently  that is good for the banks as they can always repo and resell. not so good if they have gone down in value and the debtor needs to find the difference. 

in reality all of it is bad someone needs to pay it back.  can you be secure your business or job will still be around in 20-30 years to pay back 100k`s of money ? 

but then i am too cautious for my own good.

The sick thing is had i been working and bought a house back in 2008 2009 it probably would have been paid off by now and be worth 600-700k. mortgage free at 40.  as i had my savings pot at 31-32. 

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4 minutes ago, longgone said:

because houses always go up apparently  that is good for the banks as they can always repo and resell. not so good if they have gone down in value and the debtor needs to find the difference. 

in reality all of it is bad someone needs to pay it back.  can you be secure your business or job will still be around in 20-30 years to pay back 100k`s of money ? 

but then i am too cautious for my own good.

The sick thing is had i been working and bought a house back in 2008 2009 it probably would have been paid off by now and be worth 600-700k. mortgage free at 40.  as i had my savings pot at 31-32. 

Just hold fire, I have substantial savings also, but it is irrelevant in my opinion, just being debt free is going to become the new black, having savings will be a massive bonus.

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40 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

Too much too quick.

That would take out a lot more than house prices at that rate,  1.5%-3% Max would do just fine over an 18 month plus period  thank you.

Dragging out an HPC over a long period of time would likely do more damage than having it quickly as more people would buy in on the way down and quickly go into negative equity. If the market finds its new level rapidly there will be fewer people on the wrong side of it.

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26 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Dragging out an HPC over a long period of time would likely do more damage than having it quickly as more people would buy in on the way down and quickly go into negative equity. If the market finds its new level rapidly there will be fewer people on the wrong side of it.

I do agree, but dropping 60% in one massive yearly hit would be too much of a shock as nice as it might sound🙂

But I also do not want to see a boiling frog scenario where it drags out and people are unaware that they have been financially hit with their property con as a corrupt media and government ween them onto a "all is well" narrative., which again so many people will be dumb enough to believe just like so many believed we recovered from the 2008 financial crisis.

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So these homeowners right now with all that is going on have decided to buy property at the most expensive prices in UK history LOL LOL LOL LOL

If anyone deserves zero sympathy when things turn inevitably worse these people are it

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YoY still trending down. Lets see which figure the MSM are all over (BBC, I'm looking at you)

This new data is a whisker off beating the previous peak in mid 2018.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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