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localhero1983

Where will money making possibilities come from into the next economic/property crash?

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Personally I have no doubts that a house price correction is on it's way, sorry, but giving an exact prediction is foolish, but it could well be far sooner than those waiting and now jaded think it could be. I have been planning for several years now, my business is doing well, no debt and I have very decent savings. I could quite easily handle a 60%+ drop in profits should a economic crisis hit us, and to be honest I do expect a property crash to go hand in hand with a pretty nasty recession or worse. And before some have a go at me for willing misery on others, I am not willing anything I am just expecting it, just like you would expect a 50 mile comet strike to inflict a calamity on earth and prepare, I am doing the same.

My question though, I honestly believe that bull markets and bear markets are two sides of the same coin and money can be made in both, once the recession hits along with a collapse in property market, where do you think in the new economic market potential or possibilities will exist?

If you have money, even not all that much, I am sure there will be chances out there giving that you are competing with so many now in massive debt and stuck.

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Not "money making" per se, but I'm mulling over the idea of holding some foreign currencies as a Brexit hedge, while Gold an Bitcoin might be a reasonable insurance policy for when the markets finally correct (wish I'd done all of these before the Brexit vote). That said I have zero investment savvy nor market insight so you're probably better off doing precisely the opposite of what I suggest ;)

Oh, also looking at buying into currently inflated assets once they correct; but really only because they're things I'd like / I need (rather than as a speculative investment) and I refuse to buy them now at silly prices. Chances are they'll only correct to near what they should have been before all the cheap money anyway..

Edited by ftb_fml

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Markets are always get flooded with something in a downturn apart from houses, the only thing I will never touch is property speculation/BTL, houses have been and always will be just somewhere to live as far as I am concerned, even if it is profitable.

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Taking 2009 onward to about 2015 as GFC model, I've seen some excellent opportunities such as Kames Ethical fund. Another GFC might have similar opportunities. Wish I hadn't sold my Pictec Robotics in 2016. At the moment holding only some Gold, Silver and Platinum. Keeping powder dry, perhaps looking for some dividend paying stocks later.

I never put more than 20% of my money on this stuff because I have a job and a business so don't have enough time to get as informed for higher confidence. Regardless though, you shouldn't put all eggs into a non-FSCS insured basket anyway.

I would like to get into Forex, but sort of am in that my business gets paid a lot in USD, and to a lesser extent other countries from all over the world such as CA DE IN GB IT MY PH HU AU CH RU NL NO so the lower the pound the more I make on these exports.

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The main price that needs to correct is wages vs asset prices, so a good bet would be to become a young worker in possession of many years of future wages. Hope this helps.

Edited by Dorkins

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17 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

Taking 2009 onward to about 2015 as GFC model, I've seen some excellent opportunities such as Kames Ethical fund. Another GFC might have similar opportunities. Wish I hadn't sold my Pictec Robotics in 2016. At the moment holding only some Gold, Silver and Platinum. Keeping powder dry, perhaps looking for some dividend paying stocks later.

I never put more than 20% of my money on this stuff because I have a job and a business so don't have enough time to get as informed for higher confidence. Regardless though, you shouldn't put all eggs into a non-FSCS insured basket anyway.

I would like to get into Forex, but sort of am in that my business gets paid a lot in USD, and to a lesser extent other countries from all over the world such as CA DE IN GB IT MY PH HU AU CH RU NL NO so the lower the pound the more I make on these exports.

I have a five figure sum saved, six if you include my pension savings. I have spread the risk only slightly, not nearly as much as I need to. I am quite happy though should the s**t hit the fan is put £20-£25k to one side to take some calculated risks in this new era., what they will be I have no idea yet. as for the rest, I am getting a little panicky about not saying it inflated away by a desperate government.

All I know is when things turn bad and people have high debt and little money they need to off load in desperation for the bare essentials and that's where you get bargains. And no I don't  and won't feel guilt anyone who asks, after the crap so many non homeowners have had to put up with smug people bragging about their housing profits for so long

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6 hours ago, Dorkins said:

The main price that needs to correct is wages vs asset prices, so a good bet would be to become a young worker in possession of many years of future wages. Hope this helps.

Agreed - but that can only be achieved by young workers thinking about the future and opting for training/education in subjects that will give them a real job.  The soft degrees such as sociology psychology etc are worthless in the workplace and always will be.  

 

55 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

All I know is when things turn bad and people have high debt and little money they need to off load in desperation for the bare essentials and that's where you get bargains. And no I don't  and won't feel guilt anyone who asks, after the crap so many non homeowners have had to put up with smug people bragging about their housing profits for so long

I do not know any home-owners who feel smug - most buy a home as a home.  If prices go up or down it is all relative when you move.  In my experience the people here think far more about house prices than home owners.  I am interested in the thread as I am amazed at how high prices have become but personally I do  not care  if prices fall as I have no intention of moving and if I did the price of the onward purchase would also have fallen.

 Here it is then the 1st thread ok the year promising economic Armageddon 

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21 hours ago, localhero1983 said:

where do you think in the new economic market potential or possibilities will exist?

Stockbrokers will be rubbing their hands - when a market crashes is when there is big money to be made on shorts - maybe set up a pay day loan company ???     :) 

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Any business dealing with the old and or automation will be good bets in the future.

The highest paying low skilled work around here is in the care sector.

That cash and asset pile is going to flip into reverse soon as the holders need someone to wipe their bums.in dotage.

 

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2 hours ago, happyguy said:

Agreed - but that can only be achieved by young workers thinking about the future and opting for training/education in subjects that will give them a real job.  The soft degrees such as sociology psychology etc are worthless in the workplace and always will be.  

 

I do not know any home-owners who feel smug - most buy a home as a home.  If prices go up or down it is all relative when you move.  In my experience the people here think far more about house prices than home owners.  I am interested in the thread as I am amazed at how high prices have become but personally I do  not care  if prices fall as I have no intention of moving and if I did the price of the onward purchase would also have fallen.

 Here it is then the 1st thread ok the year promising economic Armageddon 

And yet another indignant  homeowner who comes onto HPC who "is not all that interested where house prices go", I don't believe a word of it, why here?

But I do agree, there are many who just want somewhere to live, some who don't care where property prices go(not many), but you are not one of them Buddy.

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52 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

And yet another indignant  homeowner who comes onto HPC who "is not all that interested where house prices go", I don't believe a word of it, why here?

But I do agree, there are many who just want somewhere to live, some who don't care where property prices go(not many), but you are not one of them Buddy.

It's not hard to understand. Many people buy somewhere because they find living somewhere someone else owns objectionable. Prices go up, prices go down, so what? You couldn't realistically sell to make a profit considering the cost of moving. Hardly anyone speculates on owning 1 house because you still need a place to live. Only people with 0 houses or more than one house care about HPI. That is the genius/evil of HPI. At birth, everyone is short 0.5 of a house. 

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16 hours ago, bushblairandbrown said:

It's not hard to understand. Many people buy somewhere because they find living somewhere someone else owns objectionable. Prices go up, prices go down, so what? You couldn't realistically sell to make a profit considering the cost of moving. Hardly anyone speculates on owning 1 house because you still need a place to live. Only people with 0 houses or more than one house care about HPI. That is the genius/evil of HPI. At birth, everyone is short 0.5 of a house. 

That's not true.

Anyone who one day intends to
- Sell their house and buy a bigger one, or
- Sell their house and buy a smaller one

Also has a vested interest in low/high prices.

Only someone who owns exactly 1 house AND never ever intends to sell it have no skin in the game, which boils down to just a few old grannies.  For the rest of the country it's a critical life factor one way or the other.

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I would say mobile people with one house are interested in HPI.

All the people aiming to retire in southern Europe wishes for HPI to happen on this side of the Channel. 

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I had a moment of clarity sleeping last night🙂

I started this thread knowing I wanted to say something that was kind of clear in my subconscious, but just could not make myself clear. I dream't last night about the coming year and felt more energized than I already had been feeling starting this year. For the last 15 years we have been living in what IMO is a delusional economy which I mostly did not take part in.

I have created a business that is thriving and can take a huge hit, I live a thrifty lifestyle where I probably get more joy in life for 1/10 the cost of what people throw at a superficial lifestyle that I bet rarely hits the spot. This weekend I have been walking the coast of Northumberland with a few Guinness's thrown in, just wish it had been fat colder. My debt is zero, savings are good and I am in good health and waiting for opportunities which I think are around the corner.

This delusional economy I am talking where we discuss one of it's biggest downfalls in expensive housing is close to collapse. Imagine the 1930 Wall street crash where people were profiting from something that was always going to fall, they invested totally in it and when the house of cards collapsed many threw themselves of high builders rather than face a life with what they had lost. Well the same is about to happen here, many have invested in this delusional economy and have used huge debt to do so. We are reaching a point now where the chickens are coming home to roost, Brexit this week will only be a small part of it.

Imagine the people who in the next couple of years, probably far sooner, who will wake up in the morning with hardly any energy trying to cope with the delusional wealth(property as well) they have now lost. Many of us already live in that world, and many of us using myself as an example already are living are  full lives, imagine competing with people who have all but given up 🙂

Of course many will reach the acceptance stage, but they have a way to go. What we see as opportunities they will see as a very poor 2nd best as many whine about how great it once was. This is what I meant when I started this thread I think, we will start a UK downturn with full batteries and eager to get started,

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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